Thursday 27th January 2022

7.00 Newcastle TANASOQ 7/1 gen win

Think Blazing Hot is the worthy fav here @ ~2/1 and will go close. Not sure about Porfin @ ~3/1 , who races at trips from between 5 and 7 furlongs, and will give him the swerve here.. Think Tathmeen wants further... Think Portelet Bay wants a bit further too... Snow Berry might be a decent longshot pick @ 14s with the very good 7lb claimer Freddie Larson on top.. Will side with Tanasoq however, who is a C & D winner, and wasn't disgraced in a slightly better race at the track and trip lto... does tend to find a bit of trouble, which is a worry, but is a good price..

Gluck all 😊

j@utis

I fancy Dubai Lady in 5:00 Newcastle but the price is gone.

garyc1987

Like Ex Patriot and Smoking Gun ew at double figure prices in the Thyestes

maximo31

Scarlet and Roses with young Shane Fitzgerald jocked up has caught my eye. 14-1 EW for me.......

Dr. Bre

Fiver free bet on the thyestes from bet365

pottokblue

I'm on onthetheropes and expatriot e/w 5places Thyestes

VelaSupernova

I'm gone to the elbows in Klassical Dream

SonOfGoat

Few nice bets lined up.

1.55 Southwell, nickleby, around 5/2 on the exchange. I've backed this to win and my best of the day. The horse is better than the form on paper. It really should win well.

Dr. Bre

Klassical well beaten

i'm a lucky boy.

Very nearly horsed into Klassical Dream.

SonOfGoat

2.45 Wetherby, risk dargent, around 7/4 and getting backed, but I can't see this horse winning here. Horse is not a great jumper and ran with a penalty lto and seemed too much. Confident lay bet.

Toy Estees Gowran 3.05

Give it the cursory '2 minute per mule in a big race look' in an attempt to pick 2 for €5 ew..

I failed miserably, and come up with 6 - mebbe €1 or €2 ew apiece on them..

FRANCO DE PORT , ESCARIA TEN , ONTHEROPES , AGUSTA GOLD , EX PATRIOT , SMOKING GUN

6 picks!!!!... FARK THE NAYSAERS! i like punting 😁

SonOfGoat

Last bet of the day for me.

3.15 Wetherby, sholokjack, around 5/4. Can't see it winning here. Race is a different kettle of fish to the last one it won. Quietly confident this won't win. I'm out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118540933#Comment_118540933

No joy there.. 2 placers, so just over half me money back... That's a result in itself! 😋

j@utis

PP is paying 4 places in 6:30 Newcastle, my favorite messy affairs. I think Oriental Lilly has a good chance if she's in the same mood when she won here last time, she's of the same mark and even has the same draw. But I'm after the long shot, and I'll be siding with Clear Angel 10/1 he only ran once in handicap so far and was fancied at that run, today's extra furlong might help. GL.

SonOfGoat

In the 5.0 at Newcastle, I had dubai lady down as a potential bet this morning but I was 50/50. With the money coming for it now I've decided to back it to win. Horse won 1m at Newcastle first time out. Then, at Kempton seems the money was down again but the jockey shepherd got caught napping and one came over the top. That was over 7f and I thought that was too short anyway. Back over 1m at Newcastle and muscutt in the saddle and money down, looks good to me. Hopefully will get the job done.

Best of luck with Dubai Lady in the 5o'c Goat... Sometimes ya just have to go with your gut, and not care about price contraction, or value.. There's a reason these horses are gambled on - someone expects! 😊

Looks like Oriental Lilly is itching to get her nose in front... well drawn in 11 - a box she won from over her latest, and most recent overall, C & D victory... price bit short now though... Not so enamoured with the favourite Beryl The Peril, or the 3rd/joint 2nd fav Tell'em Nowt.. Think these two act better over further..

Clear Angel definitely looks value at 10 or 11 to one, with some decent C & D form from his first two runs..

Me, in that 6.30, if I was havin a punt, I'd go for an outsider here in the shape of SHARRABANG @ ~ 18/1 4 places a fifth.. Not the most consistent, and in a poor run of form lately; but I think his last two runs, which were over C & D, can be ignored, being as he were drawn low in stall 1 on both occasions.. I think there's a decided bias against those racing on the far side here at Newcastle.. Today, he's drawn 9 of 12, and, if 18s are available, if I venture to shop, I'd be obliged to have a couple of € ew on Mrs Barclay's charge.....

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537539#Comment_118537539

Shocking run by Dubai Lady, she finished last. She was backed to even money, pulled liked crazy for first 4f and then faded instead of picking up.

munster87

I'll chance Clear Angel ew in the 18:30. Missed the break lto over shorter, but ran on well enough under no pressure in the final furlong. Think back up to 6f will go close.

Sharrabang rubbish 😓 ... good run from Clear Angel coming a very good staying on second, with the rest pretty much nowhere..

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542049#Comment_118542049

Yeah, a small return but no main bounty, Rule 4 too. I'm onto the next, I'm kinda sceptical about favorite's chances in the last, he hasn't won over 5f since 2020, jockey is claiming 7lb but will that be enough? Blazing Hot is my pick, he seems to be on the roll, and won in good fashion last time here.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542087#Comment_118542087

Yep, I think Tathmeen is too short for a 5f race, which probably aint too suitable of a trip.. Am on Tanasoq, and am hopeful, but not very confident, at a decent enough 7/1..

Really hope Snow Berry doesn't make the frame.. looked at 7lb claimer Freddie Larson's mounts for today when I glanced at card yesterday, and thought about doing something ew, like a patent or summit.. He's definitely good value for his 7lbs, and in his first two (out of 3 counting the 7.00) rides this eve, he's had two 3rd place placers - at 5/1 and 11/1 - and it would be a cruel blow pour moi if he were to come 1st or 2nd here. Forgot all about Freddie today ☹️ first run after ~ 100 days absence, and has drifted, so will be willing Snow Berry not to figure here today 😃

5/2 looks a very good price on Blazing Hot here.....

WD anyone on Blazing Hot! 😊 Wins cosy at a fairly generous price,,, jockey had to pull the head off Tanasoq, so that scuppered whatever chance he had,,

And Tathmeen no good... think a few of us called that - feels like a winner... almost 😁

j@utis

Nice to end the day on the high note and +2pt up. I'm still trying to get over that shocking run by Dubai Lady though 🤣

munster87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542049#Comment_118542049

Clear Angel broke last again, did well to get so close to the winner. Could be a win soon

Looks a surefire winner in the making alright, that Clear Angel.... Reckon I'd be setting my sights low for him as far as his price goes, for when he races next.. Won't be seeing any 10 or 11 or even 8 to 1 about him, for a couple of runs at least 😄

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542293#Comment_118542293

I agree with that. He's not going into my notebook on that basis too...

pity that.. ya find one lurking in the middle to bottom of betting, and a slight bit of bad luck costs ya the win 😪 no point trying to recoup it off him next time... If I was setting my sights on backing him next time, I'd be thinking 13/8ish, and, if he goes in a similar race over C & D, then I'd be tempted.. Maybe even at Wolves also he'd fare well.. Wouldn't be taking a short price if he heads somewheres like Lingers or Kempton tho....

munster87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542293#Comment_118542293

Out tomorrow night 19:00 Newcastle leffesem. Currently a shade under 2/1 fave. I've had a nibble.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118608238#Comment_118608238

Top price 6/4 now.. Best of luck with him munster !