Netflix stock price dip after ER

Xidu

Lost 200k subscription and stock price dipped to 4 year ago level.

dont think other big tech will be good either this quarter.

especially FB, AMZN.

maybe We are going to bear market in the next few years.

Atlantic Dawn

Tesla results at close today, could make things rather interesting if they are also seen as bad.

macvin

I work with some clients who have extensive online retail operations. They were flying all last year including Christmas. January was good too if a little subdued, but February March and April have been disastrous.

On the flip side, those with physical retail have seen good performance of the stores. One person said it was like the last 2 years did not happen and retail has mostly returned to the pattern of pre-covid.

If you put that against any company that rode the covid / wfh wave, they will have poor reports. Then also combine with less discretionary spending and you will see poor figures from companies in that space

Xidu

Am hoping tesla will go north after ER.

otherwise tomorrow open would be really bad for market.

Heard Apple iPhone demand drop also.

Xidu

Yes stock like WMT is still on top level.

but FB, pypl, and all the small stocks rise during covid now is at the bottom.

if you look Nio…

Xidu

Tsla up.

bought 1 share at 980, hope can make my yearly subscription fee back. 😂

Mr_Jacko

TSLA up almost 5% after-hours..

Mad_maxx

Bought a NFLX $275 April 22nd Put two days ago for $157 , its currently worth $5000 , biggest ever option trade for me

Bought a Tesla $1200 call two days ago for $95 but that's unlikely to succeed

Sometimes you get extra lucky but the trick is not to believe its anymore than luck ,most option trades deliver little

Xidu

Tsla IV double kill today I guess

Xidu

Airline ER season.

AAL up 9% this morning after ER.

all Airbnb cruise line up too

Mr_Jacko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118955406#Comment_118955406

nice trade, well done!

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118957239#Comment_118957239

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118957239#Comment_118957239

Like I said , I got lucky , can't decide whether to close now with a circa $5600 gain or wait until around 7pm tomorrow evening

Do options rise towards close out time if underlying price remains the same as today ?

Xidu

Nflx is trying to bounce

Bill Ackman lost $400m from nflx yesterday

they said he was targeted.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118957406#Comment_118957406

There are more factors than price and time. But if you want to look at just theta decay (everything else staying the same) then for your straight option that will cause a decrease over time.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118958105#Comment_118958105

Ackman pocketed ( well his company) over a billion two years ago after he made a derivatives bond trade ( short ) around the time covid had the S+P at March 2020 lows

He makes headlines for his big wins and losses, he lost a tonne on Herbal life circa seven years ago but has a pretty impressive record overall

patsy_mccabe

I don't warm to Ackman that much. I feel like a lot of these gurus that he's trying to manipulate public opinion to his advantage. Buffett and Munger are my 'go to' guys.

dotsman

I find the response to Netflix update to be a little tabloid and panicked. The way some people are commenting, they are talking like Netflix is doomed!

I actually thought the update was actually positive. We always knew that Netflix had received an artificial bump in subscriptions due to the pandemic. And the share price had already dropped 50% from last November to (over) reflect that. But, instead of losing 10's of millions of subscriptions, they are actually holding steady which is great to see. On that, while every media outlet is harping on about "losing" 200K, firstly, that's less than 0.1%, but is also including the fact that they withdrew from Russia which had 700K subs (so they actually added 500K, other than Russia). But more than that, Netflix raised prices recently, which is just pure profit, and didn't result in any subscription loss. Add to that the fact that they are looking to convert even some of the current "sharers" to actual subscriptions, I'm very bullish on the long-term of Netflix.

Xidu

I bought some at 218 yesterday nflx

lost 200k subscription is one thing

the main reason is they think growth will slow down a lot due to back to work and recession.

dotsman

the main reason is they think growth will slow down a lot due to back to work and recession.

I get that, but for the share price to fall 70% since November, when everything is going according to predictions (everybody knew growth would slow/stall for a while post pandemic, but long-term outlook is still good) really shows just how short-sight and over-reactive many (retail?) investors are. Or, to put it another way, the share price hasn't been this low since 2017 - basically, the market considers Netflix to be the same today as it was in 2017 when it was much smaller (one third the revenue) and only breaking even on earnings as opposed to today's more than 6.5 billion in earnings and growing strong. Similarly with EPS which has gone from sweet fa to more than 3.5 (and beating expectations by 20%).

I too added a few more shares to my portfolio at these bargain prices :)

Xidu

223 today

Didn’t bother to sell but now down to 214

the trend looks like going to break 200

I will be adding more when it’s 200

Xidu

Also another thing keep in mind is that back in 2017 there’s no dis+, Hulu

now nflx have more competition

Xidu

Bear market for sure for the next few years.

dotsman

Good to see that the share price has been growing steadily since this crash and is now back to pre-crash levels within 9 months (despite the overall market performing poorly over this time period). With Netflix subscriptions and revenues continuing to grow at a nice, modest rate, hopefully the share price will keep growing at a nice steady rate for years to come!