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Are Starlink and SpaceX doomed ?

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  • 17-01-2022 6:59pm
    #1
    SlowBlowin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭


    I followed the early Starlink launches, and watched them go overhead (I am in the Kerry dark sky area). At this point I was very much an Elon "fanboy", and I was hoping to adopt Starlink at my remote location. 

    Following the UK governments bail out of the OneWeb project I started looking at the maths, why would the UK government invest so much in OneWeb when Starlink was already up ? The more I looked into it, the more the maths of Starlink did not make sense, and I see no future for it in its intended market/price and wonder why Elon is putting SpaceX in such a risky position.

    So what's going on with Starlink ? Its referred to as a "cash cow", paying for future mars exploration in the near future, but it seems just the opposite. I am sure that at some point it could be made to be cost effective (with working laser links, cheap terminals, and a flight proven star ship), but how much debt would have been built up by then, who would ever invest in its future ?

    Sticking to the known tech I used the following numbers and put my own estimates on the rest:

    Sat cost = $350K

    Launch cost per sat = £250K

    Sat life span = 5 years

    Max simultaneous users per sat = 2000

    Unknown costs:

    Ground station costs ?

    Sat admin cost ?

    Customer admin cost ?

    Terminals sold at a loss ?

    Unknown:

    Over subscription ratio ?

    Current stats:

    1900 satellites launched

    Current number of subscribers= 140K (Jan 2022)

    Date of first launch May 2019

    Service cost $99 per month + $500 setup (sold at 50% loss for v1)

    Replacement of constellation 1 ?

    Can you make a good business with these numbers, and the current pricing structure. Something that will be generating cash in a year or two ?

    When throwing numbers into a calculator remember that large parts of the world will have very few users (Russia, China, India etc). While over more viable markets satellites will be limited by simultaneous connections and ground station availability. The customer density on the ground means over cities you don't have enough satellites, and over the rest of the ground you have too many. 

    You can see current satellite and ground station coverage here:

    https://satellitemap.space/

    It helps you visualise the issues. I would argue that factoring in the "density" issue, makes the whole concept financially unviable (close to current subscription rates).

    Can anyone with better knowledge of satellite constellations (or finance) than me make this into the "cash cow" its being referred to, or even make it an attractive investment opportunity while carrying over the debt ?

    If not what's going on, why was this constellation built in the first place, why risk a hugely successful launch company, why is investment money still flowing in to other internet satellite operators ? 



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