Friday 14th January 2022

1.00 Huntingdon

15 runners declared for this, so unlikely many b & m books won't be going 4 places here (albeit the usual 1/5 the odds, but still, it's the optics of it; and 4 places always looks better than 3, if picking a few each way 😄)

About half the field can be given a chance in this, by my calculations.. Karakoram won lto over similar conditions, but there wasn't a lot of distance between the 1st, 2nd, and third in that race. Prior to that run he'd mainly been running over shorter in his recent runs, and didn't do much at this sort of trip when tried at it around this time last year. He's gone up a bit in weights for his recent win, and I thought he'd be closer to 5/1. Plenty of 9/1 on offer, and some 10s also, and looks value if ya fancy him. Not for me today though, and will reluctantly draw a line through him, based on the thinking that he'll not back up his last run, plus the weight hike, and not being overly enamoured with the form of his most recent win.

Ace time @ 10/3 gen has to prove to me he'll stay this trip, and at a best priced 4/1, he looks a bit short anyhow.

Alberic @ 11/4 has gone close a few times recently since he's been moved too Hobbs' yard. 2 seconds, a third, and a fourth from five runs can see him possibly involved here, but makes zero appeal at the prices. A good 2nd lto, when going close and finishing well clear of the third. Is only 5 and going the right way, and he deserves to be at or close to top of betting, but another one I can't be having..

Fergal O'Brien's Smoking Pigeon @ 15/2 is having his first run in a handicap, and sports the first time tonguestrap. Also has had 1st time wind surgery. The three runs of his that I can see (on form figures it looks as if he's had more runs) saw him run three times in hurdles over good/goodish ground, where he tried to make all, but ended finishing well down the places. Not one to go mad from a lay point of view, as he's now trying softer going, and, because he's got a rating, different tactics may be involved, and he may possibly be seen to better effect. Still, I just can't be having him, and a watching brief is all I can advise.

Onto the picks:

ENLIGHTEN 9/1 PP, Boyles, Lads ew.. Came 2nd lto over the (almost) same trip as today, and was staying on over shorter 2 runs back on soft ground. Seems to give a more consistent account nowadays too, and 9/1 (10s available) gen looks a fair price...

METHAG 12/1 PP, Boyles, Lads ew.. Is down in grade and dropping down the handicap. She's also a course winner. Mostly she tries to lead or chase the pace. If not, then she is occasionally held up. Looks versatile and 12/1 a fair price.

ADHERENCE 30/1 PP ew.... First run for a new trainer. Has won before after an absence. Has been dropping steadily in the weights, and drops markedly in a trip from recent runs to a more suitable 2 1/2m imo.. Available to back at 33s, and a general 28/1 shot, Adherence is another fairly priced one. All these picks I would consider fair prices, with none looking either poor or exceptional value..

BEGIN THE LUCK 18/1 PP ew... Have a feeling this one could be potentially a light under a bushel job.. Can't ignore this 6yr old at the prices. He has seen massive support in many of his recent outings (winning two of them back to back last year at Southwell over 2m). Has never won on soft or over this far, but some of his runs over 2m (including one at the course) have seen him staying on over 2m on soft ground, and, if gets this 2 1/2m trip, I don't want to leave him unbacked,,

Too many picks to go mad here, and a few other horses that look likely, means only small ew stakes here. Will do em for €2.50 ew apiece if the prices quoted are available come shop opening time..

Gluck 😊

1.20 Sedgefield LOSTNFOUND 11/1 PP , Boyles , Lads.. Win

A course winner over further. Top jock Brian Hughes takes the ride for the first time. Son Of The Somme @ ~ 11/4 has question marks based on the ground (soft)... Rubytwo @ 15/2 gen may well go close without winning, and perhaps merits a 3 place bet at shorter odds. Hidden Commander @ 3/1 is one who seems to be a strange price here. I don't know why he's so short. He's yet to do anything of note under rules, having being campaigned at trips of between 2 and 2 1/2miles. Was staying on over shorter lto over 2m at Ayr on better ground, but I don't see why he's so short on the back of that outing, as it's a lot further trip and softer ground he tackles today. Has 3 place lay written all over him. Cailin Dearg @ 5/2 gen has won her last two over C & D. Hard to look past her on form, and it's only perhaps the weight hike that can be viewed as any kind of a negative...

The selection is a best priced 14/1 with 365, but is not the most consistent, so @ 11/1 gen, Lostnfound is probably only worth a win only bet here. If she drifts and/or the favourite shortens, maybe a 'win without the favourite' bet could be in order as well...

1.50 Sedgefield ANNIE'S PRAYER 7/2 PP , Lads , Boyles. win

Only 4 runs in total under rules. Came 4th lto over a shorter trip on better ground. Was going well at Bangor on soft 2 runs back, and was a bit unlucky coming 2nd, having made a few mistakes. Has potential and worth a win bet at 11/4 or bigger. Step up in trip a minor negative, but does look unexposed here..

j@utis

Two shorties for me today:

1:40 Lingfield Nuble is bidding for hattrick, I'm counting in jockey's claim to offset the rise in weights;

3:10 Lingfield Buraback has won quite easily over CD here last time, hoping he's able to repeat that today.

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473923#Comment_118473923

First and last, lol. Burabak didn't respond well to the first time headgear, didn't settle at all and ran off the course on the final bend, stays in the notebook regardless.