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Netflix stock price dip after ER

  • 20-04-2022 6:57pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭


    Lost 200k subscription and stock price dipped to 4 year ago level.

    dont think other big tech will be good either this quarter.

    especially FB, AMZN.

    maybe We are going to bear market in the next few years.



Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 80,251 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn


    Tesla results at close today, could make things rather interesting if they are also seen as bad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    I work with some clients who have extensive online retail operations. They were flying all last year including Christmas. January was good too if a little subdued, but February March and April have been disastrous.

    On the flip side, those with physical retail have seen good performance of the stores. One person said it was like the last 2 years did not happen and retail has mostly returned to the pattern of pre-covid.

    If you put that against any company that rode the covid / wfh wave, they will have poor reports. Then also combine with less discretionary spending and you will see poor figures from companies in that space



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Am hoping tesla will go north after ER.

    otherwise tomorrow open would be really bad for market.


    Heard Apple iPhone demand drop also.



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Yes stock like WMT is still on top level.

    but FB, pypl, and all the small stocks rise during covid now is at the bottom.

    if you look Nio…



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Tsla up.

    bought 1 share at 980, hope can make my yearly subscription fee back. 😂



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  • Registered Users Posts: 170 ✭✭Mr_Jacko


    TSLA up almost 5% after-hours..



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Bought a NFLX $275 April 22nd Put two days ago for $157 , its currently worth $5000 , biggest ever option trade for me

    Bought a Tesla $1200 call two days ago for $95 but that's unlikely to succeed

    Sometimes you get extra lucky but the trick is not to believe its anymore than luck ,most option trades deliver little



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Tsla IV double kill today I guess



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Airline ER season.

    AAL up 9% this morning after ER.

    all Airbnb cruise line up too



  • Registered Users Posts: 170 ✭✭Mr_Jacko




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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Like I said , I got lucky , can't decide whether to close now with a circa $5600 gain or wait until around 7pm tomorrow evening

    Do options rise towards close out time if underlying price remains the same as today ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Nflx is trying to bounce

    Bill Ackman lost $400m from nflx yesterday

    they said he was targeted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,676 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    There are more factors than price and time. But if you want to look at just theta decay (everything else staying the same) then for your straight option that will cause a decrease over time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Ackman pocketed ( well his company) over a billion two years ago after he made a derivatives bond trade ( short ) around the time covid had the S+P at March 2020 lows

    He makes headlines for his big wins and losses, he lost a tonne on Herbal life circa seven years ago but has a pretty impressive record overall



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,531 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    I don't warm to Ackman that much. I feel like a lot of these gurus that he's trying to manipulate public opinion to his advantage. Buffett and Munger are my 'go to' guys.

    'The Bishops blessed the Blueshirts in Galway, As they sailed beneath the Swastika to Spain'



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭dotsman


    I find the response to Netflix update to be a little tabloid and panicked. The way some people are commenting, they are talking like Netflix is doomed!

    I actually thought the update was actually positive. We always knew that Netflix had received an artificial bump in subscriptions due to the pandemic. And the share price had already dropped 50% from last November to (over) reflect that. But, instead of losing 10's of millions of subscriptions, they are actually holding steady which is great to see. On that, while every media outlet is harping on about "losing" 200K, firstly, that's less than 0.1%, but is also including the fact that they withdrew from Russia which had 700K subs (so they actually added 500K, other than Russia). But more than that, Netflix raised prices recently, which is just pure profit, and didn't result in any subscription loss. Add to that the fact that they are looking to convert even some of the current "sharers" to actual subscriptions, I'm very bullish on the long-term of Netflix.



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    I bought some at 218 yesterday nflx

    lost 200k subscription is one thing

    the main reason is they think growth will slow down a lot due to back to work and recession.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭dotsman


    the main reason is they think growth will slow down a lot due to back to work and recession.

    I get that, but for the share price to fall 70% since November, when everything is going according to predictions (everybody knew growth would slow/stall for a while post pandemic, but long-term outlook is still good) really shows just how short-sight and over-reactive many (retail?) investors are. Or, to put it another way, the share price hasn't been this low since 2017 - basically, the market considers Netflix to be the same today as it was in 2017 when it was much smaller (one third the revenue) and only breaking even on earnings as opposed to today's more than 6.5 billion in earnings and growing strong. Similarly with EPS which has gone from sweet fa to more than 3.5 (and beating expectations by 20%).

    I too added a few more shares to my portfolio at these bargain prices :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    223 today

    Didn’t bother to sell but now down to 214

    the trend looks like going to break 200

    I will be adding more when it’s 200



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Also another thing keep in mind is that back in 2017 there’s no dis+, Hulu

    now nflx have more competition



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  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭Xidu


    Bear market for sure for the next few years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭dotsman


    Good to see that the share price has been growing steadily since this crash and is now back to pre-crash levels within 9 months (despite the overall market performing poorly over this time period). With Netflix subscriptions and revenues continuing to grow at a nice, modest rate, hopefully the share price will keep growing at a nice steady rate for years to come!



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