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Azores Volcano Watch

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  • Interesting. Haven’t been to Saô Jorge, but visit nearby Saô Miguel a couple of times. There are very frequent small earthquakes around the islands.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,726 ✭✭✭Dillonb3




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,616 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Uplift detected now.

    Update here




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,157 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Looks like swarm activity registered near La Palma



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,616 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest here is that magma has migrated from 18km to 6km depth in the last few days which means an eruption could be soon though still not a guarantee. Evacuations are ongoing.


    Post edited by Kermit.de.frog on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,616 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Update...clear ground uplift deformation. Likelihood of eruption increases

    According to latest calculations, the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (INVOLCAN) estimated that as much as 20 million cubic meters of magma have intruded under the island of São Jorge since last March 19.

    If the figures are correct, the likelihood of a volcanic eruption in the Azores is no longer a small one, and we therefore assign our color code "orange", as a warning of potential activity in the near future.

    For comparison, the initial magma intrusion leading up to last year's eruption on La Palma Island in the Canary Islands was estimated to be only 11 million cubic meters only, while it erupted a total of approx. 300 cu m of magma in the course of the 3-month-long eruption from September-December 2021. The preceding seismic swarm lasted from 13-19 Sep 2021 and is in many ways quite similar to what is being observed now on São Jorge.



    The estimates on magma intrusion volume are based on modeling the observed ground deformation, in particular its vertical inflation, from the analysis of synthetic aperture radar data acquired by the Sentinel-1 satellite of the European Space Agency. This method compares radar images of the same area but obtained on two different dates; small differences in phase variations of the reflected radio waves can be used to detect changes in the relief of the earth's surface on the scale of millimeters.

    The areas with most uplift is near the northeastern coast approx. 10 km east of Velas, where ground uplift has amounted approx. 10 cm alone by now. It can be presumed that the center of the magma source is located under this area.


    (Scenarios)


    1) An eruption takes place within days or weeks from now, with little warning.

    2) The seismic swarm and ground deformation end gradually or abruptly, only to be repeated in months or years from now. Eventually one of these will be leading up to an eruption then.

    3) A stronger earthquake occurs and changes the configuration of the magma intrusion, either to stall or to break through to the surface in an eruption.

    4) Activity dies down, and the magma intrusion at depth slowly cools over years and decades to come with no further activity directly related to it.

    The frequency of the quakes has stabilised a bit in last couple of days.


    Post edited by Kermit.de.frog on


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,616 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There was an earthquake magnitude 3.8, depth 12km just before 10 pm this evening. This is the strongest so far, 1 km from the town of Velas on the south coast (main population center).



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,616 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog



    An update on the seismic crisis here. After a lessening of seismic activity over the last week earthquake swarm activity is on the up again. Latest records show 251 earthquakes mostly of low magnitude in the last 24 hours under or near the island of Sao Jorge which follows an ascending trend in recent days.

    Experts say an eruption is a real possibility but they don't know if it's imminent.



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