Sunday 24th April 2022

1.30 Bath GREY GALLEON 9/2 gen win

A race where i think i can rule most of them out,, Grey Galleon is a CD winner on similar ground as tomorrow, from back in 2020,, quite a while back that, and he is out of form overall since then,, has been running mainly in Class 4s and 5s since then, and a few runs on the AW, so, at an admittedly not very generous price, i'll overlook those runs,, a poor looking race and a lot of these i feel would be more suited by an exact 5f,, 5f 160yds is the distance here,,

Another with a chance is MACS DILEMMA ~ 15/8 win,, 4yrs old and is lightly raced on the turf,, was unlucky lto over slightly further in a 6f race,, was a bit of juice in the ground then, and it wasn't ran in a fast time, but looks to have potential,, they may go too fast for Hollie Doyle's mount, but i'd be wanting 5/2 or bigger,,

two picks and the prices are at best fair,, will need to overlook the rest to justify the two selections,,

in no hurry to back either at current prices,, no value atm, and ground conditions are rarely a given ~ 24hrs in advance...

Reasons/Opinions on why i think the rest can't/shouldn't win

Portelet Bay: trip looks too sharp, can win at similar trips on good to firm, but probably wants softer over C&D here going on previous attempts

Secret Potion: looks to need ground described as good, at best,, needs more cut to be fully effective..

Perfect Sign: obvious enough - not good enough

Fact Or Fable: needs further, has only ever won on the AW

Pastfact: hardest one to rule out,, is a C&D winner, but absence is a big negative

Rhubarb: can potentially give a good a/c without winning,, has never won in 25 attempts,, at 20s or bigger, she might be a outsider win only pick, but not for me at current prices,, not many pricing her up - possibly be a nr anyway

Hot Hot Hot: not good enough on turf imo,, might win a race over 5f on the AW, but can't see her doing much here,, similar profile to the other mare Rhubarb, with slightly worse claims i feel..

Gl 😊

pottokblue

YOUREYESONLY win the WildMonarchlisted hurdle 350, allez Rachael ma belle dame!

j@utis

17:15 Wet - PP is paying 4 places, I'm going for National Charter 11/1, based on trainer/jockey stats, and he's upped in trip again, market principals aren't the strongest cases, so anything can happen. GL.

Very tricky that 5.45 race,, 2 lazy to go dahn shoppe, but had a cursory at the ones priced @ 25s or bigger,, pen landed on Peace Angel @ 40/1 ... Sire can get winners at 12f on the AW, and his bairns seem to act on top of the ground,, the pick went close enough over ~ 1.5m at Southwell the last twice,,, will have an imaginary € e/w on Tony Coyle's filly 😂

a place for National Charter who was well backed,, nt 2 shabby 😊

j@utis

Yeah, money back plus a wee bit on top. He didn't have the turn of foot to keep up with the winner, looked very one paced.

Was a hard race to solve j@u that one - getting a 3/5 (ew placed at 11s) winner has to be considered a good result there ☺️

things looking up on thread !