Saturday 8th Jan 2022

3.50 Wincanton

A couple of picks in this. The soft ground is enough to put me off one of top two in betting, Lilith 11/4, and the other market leader, Storm Force Ben 3/1, doesn't appear to have strong claims at prices. He may go close, but isn't jumping off the page.

HEAVEY 13/2 gen ew

This 8yr old is one of the more experienced of the bunch. Has yet to get his head in front over the bigger obstacles, and it looks as if his turn isn't far away. Appeals at the prices, and is fairly priced for place part, and looks maybe a point or two above what he might be, from a win only point of view,

BARBARIAN 66/1 PP ew

Worth a punt on his chasing debut. Soft ground should be fine. The trip and the obstacles an obvious unknown. Breeding suggest that these should be okay for this 6yr old. Has never won and has gone off at massive prices on 5 of his six starts under rules. Was well backed on his first ever outing, which was a bumper, so presumably he has ability, and maybe chasing is his game. Looks as though any further precipitation wouldn't hinder his chances neither. A speculative one nonetheless, but worth a hopeful € or two e/way,,

☺️ Gluck

1.03 Cork ADAMANTLY CHOSEN Lay, best price 1/4 with books & 4/11 on exchanges..

2 good runs, with 1 win in a bumper, and a second on his hurdling debut. Those were on better ground than the stated soft going he'll face later today. Trained by Willie Mullins and owned by JP a syndicate with similar colours as McManus 😃; but, regardless of his connections, his price looks ludicrous. If he's anywhere close to that price later, then @ 4/6 or shorter, he has to be a lay bet, on general principle.. There's 20+ more horses in the race, and I reckon at least one beats him..

The one who I think it might be is...

BARRANCO 15/2 PP ew

Definitely looks a fair price. He's a bumper winner on good ground, and unraced over hurdles. By Shirocco, it looks as though 2m on soft should be right up his street, whereas the jolly may need more of a trip and/or soft ground,..

2.13 Cork SWELLTIME 11/1 gen ew

An open race this. Only one horse appeals in this at the prices, or otherwise, as having a chance here. The 6yr old Swelltime is having his first run for new connections. Previously with Joseph Murphy, where the selection ran on the flat and over hurdles, with a single win in each of those codes. Hasn't raced since October, which saw him finish down the field in a 1m 6f flat handicap at Navan, and previous to that he's had four other flat runs, since last he was sent jumping.

That latest hurdles' outing was in May of last year, and if it weren't for that run, I wouldn't be considering him at all. That was at Killarney over 2m 1f on yielding to soft, where he finished a 13L 4th, but he also ran a similar race over a similar trip at Ballinrobe the month before that, so it does look as though a ~2 1/2m trip on soft will see him to good effect, and he did gave the appearance of staying on in both them races. So, overall form not great, and those races were over a shorter distance than today's race, but they were ran in fastish times, and he makes a modicum of appeal on that basis, as he may be able to stay the extra distance today. Angle here is he's possibly unexposed under today's conditions, and he's at his lowest hurdles' mark since he's received a rating. A reasonable price, albeit not massive value, so a small each way bet the way to go here imo..

`1.30 Wincanton

give NOBLE SAVAGE a squeak here @ 10s

Had a nice bet on Adrimel in the 13.58 but he's a NR :'(

3.00 Sandown PRIME VENTURE 20/1 PP ew

Think this 11yr old has a squeak in this Veterans' Handicap Chase. Looks about a 12/1 shot, and it's a hard race to solve, so I can give him a chance here. Has only had the one chase win, and he's also dropping down weights on account of a few average runs lately. He is normally held up, but is not lumping a big weight, and on this heavy (or close to it) going, he may elect to chase the pace. A near the front throughout position might see a reversal of fortunes.

Don't really have much of an opinion on anything else in this, and I'd like to oppose Aso (4/1 2nd fav) for a place, as he's never won over this far, but he's mainly ran in better races than this, and could go close. Almost getting to a backable price, but 4s a bit short, although he's probably the classiest horse in this. Can't rule him out at all though. Not so sure about the 10/3 fav, the 13yr old Final Nudge, who's a recent recruit to Fergal O'Brien's. A nice win lto on his third start for Fergal, but that was on better ground. Has won on heavy before, but does look a bit short.

SonOfGoat

2.55 Lingfield, Aguaplano, around 5/4. I've backed this to win and my best of the day. Excellent 3rd lto and by far the best form in the race. Seemed to run green when held up in n 3rd ans weakened. I hope they take the lead and kick on, but regardless, the horse will be better for that run. Very confident win bet.

Brian Hughes is getting some abuse on Twitter.

He was on the favourite in the 14.30 at Newcastle, gave Sean Quinlan a 20 length lead and left it too late to go chasing after it. Winner was fading coming down the straight but was under no pressure to pick up and ended up winning by about a half dozen lengths.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439194#Comment_118439194

BOOOOMMMM!!!!!

pottokblue

Ta Leffe apart from PRIMEVENTURE, I had a small e/w bet on all your other Satyrday( except agaplano nobet) pickes and Heavey is winner allright for you, me and QDOS racing!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439564#Comment_118439564

All good so Pottokblue 😊

pottokblue

leffe winners/losers its all good with me and the ggs but a wee winner makes it even gooder!!😉

Too true Potto.. It's the hope and the buzz too! not too much hope though - can be a dangerous thing 😂

SonOfGoat

2 bets going.

6.15 Kempton, aljaryaal. Horse is around even money. Not liking the horse in this particular race. I think the horse wants further than the 1m4f. Lay bet

SonOfGoat

6.45 Kempton, edraak, around 5/4 - 6/4. Again a lay bet here, can't see it winning. I think it'll find 1 or 2 too good here.