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The future for Roscosmos/Baikonur and Vostochny?

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  • 04-03-2022 12:25am
    #1
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,641 ✭✭✭✭


    Where will they get future business and revenues from?

    Sanctions mean that most countries won't touch Roscosmos and Vostochny.

    Can Baikonur secure business from outside Russia? There's a lot more competition nowadays for satellite launching, but maybe not a lot for heavy lift.

    How much money can an economically bankrupt Russia provide Roscosmos?



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    #2
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,816 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    The Russian civil space programme, is dead.

    International cooperative space research and exploration, that includes Russia, is dead.

    Any money that does happen to be left in Russia when it has been economically turned to dust, will be spent on space based weaponry.

    Thanks to the recent uprising in Kazakhstan, put down with the help of Russia, there will be no interest from outside for use of the Baikonur Cosmodrome. We can assume it is now doomed.

    Progress on western Space initiatives, will have to rely entirely on launches from Florida, Vandenberg California or the Guiana space centre.

    I'd be surprised if discussions weren't already underway between the free Western space agencies on this very issue.



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    #3
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,732 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Shouldn't be any downside for SpaceX, India, Japan and China who can do decent lift or the dozens of companies working on small rockets.

    Apart from SpaceX most of the existing large US rockets use Russian or Ukrainian parts or have ended production or both. Blue Origin's Be4 engine still hasn't been flight proven so ULA & co. are running down inventory so 3 Delta Heavy's and 25 Atlas V's, not sure how many Antares left , aren't they making copies of some Russian engines ? ( SLS uses Shuttle left overs but it's been delayed yet again)

    OneWeb have 36 satellites on the pad in Kazakhstan that won't be going anywhere. The Russians have also pulled the plug on supporting Soyuz launches from Guiana. This will affect Galileo launches as Ariane 6 hasn't arrived yet and all the remaining 5's are booked out. So may be some knock on effects. So there may also be legal proceedings for breach of contract which will affect future business and profitability and scare off other customers.

    The ISS uses Russian modules, which could in theory release clamps and float away. But the USA paid for and owns the main one, and cygnus has been upgraded to allow boosts. Life support is still a Russian module. The US has already said the ISS may go in the next 10 years so that may be earlier, as they are concentrating on a new station for moon missions.


    If the Russians don't have enough cash to keep up with Angara development, the Soyuz rocket and Soyuz spacecraft may outlive another yet another generation of replacements. As long as the military needs GPS, communications and spying then Russia will keep spaceflight capability.



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