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January 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-12-2021 9:02pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Hope you are all enjoying the nice summer weather :) ... here we go with the 14th annual weather forecast contest (that I have been aware of, maybe they had them before 2009). I did a comprehensive roundup of all regular entrants' history in these contests over the years and published that at the end of either 2019 or 2020, will have to go back in and take a look for it, then maybe update that material in the December thread after the scoring is done.

    So just for the benefit of anyone new to the contests and thinking of joining in, this is the month to make that move, as the annual contest runs from this contest to Dec 2022. We do have seasonal portions too. These are the five basic forecasts that are required, with a bonus question each month that depends on whatever seems to be of interest ...

    1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX and

    3. MIN (each from the roughly 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

    4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

    5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

    6. BONUS ... As you may know, I report on how the month is shaping up each week, so for the fourth week of Jan 2022 (22nd to 28th), what will I report for the IMT for that week? (not the running monthly average but the specific average IMT for those seven days). The normal will be set from the data report but it would probably be around 5.0 as that is just about the coldest portion of the long-term temperature trend. You're predicting the actual average, not the difference from 5.0. Weekly averages can often vary by two or three times the usual range of monthly variations.

    Here are my predictions for the month and those of Normal ...

    M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 102 _ 115 __ 3.9

    NormaL ____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 5.0

    Late penalties for the 2022 contests will follow previous template, one point deduction for each four hours elapsed from the deadline which will remain 0300h of the 1st of each month. When we reach 1500h 2nd, and the deduction level is then nine points, it increases to one point every hour.

    Good luck and happy new year to all.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,729 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 135 _ 97 __ 4.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 996 ✭✭✭ esposito


    esposito ____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -2.2 _ 140 _ 85 __ 4.3

    Post edited by esposito on


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,292 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ____________ 6.3 _ 15.7 _ -2.3 _ 156 _ 82 __ 4.9



  • Registered Users Posts: 320 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.9 ___ 14.5 ___ -4.9 ___ 112 ___ 94 ___ 6.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_______ 6.0 _ 14.3 _ -2.9 _ 108 _ 87 __ 4.9



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,606 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.1 _ 110 _ 115 __ 4.8

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____________ 6.3 _ 15.6 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 85 __ 6.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3_______ 5.9 _ 14.6 _ -4.8 _ 120_ 90 __ 5.6

    Happy New year... 😃



  • Registered Users Posts: 807 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___5.9___14.4__-4.6___160___77___5.9



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,323 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ________ 5.4 _ 14.6 _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 095 __ 5.1



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac____________ 5.7 _ 14.5 _ -4.7 _ 103 _ 95 __ 4.7



  • Registered Users Posts: 355 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ________ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -8.5 _ 100 _ 119 __ 4.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,763 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop___5.6_14.9_ -3.9_140_95_4.2

    Happy New Year everyone!



  • Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____________ 5.9 _ 14.2 _ -4.4 _ 131 _ 98 __ 5.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 362 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____6.1____14.2____-6.2____90____90____4.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭ bazlers


    Bazler_____5.8___13.7___-8.2___96___110___4.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,779 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa_______ 5.9 _ 15.0 _ -4.6 _ 122 _ 86 __ 5.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ________ 4.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.9 _ 110 _ 98 __ 4.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,412 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____________ 5.4 _ 14.0_ -6.5 _ 140 _ 120 __ 4.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610______5.0_14.1_-6.2_123_109_4.4



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_______ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ -5 _ 120_ 100 __ 5.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno ____________ 3.9 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 115 _ 95 __ 2.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 463 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 __ 5.0

    Knew I forgot to do something Yesterday.

    Sorry I am Late.

    Happy New Year Everybody.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for January 2022

    with your current score for MAX as an added bonus _ some of us can still use a milder day in the future. It did not appear that any late forecasts gained any particular advantage so I won't impose a secondary late penalty. Any further late forecasts will be capped at 15 points if they use the 15.0, or any value 14.5 to 15.0, if you go higher and nothing higher happens, same cap. If it happens, you're okay with the new value and full points. A new lower value 14.5 to 15.0 will score your forecast from that value as your score would then be higher than 15.

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX_score_MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Bonus (4th week IMT)

    Gonzo ______________6.3 _ 15.7 (13) _ -2.3 _ 156 _ 082 ___ 4.9

    Artane2002 _________ 6.3 _ 15.6 (14) _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 6.6

    MrSkinner __________ 6.1 _ 14.2 (12) _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5

    200motels __________ 6.0 _ 14.3 (13) _ -2.9 _ 108 _ 087 ___ 4.9

    dacogawa ___________5.9 _ 15.0 (20) _ -4.6 _ 122 _ 086 ___ 5.1

    sunflower3 __________5.9 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 5.6

    Kindred Spirit ________5.9 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.9 _ 112 _ 094 ___ 6.2

    Mr stonewall _________5.9 _ 14.4 (14) _ -4.6 _ 160 _ 077 ___ 5.9

    Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.2 (12) _ -4.4 _ 131 _ 098 ___ 5.8

    esposito ____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 (17) _ -2.2 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 4.3

    Pauldry ___ (-1) ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 5.8

    Bazlers _____________5.8 _ 13.7 (07) _ -8.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.0


    ___ Con Sensus ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 111 _ 095 ___ 4.8


    john mac____________5.7 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.7 _ 103 _ 095 ___ 4.7

    Appledrop ___________5.6 _ 14.9 (19) _ -3.9 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 4.2

    M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 (18) _ -7.5 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 3.9

    Dasa29 _____________5.5 _ 14.0 (10) _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 5.0

    DOCARCH ___________5.4 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 5.1

    Bsal _______________ 5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -4.0 _ 135 _ 097 ___ 4.8

    Jpmarn _____________5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -6.5 _ 140 _ 120 ___ 4.5

    sryanbruen _________ 5.3 _ 15.8 (12) _ -6.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 4.8

    ___ NormaL _________5.1 _ 14.5 (15) _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 5.0

    waterways __________5.0 _ 14.9 (19) _ -8.5 _ 100 _ 119 ___ 4.5

    adam240610 ________5.0 _ 14.1 (11) _ -6.2 _ 123 _ 109 ___ 4.4

    Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 14.3 (13) _ -6.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 4.3

    Danno ____ (-3) _____3.9 _ 14.1 (11) _ -8.7 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 2.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two days the IMT is 10.1 C.

    LOL



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,763 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Sure thats nearly summer average for Ireland😉

    All change tonight, temperatures have plummeted looks like sleet/bit of snow on the way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,412 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Min is -3.5°C recorded at Moorepark on the 5th.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,763 ✭✭✭ appledrop




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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 5.6 which is 0.3 above normal.

    MAX 15.0 and MIN -3.6

    PRC 100% of normal

    SUN 148.5% of normal (891/600)



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