Tuesday 26th April 2022

2.20 Brighton OTAGO ~ 12s e/w

Open race this,, the ~ 5/2 paper favourite Kondratiev Way doesn't exactly jump off the page on form,, doesn't have much form on turf, and nor has he ever won over 7fs (about 10yds shy of that trip is this race) ,, he is a potential frontrunner in this,, Like the favourite, and going on their course/course and distance form/runnings, Porterinthejungle & Kendergarten Kop are also likely leaders,, this is why i don't wanna be on either of the latter two atm - might 'cut each others' necks' and go too fast..

might try make a case for one o these at a later stage  

Otago is likely to be held up, but the worry is that he might be too detached to get involved on this good to firm (provisional) going... #even at the prices, he's not the confidententest of picks, but is definitely capable of a place here at least, and Pat Cosgrave won this edition last year,,

# will do to start the thread anyways 😋 had a quick look at racecards (bar Punchestown) and this was the first race I saw that was worth a second look..

might give it a third look at some stage 😃

GL

Still trying to solve same race,, am still of the opinion that Kondratiev Way is eminently opposable in the 2.20.,,

Two others I think I can overrule here too, as far as winning goes.. Upon further reflection I think that the winner comes from a make-all, or chasing-the-pace run, and if Mobarhin ~ 7/2 and Verreaux Eagle ~ 7/1 try this, then I don't think they see out the ~ 7f trip here,,

Will go with a C & D winner here in the shape of PORTERINTHEJUNGLE ~ 7/1 ew here,, has similar CD winning form to Kendergarten Kop ~ 12/1, in that they've both won by making all over track and trip, before,, They're both out of form, and only seem to go well at the course/on turf, but do very little on AW,, A few runs they've both had recently on the sand, and been mediocre,,, will sort of excuse those runs and give Porterinthejungle the benefit of being less out of form than Kendergarten Kop, and that he's still capable of hitting the lids - moreso that KK - and can get a racewinning lead on the opposition..

Might still do Otago ~ 10s e/w as well,,,

bloody tricky race - wish i had no looked at it now 🤣

j@utis

Batchelor Boy 20/1 takes 2:20 race, you were right about favorites, leff ;)

2:40 Yarm, I like Beauty Choice 5/1 chances, I know he's coming back after long lay-off, and is starting with new but he's also got 7lb claimer on top and is slightly dropping down in class than his last few races. Favorite Special Maison is in my notebook but does he want shorter trip over faster ground, I dunno.

j@utis

Okay... One more for today 5:03 Brighton -  Kath's Toyboy 17/2 as an alternative to very short favorite.

Fav would make appeal at the ~ 2/1 that seemed to be on offer early doors , but way too short to back at 8/11,,, Won an eight runner affair easy as ya like at Bath on Sunday over ~ 50yds shorter than today, when seemed to get run of the race,,,, Hollie not on board today on Macs Dilemma,, Don't know what to do in that Brighton race - probably no bet,,, At some stage, if fav continues to shorten, has to be a lay,, even for a class 6, that was a poor race Macs Dilemma won 2 days ago,, don't have any real opinions on that 5.03, or any other race,, Hard!

gluck with Kath's Toyboy j@u 😊

went for Jack Ryan in this 5.03

unlucky with Kath's Toyboy j@u - was going well there for a while