Sunday 13th February 2022

For the 'non workshy' in our midst; will hope to find a winner to ease them 'Monday Morning blues' , and , for the rest of us what generally don't care what day it is; well, a winner is ALWAYS WELCOME (am sure there's a horsie by that name, but no, Always Welcome is not in reckoning as far as being a selection)

Will hope to find one at Exeter in Veterans' Handicap Chase...

4.30 Exeter SIR IVAN ~ 7/1 win

This fits the profile of one that that preeminent judge Fitzy would probably like... I can picture him saying: "Tell ya what, I reeaallly reeaallyyyy loyke this horse of Harry Froy - Sir Oyvinn ; he's just a verry consistent horse!"

It's that consistency that Mick alluded to above that makes me like him as well... The horse should at least stay the trip, and has been knocking on the door recently, with his last 6 form figures being 3-44313 .. not bad for a 12yr old, albeit 5 of those figures were from his 11yr old days,, still, he does look "more than a tiny bit likely" at the prices..

Pity we'll no here Mick's musings on this race, as he don't work for RacingTV...

A winner would be most welcome.. might try a cheeky one just going on horse name.. backing a horse whose name is liked by punter is neither the best nor the worst way of finding a winner imo... likely not a method favoured by purists,, anyroad, there's one going in Bumper at Punchestown..

4.40 Punchestown ANY ROAD ~ 16/1 ew

Might want further in time, but it's a wide open race with the majority of these having their first ever run.. Bellaney Lord ~ 3/1 looks best of those with form, and is worth a win bet at 5/2 or bigger.

GL

^^^^

Sir Ivan was 15/2, so was obliged to go ew on him in shop, even tho only 2 places on offer.. could mek a case for him being a ~ 5/1 shot in a race like tomorrow's..

Bellaney Lord I done win @ 11/4 - he should go close regardless of how good the newcomers are.. and in same 4.40 race, went e/w on Any Road @ 18s..

happy wit dem prices

1.50 Southwell

2 picks here and both are maidens, but 'cases can be made' 😁

MAYELF 7/2 PP/Boyle/Lads win

Not a very original pick, siding with a Serena Brotherton mount in an amateurs' race, but does have live claims on recent form. 11 runs without a win aint a helluva lot anyhow. On his third and fourth last runs Mayelf went very close over 6fs at Newcastle; and, in his last two races he was staying on at business end of 5f, at Southwell,,, a similar showing tomorrow might be good enough.. 7/2 is not a massive price, but is reasonable.. 11/4 or bigger would be okay imo on Mick Easterby's gelding, who also sports the 1st time cheekpieces, to offer us punters a lil more encouragement.

BIRDIE BOWERS 10/1 PP ew

Looks like the jockey could be a very close relative (likely his son) of the trainer here. Anyroad, horse and jockey hit the crossbar lto over 6f at Wolves. He was up with the pace when coming 2nd lto; which is a good change, as normally he's held up, or else he's slowly away. Jockey must have found the key to him, and the combo have a handy draw in box 2. Don't think he'll go off at anywhere near his current price,, just a guess though, and it is a very good price 😊 If Birdie does win; me and whoever's ('opefully it be Leonnarr, but we'll no mind so long as winners is found) at the course for SSR will be 'really pleased' for young Joshua Thompson getting his first ever winner 😆

Looked at the rest of the participants, and none of em made much interest for this Class 6 Amateur Jockeys' Handicap. I think Strike Me A Pose ~ 10/3 is drawn too wide in stall 9, which is more than enough reason to oppose Archie's 4yr old at prices. Capla Spirit ~ 11/2 is about the only other one of any real interest, and I couldn't completely rule him out - even being drawn widest of all in twelve.... 11 due to go to post, so he'll be eleven wide, which is enough to leave him off at prices..

Summit else may well win, and though I hope one or both me picks can go well; don't blame me if another donkey prevails 😂

j@utis

re 1:50 Southwell: did you see Voltaic winning yesterday in wolves? cantered in, I was expecting him to be a non-runner today here but he's still on the card and price has gone regardless sharp drop in trip, PP is paying 4 places but I think I'm gonna leave it.

j@utis

2:20 Southwell - not much to work on but what caught my attention is that a good few of them have met before. 4 of this bunch raced each other here last month Arkid finished 3rd, Good To Go 4th, Al Tilal 5th, Heers Harry 10th. There was about 4lb difference in weights back then, meanwhile today Al Tilal is carrying effectively 8lb less when less than 1 length behind the Arkid.

I don't guarantee my maths is correct and I think Arkid should be favorite in this race, current fav Another Bertie won here last time over 6f @80/1 but that race wasn't run to true form imho, I have a feeling it might been a fluke win and he won't be able to repeat it. Al Tilal finished behind Bertie that time when on equal terms, today she's 5lb better off. Arkid most likely to win but I'm after 10/1 shot Al Tilal and tried hard to make a case for her, hoping she won't be inconvenienced by a high draw and will cling on that lead for a bit longer today for e/w returns. I even looked at "betting w/o" market but that leaves only 7 runners and 2 places, so no benefit there.

j@utis

2:50 race is another quick fire hdc, I might have look at that, although it's class4 and they're all good horses. 3:20 race is over 1m6f nah, not many exciting things happen over such long distance; 3:50 is a seller, again no go, 4:20 is class 2, that even "worse" than class4, I'll leave that one alone; 4:50 race is class6 over a mile - that might be interesting but paddy isn't paying 4 places there, that's disappointing. I'll consult my notebook next and might come up with something more assuring than 10/1 shot based on pure speculation.

pottokblue

a little franco-irish CSM/Punchestown L15 on : Cieldeneige, Dublincalling, Bonheurbleu, Prettytiger

Bonne chance a tous!

j@utis

2:50 Night Narcissus 5/1 she's slightly down in class today and was also slightly inconvenienced lto, so might be closer to places today;

4:50 El Felicia 8/1 she was fancied last time and started as favorite when coming back after long-ish break, might have needed that run, has a good draw.

All e/w today. GL.

charlesanto

3:40 Mr Saxobeat

Maybe a little skinny now at 6's

jamieon

Mod Edit

Warning issued.

j@utis

Southwell isn't going to the plan today. Both races of interest produced winners from low draw side when statistics say draw bias is insignificant in sprints here. I have one more to go but she's drifting so not much hope, I suppose I just call it day.

j@utis

Don't gamble more than you can afford to lose, simple as that. We're only having some harmless fun here, there's no need to be nasty 🤣

jamieon

Mod Edit

Warning and Ban issued.