Friday 4th March 2022

4.55 Dundalk

very tricky race this with a couple of trainers having 5 of the 9 runners here. McAuley has three, and Hogan has two (including likely fav),,, Rocky Dreams is pretty consistent for Hogan, and the paper favourite should give a good account,,, winning - that's another thing,,, will side with Hogan's other horse here ROYAL TRIBUTE ~ 12/1 with Izzy Clifton taking off 7lbs,, don't know what price he'll be, but worth a small win anyway, or each way even, if the 'paper price' of 12/1 is on offer,, Izzy is presumably a capable enough pilot, and the horse has come third and second in both his goes over C & D,, has tried an extra furlong thrice at the course, but 7fs seems a bridge too far.. only had 11 runs in total, and tomorrow's 6f presents a reasonably opportunity..

A lot of these are not in great form, with a few of them stepping down in trip significantly (plenty have been running over ~ 1mile /7 furlongs recently) , so Royal Tribute is a hopeful pick only here to get t'thread rolling..

Gl :)

Royal Tribute a nr 😒 Whatever other opinion/s I had on that race, I've forgotten them 😄

j@utis

So, I'd like to back Camaches in 1:35 lingers in "betting without fav" market and guess what? PP doesn't offer that option today, it's always been there, but today it's only win or e/w, wtf? Favorite Intervention won yesterday and is turn out again today for the 4th in the row.

That's a bummer alright j@u :( good run lto at Chelly in a Class 2,, mebbe they'll do betting w/o on their opening show?

j@utis

I totally have no time for this today, another speculative one, based on splendid course record: Murhib 8/1 in 3:55 lingers, hoping he's race ready after a break. Right, off to work now. Have fun lads.

SonOfGoat

1.35 Lingfield, the second fav mashaan at around 4/5 to be in the first 3 I think is a good bet. Not much in the race and surely it'll be placed.

1.45 Newbury, top of the bill, can't see it being in the first three. Laying 3 places at around 6/4.

2.10 Lingfield, twelfth knight around 11/10. This is a lay bet and my best of the day. Can't for the life of me see this winning. The second fav should win here quite easily in my opinion, but just the lay on twelfth Knight for me.

2.20 Newbury, in the air, around even money. Just finished backing this to win. We t through the race with a fine tooth comb and very confident this horse will win.

Good start Goat :) Never in doubt - Holly hacks up on Mashaan!

And Camachess; a tad unlucky in running but not enough to cost her the win, gets third at a juicy 14/1 for anyone who might've gone e/w on the topweight,, Intervention's winning run ends in a second place, but no one on here really cares about that 😄

SonOfGoat

Last 2 bets of the day for me.

2.45 Lingfield, firepower. I don't like this horse whatsoever here. I'm pretty certain it won't be in the first three places. Laying 3 places at around 7/4 give or take.

SonOfGoat

3.05 Doncaster, the fav boombawn at around 4/5 is good value in my opinion. I've backed at shorter odds in the shops. I think boombawn will win nicely here. That's my lot for the day.

5 from 5 so far Goat.. great picking!

WD 😊

j@utis

What happened there? I'm disappointed with the void result.

I dinna,, was nae watching

SonOfGoat

I've decided to have a bet in the 6.45 Newcastle. I was on the fence about this, this morning. The wigham horse - storm asset at around even money is not great value in my opinion, there is a however. I've learnt the hard way with wigham horses that even if you fancy them, the market is to be watched. I had this horse down as a win the last night and possibly my best bet of the day, but a scandalous drift this morning and I chalked it off. Throughout the day the money has come and now I'm going to back it to win. Missed the value but I think the horse will win well. The horse was consistent without winning but now it has the hang of it, I don't think a 3lbs rise will stop it. Strong win bet for me.

Massive plunge on Giuseppe Cassioli in 7.30 fundalk,, first run in Ireland,, aint seeing why he's into ~ 7/2 from ~ 8s,, reckon something else is quietly fancied,, looked at Acquiescent 13/2 ~ , Inflection Point ~ 8/1 , and Prisoner's Dilemma ~ 11/2 , and I reckons they all have better chances than the former British trained Giuseppe Cassioli, who's as big as 4s (PP, along with one or so more of the onlines) , and as short as 9/4 with a couple.. Even Moshammer ~ 11/1 can't be ruled out if you draw a line thru his latest run,, has a low draw in 3, so unlikely to be going wide today..!

Acquiescent would be my pick of the bunch here, with her low draw, and on the back of her lto C & D win,,

would have to be a 3-place & 4-place lay imo, Giuseppe Cassioli, if he's anywhere near 3/1 on t'show. also think JP Murtagh's No Nay Alexander is vulnerable at the 7f trip here.

Gl

nice win on Storm Asset Goat 😊

6 from 7 today - hard to better them numbers!

SonOfGoat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118733148#Comment_118733148

I actually had a small e.w on that Giuseppe cassioli earlier but it was a small bet so never posted. I think it'll go close. Seems to be a plunge horse that they never ran to true form. Seems to me the UK handicapper had them sussed. Won off 72 in 2020, upped 3lbs for that, after few bad runs ended up at 73,won at 7/1. Upped to 78 and even after bad runs never really budged. Off 77 here and horse is probably rated a lot higher in reality. Looking forward to the race. The horse will probably win easy or finish way down, fingers crossed its placed, for me anyway.

forgot to back Million Reasons in 7.15 (delayed),,, 9/4 very good price

Only fourth Million Reasons,, wouldn't write him off tho, he was on the 'wrong side' imo, and had to lump a massive weight here,,

next time out, and up in grade, he'd be a good bet over 6f at Newcastle I feel, or even 7furlongs at Wolves perhaps..

SonOfGoat

That Giuseppe out to 6's on the exchange and drifting but seems the money is already down. If the horse wins it'll be a proper laid out gamble. Will be an interesting race to watch.

don't have the station to watch 7.30, but gluck with him Goat

Giuseppe wins @ 13/2,, wasn't expecting that at all..

WD anyone who backed him - even those who took shorter odds would have been well rewarded with that sp.

another for Goat - 8 from 9 if calculations are right..

stellar picking today Goat!