Wednesday 4th May 2022

j@utis

Chester 2:40 Night Battle 10/3, she looked impressive on her debut last month, Doyle is in the saddle, she should be in the mix tomorrow. Paddy's giving money back on the placers, so let's do it.

Konny Rool

A couple of short ones that may be vulnerable/underpriced, and a few alternatives

4.50 Gowran Park Georgeta 2/5 too short in my opinion for what she's done in two races. Think Anthony McCann's horse Empress Of Bough is worth a small e/w bet at 100/1. He's had a recent winner as well with Land Afar yesterday in the Ballinrobe Bumper.

1.15 Newton Abbot Hang In There is another 2/5 shot. Only a three horse race, but he's having his first run in a chase. I'd much rather be on the Nicholls horse here. Wild Max came 2nd in his first run in a chase in March. He's 13/8 and I'd rather be on him in this. Hang In There is regular leader in his previous (and good quality too - some grade 2s and 3s) hurdles races at the trip of today. Will be pressure on his jumping if Wild Max is running right behind or close to him.

2.25 Newton Abbot Largy G 8/11 This one's price looks right, and I don't know what beats her. She won a Class 1 novice hurdle at Newbury on her last outing, but she had a low weight then. She has also a second C/D from last year. I think she's likely winner but is very short.

3.00 Newton Abbot Duke Of Bronte Another 8/11 shot. He was with Millman on the flat, went to Skelton's and had three hurdle runs, and is now back to have his first run since rejoining the Millman yard. Have not looked at the opposition, but today's race is 2m and a bit, on supposedly good ground, whereas his other three runs for Skelton were over further. He won the middle one of those over 2miles 3furlongs on soft ground at Doncaster in a class 4 hurdle. I couldn't have him at them cramped odds.

2.50 Kelso Bravo Team 11/10 Gordon Elliot's horse is very short here. Perhaps improvement is expected going up in trip. He won a PtP but that was on soft/heavy going. At a bigger price, Charlie Uberalles can be backed at 25/1 here. First run in a proper race, but came 2nd in two of his PtPs. They were on good ground. Miss Russell's horse Domandlouis is 13/2 and he's having his first run in a handicap. Perhaps Bravo Team will win but he looks like he should be bigger priced to me.

3.20 Kelso Big Nasty 10/11 Only one win from 13 chase starts. I'm backing Ecossais 9/4 to put it up to him. He looks like he might lead in this and has a previous 2nd over C/D from March last year. Miss Russell has Rapid Raider 10/3 in this who should also put it up to the favourite. Big Nasty is too short here I feel, has a massive weight and has never won beyond three miles. Does have good form in races with only a few runners, but there's too much negatives about him. Maybe will consider doing a reverse forecast with the 2nd+3rd favs here. Shark Hanlon's Yaiza makes up the quartet, but maybe his trainer promised him a holiday away with the lads, as Dalileo and The Hogan Stand also run at the course - in two separate races. I think Dalileo has a chance in the 2.15 at 8/1. He won before at Perth, so maybe he likes Scotland. Maybe he wouldn't get on the boat without his mates with him.

5.00 Fontwell Coal Stock 7/5 Has had lots of trainers. Has won all three of his races from making all, or at least making most in them victories. Heure De Gloire had success last time out from making all over a shorter trip, which was a change of her recent tactics. Vorashann also likes to be up towards the front. Pasvolsky also likes to lead in his races and is 4/1. He won over 2.5 miles when making all at Plumpton last December, and perhaps he is another who likes things his own way, but I'm liking the look of his last race, and even though his price isn't massive he'll do me as an each way bet in this.

3.10 Chester New London 1/3 Is very short to me. He's stepping up 2furlongs in trip and participates in a far better quality race than his first two - which he did win - with them both over 10furlongs. I like Aidan O'Brien's Changingoftheguard 9/2 a lot here. He might well make all like he did when winning a similar trip at Dundalk last time out. It was only a maiden, but it proves he can stay the trip.

good luck

2ndcoming

In fairness I haven't checked in on this forum in a while, but if that's not the single best post anyone has ever put up here I'm not sure what is....

Konny Rool

7.10 Fontwell

Juniper might lead here in a race that's wide open, and indeed wide open to interpretation too. Plenty of PtP form which gives a lot of these six chances; even if one is scratching their head based on the hurdles form shown, and the potential doubts a punter might have regards their pick staying this extended 3m 1f trip.

Ballycamus may also try lead as well, or at least lie up with the pace.

I have plumped for My Bad Lucy here, but it's not much more than a token pick really.

The only horse I think I can safely rule out here is Dark Heather, but looking at her form she would be a lot of folks pick as one who can't win. No such thing as that, and her backers can have their hopes bolstered by her latest run, which saw her improve for the step up in trip up to just shy of 3m. That form won't be good enough, but she has seen money, and horses can improve too!

Backing My Bad Lucy 7/1 just for the sake of a bet really. His latest two runs were in Class 4 Novices hurdles, and it's for this reason that I think he should be up to, or ahead of his mark for this Class 4 handicap. Staying is a slight concern, and is somewhat mitigated by his last PtP run, although he did seem to come under the pump about 1/2 mile out in a kind of race where staying is that bit easier than at a similar trip over the lower obstacles.

Only a small win or each way (2 places) on the Gifford horse, as it's a lottery to me, but the price is punter-friendly.

Pity about the last two of my 'underpriced/vulnerable' picks; as was ticking along nicely before that.

Konny Rool

7.40 Fontwell

Belle Jour has been well supported and is in to 9/2 from 9/1. He sports a first time visor in this race, but for the life of me I'm not seeing how he has any chance on form in this. Most of the top half, on form, should beat him. That's if he even manages to somehow put up a bold showing, which I doubt. Only his 2nd run in a chase too, and the first was cr@p. Was well supported then as well. Will go with me head, and not the money, and lay her for a place at just about 2.0, and for 4 plcs at 1.6..

My 7.10 pick is a non,,

j@utis

Great call on Changingoftheguard in 3:10 Chester, Konny!

On the other hand, Night Battle didn't enjoy the soft underfoot conditions today in 2:40, I will keep her in the notebook to see how she runs on better ground.

Konny Rool

thank you very much j@utis - was happy he won so easy :D

hope your luck improves - I wasn't expecting soft ground there either.

pottokblue

Well done on 250 Kelso where you got the forecast and I got the placepot, my orginal selection was the elliot horse but after reading your snippet I decided to add Domandlouis.

pottokblue

2.50 Kelso Bravo Team 11/10 Gordon Elliot's horse is very short here. Perhaps improvement is expected going up in trip. He won a PtP but that was on soft/heavy going. At a bigger price, Charlie Uberalles can be backed at 25/1 here. First run in a proper race, but came 2nd in two of his PtPs. They were on good ground. Miss Russell's horse Domandlouis is 13/2 and he's having his first run in a handicap. Perhaps Bravo Team will win but he looks like he should be bigger priced to me.

Dont know how to edit my post so just reposting Konnys snippet that turned a losing day to a profitable day for me!

Konny Rool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018184#Comment_119018184

Dont know how to edit my post 

If you're on a laptop you can hit the 3 dots beside your post no, which is at the top of your post. So the three dots beside #8 - just tap them for the option. On the other hand, if you're posting on a mobile, I think you need to be a tech guru to do anything on here using that device 😃 - that's based on my reading of the gripes other posters have about it in the feedback threads :) I tapped one of my own posts and apparently there's 24hrs from originally posting to make any changes to the post. For future reference like :D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018082#Comment_119018082

Glad my ''knowledge'' made somebody somewhere some coin pottokblue !