Tuesday 8th February 2022

Punter's Log: Been too long without a winner 😕

That was all me wrote.. won't be hanging my hat on finding one tomorrow neither, but these two will do for me, with 4 or 5 places likely available.

1.50 Taunton

KENDELU 15/2 Paddy/Boyle/Lads ew

Goes well at the course. Two wins from four trips there. Hard to leave out of calculations.

URABAMBA 20/1 Paddy/Boyle/Lads ew

A winner in Ireland. Fourth run, and first race in a lowly Class 5, since coming to England. Might go better down in grade...

Sidewaysinmilan ~11/2 could go well on only his second run in a handicap.. a bit short (even with 365's 15/2, imo) though for one who's not guaranteed to see the trip out.. Iberio 13/2 PP would need to improve his jumping.. Muy bien @ 4s could go well upped in trip, but may want softer (good to soft - good in places is current going description) anyhow.. is too short anyway... Karakoram 9/2 gen , a C & D winner from December, is another who can be overlooked at prices., and probably needs a bit of rain to come as well.

If it don't rain at course between now and tomorrow, I think it would scupper Karakoram's chances, and, if at 9/2 or shorter to win the race, Karakoram looks as though he'd be a solid place-lay proposition... If there's more soft in description than what is currently the state play, then I think his chances would improve somewhat. Anyhow, they (racecourses) don't be too quick to give a going change - bastids, so might be hard to tell what ground is like if today's description is the one used at the off..

Both the picks will do me, and they're at fairish prices..

Gluck ☺️

Southwell 6.30

Been wary of this course since surface change, as it's the newness of it all.. Plenty of solid (current) form on offer tomorrow though, with a few of these being C & D winners from their lto runs...

Have one right good pick, and a hopeful (might nab a place) one..

Love Your Work is one of those lto winners referenced, and, being drawn low in stall 3, is likely to try and make all again.. Love Your Work is currently trading at a best priced 11/8, and has to be considered a lay bet at that price or shorter imo... Was a five runner affair he won lto, and though he's showed massive improvement in his first two runs for his latest trainer; that was a veritable egg and spoon race what he won lto, and he didn't appear to have been properly tested at all.. won't have it as easy on the the morrow, that's for sho 😋

If Beccy's horse does lead, it should definitely suit:

CLIFFCAKE 10/3 gen and best priced 7/2 with 365. win Nap

Is drawn low in box no 2, and, though he physically has 8lbs more on his back than his recent win, I don't think his winning run has yet reached its end.. Clocked a very respectable time too, in that December race, and, even at 5/2 or so, I'd consider him value.. could go off shorter than 2s imo... Deserves Nap vote.. Was a Class 5 he won last time, and again a Class 5 he goes in tomorrow.. A big weight on his back wasn't enough to stop him from winning 2 runs back, in a Class 6 over 7furlongs at not so sunny (was wintertime, so only guessing about sunshine levels) Yarmouth, in October.. And, crucially, as Frederick might say, he's still a colt.. not much nothing not to like about the Bowring trained 4yr old...

KATHEEFA 18/1 PP, Boyles, Lads ew

Is a C & D winner off a higher mark on the 'old' course, as well as winning form on the Tapeta surface, from Wolves and Newcastle. Just the one win at north of 6fs in total though, which has to be a minor negative.. Hard to know how he's going to run, as can go from close to pace/mid-div/out the back. The big price swings it for me anyhoo, and the grey's worth a lil each way here afaic..

Am gonna make another tangential, and ancillary (because it speaks to predicting future - which punting is all about) prediction: The aforementioned Freddie (Tylicki) will be 'all over' LYW, despite the prohibitive odds - if he's in studio.. If Seb is there, I figure he'll side with me with Cliffcake 😁... e's a good judge is Seb... If neither of them chaps are there, then I dinna what their opinion/s will be..

GL all 😊

j@utis

5:00 Southwell, PP is paying 4 places in 11 runners race and not without a reason 🤣

Starting from the fav:

Jeans Maite 2/1 made all and won here by 3l last time but now is on the career high mark and slightly up in class;

Tell'em Nowt 4/1 has been in great form, won his last 3 races, carries penalty, but is tackling 5f first time, up in class too;

Maple Jack 4/1 is relatively unexposed and might have needed that run after a long break, possible to improve;

Scale Force 5/1 I presume based on his last run in Wolves, although didn't show anything in his latest starts over CD, but down in ratings, sooo???

Nubough 12/1 has pieces of form over 5f, won lto over 6f, raised 3lb for that, has gone close of current mark but that was 2 years ago

Red Walls 12/1 won over CD last time but now is looking for another career best, I like the price though.

I'm itching to have a bet in this one but nothing really pops out, any thoughts?

I think I'll wait for the football later.

Nothing today even worth a free bet.

thefallingman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599554#Comment_118599554

my luck is soooo bad at the moment i think i'll join you waiting for the footy

j@utis

5:30 Elhafei 2/1 won well last time and is still on lower mark on a/w comparing his turf rating. Soaring Star has been knocking on the doors lately but he doesn't seem to find that extra bit to win, I looked at his races replays and didn't like his attitude either plus he looks a bit awkward. The rest are either too old, out of form, or coming back from long lay off...

j@utis

6:30 Cliffcake for me too, I agree with you leff on the favorite's form not being the strongest. I can't find anything temping amongst the long shots in that race - their form is either at wrong distance, lower class, wrong track etc...

j@utis

Gone with Mapple Jack e/w in 5pm.

6.00 Southwell

Me and Seb like SIR MAXI 11/4

Soaring Star a late pick for Seb here 5.30 S

I don't know who backed that Mykonos St John, but it wasn't me; and likely it weren't his trainer Scott Dixon neither..

Hard!

Ruddy 'hard' to find that one,,

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118597573#Comment_118597573

CLIFFCAKE 10/3 gen and best priced 7/2 with 365. win Nap

BOOM!

A resounding success and Nap lands at a juicy 4/1 ! 😁

j@utis

Cliffcake does the business in 6:30 and saves the day. I choose not to get involved in the remaining three races 😅

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118601684#Comment_118601684

Hugh Taylor tipped that one on ATR. And Elhafei in the race before that. I backed the wrong one 🤣

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599577#Comment_118599577

How's the footy going? 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118601880#Comment_118601880

Hugh knows his onions 😄

Congrats all who backed Cliffcake... He were the 'obvious' 😂 one atc, prior to the race; going by form, draw, clock, and, crucially - price! 😊

j@utis

I quite like backing favorite in the races Hugh Taylor tips because market becomes skewed and favourite usually drifts. It happened today too in 5:30 where Soaring Star was original favourite, HT tipped Elhafei which was 2nd fav and later they flipped, race ended with Soaring Star winning as 11/4 shot. Today I thought Elhafei had a good chance based on his turf rating.

That sounds like a solid course of action there j@u ,, good as Hugh is; he picks more losers than winners, so he does, at a guess, imo..

Backing winners is far better than watching footy anyroad 😂 that should be the main 'take' from day's proceedings..

A bunch of millionaires bending t'knee.. 😴 Says it all about where we're at nowadays..

Weren't like that in mid/late nineties when Shaznay/Nicole/Natalie, and the tasty brunette (who's name escapes) knew where it were at , so to speak.. The future looks beak - we need (but don't deserve) a John Connor type character to reboot whole fqd up system, imho...

Strange times 😂

Melanie Blatt - that be her, whose name just come to me there, like a vision..

I like to think that all them singers from back in day, what had short lived careers (and good choons - that be paramount), are sitting at home in they mansions, with fat bank accounts, havin an odd punt, and, crucially, paying no nevermind to this wokerage crap, what every nowadays famous person has to be in compliance with..

And Marco Ghiani on telly again.. A right good apprentice(?) jockey he is, is the Italian non knee-bending sportsman!