Saturday 12th February 2022

Hello peeps : )

Before it gets too late and/or I get 2 lazy, I have to start Sat'dee's thread.. 😊

Had a look and have a cupla tentative picks early doors..

12.50 Uttoxeter OPTICAL GIRL 100/1 gen ew , CALL BLUE 25s gen ew

Looks like Corey's Courage could be a penalty kick here, but 4/11 is just way too short of a price. Something has to is highly likely to come 2nd though, and there's also a future third placed finisher in this; all things being equal.. Wouldn't fancy Billams Legacy to win here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her out the places.. having her as 3/1 2nd fav is just making prices for everything else afaic... Briery Express is another one who's hard to fancy, even without the ~3 year layoff to overcome.. Call Blue looks value @ 25s to put in a decent showing here, on her 4th ever run, and second over hurdles, plus the jockey takes 10 pounds off,,, Optical Girl is more of a hopeful pick, having only her second ever run in NH sphere and first for her new trainer, Mrs Leech.. better trainer, 2nd run (under rules), and soft ground might see her get involved in tomorrow's opener,,, A good race in prospect I believe... a mouthwatering opportunity to mek some coin I fink, what with a poor enough looking second fav; and I can only hope one, at least, of my two, is good enough to fill one of places 1 , 2 and 3.

Am looking at Broomfield Burg ~ 4/1 and Jetoile ~ 11s in Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in 3.35.. might give it a better look later,. both of them look fairly priced, and will perhaps do one or both of them if I can't find owt else... Looked at Tritonic just now as well, and he's hard to overlook at 14s.. hmm.. decisions,,, 4 places prolly, so three picks ew no harm for big TV race.

GL all

A good days work.. 😁 Have picked out five (mentioned above) , who's chances range from very good to 'not without a chance' 😂

Have even went dahn to bookies for a cheeky flutta 😊 I went intee spoils and I were smiling like a halfwit at new bird what were in shoppe - that was the extent o' me 'cheekiness' tho,, it were right windy nd wet as me was walking home tho' , so that brung me down tee earth, so it did!

Can afford me a good lie in tomorrow, to recuperate from t'exertions... Put in a "good shift" today, macroscopically speaking :)

7/4 PP/Boyles is a favourable price for THIRD TIME LUCKI in 'Kingmaker' 2.05 Warwick..

This 4 runner Grade 2 Novices' Chase looks as though it's a match between Skelton's horse and Alan King's beast, the 10/11 jolly Edwardstone..

Last time they met Edwardstone won and finished 16lengths in front of the third placed finisher Third Time Lucki, which was at Sandown in December. Third Time Lucki's chances probably weren't helped that day by cutting out the running. The two outsiders here, Brave Seasca ~ 6/1 and For Pleasure ~ 33s, both like to lead, so it should help the cause of Third Time Lucki in this. It was softish ground that day at Sandown too, and declared going for Warwick tomorrow is good to soft.. The pick has won 3 out of 4 of his total chase starts, and the 7/4 about him looks a fair price. Any bigger and it would surely represent value... Likely (imo) that the two market leaders could both end up at ~ 11/8 each, with punters looking to back the Skelton horse at the friendlier odds..

If I've any joy in 12.50 I might reinvest some winnings on Third Time Lucki... 13/8 is as low as I'd be taking about him, and won't be looking to bet him at anything shorter..

Likely race will be on TTV, and no harm in watching it regardless of whether any investment is made.. it's always one o' them races what gets referenced when horses are tekkin part in future races... "Yeah, it were a right good run, and in a race run in a fast time - for t'conditions - when 'e won 'Kingmaker' back in February" ,,, that's the kind e shítetalk that can set a punter apart from his compatriots when discussing such things in the shops.. not a big fan of it meself tho' , but always handy to have that bs in yer 'back pocket' , as they say..

As a valued customer, I was allowed into the Credit Union early this morning.

All aboard Edwardstone |(14.05 Warwick) at evens.

j@utis

hey look, I've found one for SonOfGoat in lingers: 16:37 Notre Belle Bete 1/10, I'm not sure whether it's to back or to lay though 😊

j@utis

PP is paying 4 places in 2:20 Southwell, 11 runners race. I'm looking for a juicer price but can't find a real good one past the 3 at the top of the betting, and it's hard to choose from the top 3 too because there's something not right with all of them: Deputise has been knocking on the door the last 3 goes but he hasn't won since 2018, Pablo Del Pueblo has a very wide draw and might get stuck racing wide again and not get there at the end, Patsy Fagan is on the career high mark.

From the higher prices Come On Girl 12/1 loves it here, has won twice over CD and finished placed the other 4 CD occasions, that makes 6/6 good runs over CD but has wide draw and hasn't won class 5 race.

ETA: found one more top weight Swiss Pride 9/1 went on complete rampage over CD last year, now is on the same winning mark and drops down to class 5 after a string of efforts in class 4. I'm yet to decide to back one in this race or not.

j@utis

Not backing anything in that 2:20 lingers race after all. Lingfield card is very uninspiring today - small fields, small prices, higher class i.e. a lot with good chances, not my cuppa. But I'm still itching to have a bet, so had a nibble on one of the shorties in Wolves later - 7:15 Existent, won last time practically on the bridle, should have a good bit of improvement left in him, not looking at the others in that race or I'll succumb to paralysis by analysis again, as it happened in that 2:20 race.

Deputise is down in grade + wears blinkers... that were t'angle in 2.20 (late off) upcoming

j@utis

Good trainer/jockey stats too, but I was still left unconvinced..

33/1 shot.. no one alive could have found that one 😆

j@utis

yeah, at least once my gut feeling didn't let me down. I wouldn't have backed any of those finished in top 3.

4.37 Lingfield

365 are going a standout 2/13 on Notre Belle Bete here; offering a higher price than most of the other regular layers.. plenty going 1/10 or 1/12.. worth laying at 1/8 perhaps, in the hope the money comes... hard to know what wins, but the horse is on the back of a 100+ days layoff, and his sire Zoffany is 0 from 2 in the last 21 days at the course.. What might win? ... don't know, but the bottom one Reine Du Bal has to be of some interest stepping down in trip from her first run... 1/6 is the biggest I'd go, if I were on the machines, about the jolly here.. no obvious pace on here in this race either,,

votecounts

Does anyone know will bookies payout on risk and roll in the 1350 as third but was later disqualified, thinking first past the post.

don't know is my answer :(

Weepy

jonbon and constitution hill form in tatters after that

SonOfGoat

If I was betting today I'd take a chance on laying billaway in the 4.30 at naas. Very short around 4/11 aimed to win the race for the 3rd time. I definitely wouldn't be surprised if it gets beaten.

On a different note I think Ireland will beat France in t e rugby at Nice odds of roughly 7/4 but just going to watch it. Should be a half decent game.

Rubbish today 😓

j@utis

The day isn't over yet ;) I was hoping to back Wendell's Lad e/w in 6:15 Wolves but market has decided that C. Appleby's runner won't be suitable for this trip and everyone is lumping on Benedict and Wendell's Lad instead. Wendell's Lad finished his debut race very nicely indeed, Benedict Wildes outran his odds on his debut too, so appearantly it's between those two... No bet for me, I'll sit back and watch Deciduous to stuff them both.

I went for another shortie instead - Alrehb 7/4 in the next race, 6:45, forgot my reasoning behind it but it doesn't matter really.

^^^^

+1 from me on Kevin Foy's inmate 😊

One 4th place finish (in an ew 1/5 1-3 race) is the best I could muster from 5 picks : O

Too many horses with form on good ground (good to soft - good in places was going description) in that 3.35 Newbury ... Going on 2m form on good ground, I reckon I could have found that 20/1 winner; but, along with my 3 picks (no good) , I'd have probably picked another 2 or 3 if I decided to back that Glory And Fortune!

Might only have a bet in that Betfair Hurdle next year if there's plenty of soft in going description; or even heavy..

So far thread's only had an odds on winner, though it were recommended at evens.. Hello 2D just knew 😁 so well done him!

Will try to find a bigger priced winner.. Not a very original or unobvious pick, but will do me..

6.45 Wolves ALREHB 7/4 gen win

Is reasonably well positioned in box 4 in this 8 runner affair to chase the lead.. A few pacey ones here - not all of whom are favourably drawn - and, going on Alrehb's second placing at Newcastle over a mile 2 runs back, that's solid enough looking form in a race like this imo.. Only 4 runs, topweight in a handicap, and it's easy to draw a line through his Kempton run lto, where he went wide over the 1m trip there...

Price is v short tho.. was expecting he'd be about 3s until I looked at j@utis' post above, and was disappointed to see 7/4.. was gonna wait till after 'writeup' before I went onto oddschecker.. thinking I'd be seeing ~ 3s , and go: "that's a 'fair' price"

Can't say 7/4 is anywhere near a 'fair price' , and I won't be on him at those odds, but, even at his short price, he aint even favourite 😲 For some reason Eilean Dubh is 5/4.. too much to take on trust, given how he ran lto, and I reckons it's pure robbery offering 5/4 about Eilean Dubh.. If I was a layer I'd be laying him at 6/4 on principle. Think that's about his Betfair price currently.

I've had enough racing for one day..

GL all what's still persevering :)

Plasandrunt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118621225#Comment_118621225

I like To Move it finished 2nd and was just touched off. Jonbon destroyed him at Ascot

Tatters

Lord Riddiford goes well over C & D, but the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm for his chances in 7.15,, 9/1 still a very good price, and is perhaps worth a few pennies to win.. haven't looked at any of the other 6 contenders though,,

j@utis

Alrehb gets in, 11/8 fav, winner is a winner, I'm not complaining. And what did I say about Deciduous? yeah, romps in but you can't have them all, right. 7:15 race is the last of interest. Have a good evening lads, I opened a bottle of Prosecco to celebrate all the missed bets of today.

Gluck with your bottle a prosecco j@u !

There be other days... some days they're (dem winners) just hard 2 find 😊

SonOfGoat

I haven't bet since I had a heavy loser not too long ago. This is my first bet since then.

7.15 Wolverhampton, the fav I'm quite sure will lose here. Existent is below 5/4 and getting heavily backed by some but I'm convinced the horse will suffer on the surface here and won't win. Lay bet for me and hopefully recover some losses.

WD j@u! another convincing winner that Existent 😊

Unlucky Goat - thought the price was a bit skimpy myself, going on the 'transferable (or lack of) form' between Chelmsford and Wolves.