January 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Hope you are all enjoying the nice summer weather :) ... here we go with the 14th annual weather forecast contest (that I have been aware of, maybe they had them before 2009). I did a comprehensive roundup of all regular entrants' history in these contests over the years and published that at the end of either 2019 or 2020, will have to go back in and take a look for it, then maybe update that material in the December thread after the scoring is done.

So just for the benefit of anyone new to the contests and thinking of joining in, this is the month to make that move, as the annual contest runs from this contest to Dec 2022. We do have seasonal portions too. These are the five basic forecasts that are required, with a bonus question each month that depends on whatever seems to be of interest ...

1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX and

3. MIN (each from the roughly 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. BONUS ... As you may know, I report on how the month is shaping up each week, so for the fourth week of Jan 2022 (22nd to 28th), what will I report for the IMT for that week? (not the running monthly average but the specific average IMT for those seven days). The normal will be set from the data report but it would probably be around 5.0 as that is just about the coldest portion of the long-term temperature trend. You're predicting the actual average, not the difference from 5.0. Weekly averages can often vary by two or three times the usual range of monthly variations.

Here are my predictions for the month and those of Normal ...

M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 102 _ 115 __ 3.9

NormaL ____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 5.0

Late penalties for the 2022 contests will follow previous template, one point deduction for each four hours elapsed from the deadline which will remain 0300h of the 1st of each month. When we reach 1500h 2nd, and the deduction level is then nine points, it increases to one point every hour.

Good luck and happy new year to all.

Bsal

Bsal ____________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 135 _ 97 __ 4.8

esposito

esposito ____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -2.2 _ 140 _ 85 __ 4.3

Gonzo

Gonzo ____________ 6.3 _ 15.7 _ -2.3 _ 156 _ 82 __ 4.9

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.9 ___ 14.5 ___ -4.9 ___ 112 ___ 94 ___ 6.2

200motels

200motels_______ 6.0 _ 14.3 _ -2.9 _ 108 _ 87 __ 4.9

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -6.1 _ 110 _ 115 __ 4.8

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____________ 6.3 _ 15.6 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 85 __ 6.6

sunflower3

sunflower3_______ 5.9 _ 14.6 _ -4.8 _ 120_ 90 __ 5.6

Happy New year... 😃

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___5.9___14.4__-4.6___160___77___5.9

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 5.4 _ 14.6 _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 095 __ 5.1

John mac

john mac____________ 5.7 _ 14.5 _ -4.7 _ 103 _ 95 __ 4.7

waterways

waterways ________ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -8.5 _ 100 _ 119 __ 4.5

appledrop

Appledrop___5.6_14.9_ -3.9_140_95_4.2

Happy New Year everyone!

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____________ 5.9 _ 14.2 _ -4.4 _ 131 _ 98 __ 5.8

mrskinner

Skinner____6.1____14.2____-6.2____90____90____4.5

bazlers

Bazler_____5.8___13.7___-8.2___96___110___4.0

dacogawa

Dacogawa_______ 5.9 _ 15.0 _ -4.6 _ 122 _ 86 __ 5.1

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 4.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.9 _ 110 _ 98 __ 4.3

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________ 5.4 _ 14.0_ -6.5 _ 140 _ 120 __ 4.5

adam240610

adam240610______5.0_14.1_-6.2_123_109_4.4

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ -5 _ 120_ 100 __ 5.8

Danno

Danno ____________ 3.9 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 115 _ 95 __ 2.1

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 __ 5.0

Knew I forgot to do something Yesterday.

Sorry I am Late.

Happy New Year Everybody.

DOCARCH

Phoenix Park max of 15.0c yesterday.

Most people busted Day 1! 😀

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for January 2022

with your current score for MAX as an added bonus _ some of us can still use a milder day in the future. It did not appear that any late forecasts gained any particular advantage so I won't impose a secondary late penalty. Any further late forecasts will be capped at 15 points if they use the 15.0, or any value 14.5 to 15.0, if you go higher and nothing higher happens, same cap. If it happens, you're okay with the new value and full points. A new lower value 14.5 to 15.0 will score your forecast from that value as your score would then be higher than 15.

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX_score_MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Bonus (4th week IMT)

Gonzo ______________6.3 _ 15.7 (13) _ -2.3 _ 156 _ 082 ___ 4.9

Artane2002 _________ 6.3 _ 15.6 (14) _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 6.6

MrSkinner __________ 6.1 _ 14.2 (12) _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5

200motels __________ 6.0 _ 14.3 (13) _ -2.9 _ 108 _ 087 ___ 4.9

dacogawa ___________5.9 _ 15.0 (20) _ -4.6 _ 122 _ 086 ___ 5.1

sunflower3 __________5.9 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 5.6

Kindred Spirit ________5.9 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.9 _ 112 _ 094 ___ 6.2

Mr stonewall _________5.9 _ 14.4 (14) _ -4.6 _ 160 _ 077 ___ 5.9

Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.2 (12) _ -4.4 _ 131 _ 098 ___ 5.8

esposito ____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 (17) _ -2.2 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 4.3

Pauldry ___ (-1) ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 5.8

Bazlers _____________5.8 _ 13.7 (07) _ -8.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.0

___ Con Sensus ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 111 _ 095 ___ 4.8

john mac____________5.7 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.7 _ 103 _ 095 ___ 4.7

Appledrop ___________5.6 _ 14.9 (19) _ -3.9 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 4.2

M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 (18) _ -7.5 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 3.9

Dasa29 _____________5.5 _ 14.0 (10) _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 5.0

DOCARCH ___________5.4 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 5.1

Bsal _______________ 5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -4.0 _ 135 _ 097 ___ 4.8

Jpmarn _____________5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -6.5 _ 140 _ 120 ___ 4.5

sryanbruen _________ 5.3 _ 15.8 (12) _ -6.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 4.8

___ NormaL _________5.1 _ 14.5 (15) _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 5.0

waterways __________5.0 _ 14.9 (19) _ -8.5 _ 100 _ 119 ___ 4.5

adam240610 ________5.0 _ 14.1 (11) _ -6.2 _ 123 _ 109 ___ 4.4

Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 14.3 (13) _ -6.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 4.3

Danno ____ (-3) _____3.9 _ 14.1 (11) _ -8.7 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 2.1

M.T. Cranium

After two days the IMT is 10.1 C.

LOL

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409972#Comment_118409972

Sure thats nearly summer average for Ireland😉

All change tonight, temperatures have plummeted looks like sleet/bit of snow on the way.

Jpmarn

Min is -3.5°C recorded at Moorepark on the 5th.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118425329#Comment_118425329

Looks like it's-3.6 at Moore Park.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 5.6 which is 0.3 above normal.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -3.6

PRC 100% of normal

SUN 148.5% of normal (891/600)

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now 5.7 C with the second week average 5.8 which is 0.6 above normal.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -3.6

PRC 74% of normal with the second week average only 48% of normal.

SUN at 139.3% of normal with this past week at 130.2% (781/600)

Models showing this quiet spell of weather slowly breaking down in the fourth week with some colder days, would say 4.5 C looks good at this point for the bonus.

pauldry

This morning was jolly cold. First real frost of the Winter in Sligo Town.

Mustv got to -4 or -5 in Mt Dillon or Markree?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118488524#Comment_118488524

I was looking at MetE hourly reports this morning and all I saw was min. of -4c at Mt Dillon and Mullingar. Will have to wait for tomorrow's update to see if it did go lower.

DOCARCH

-4.8c min. at Mt Dillon yesterday.

Tae laidir

Bonus Q? starts tomorrow.

Thankfully, it was TMP, not PRC!

M.T. Cranium

I have a data base for daily SLP pressures at a grid point near the east coast (54N 6W) and the highest January average in the period 1851 to 2014 was 1028 mb in 1992. About ten per cent of the years exceeded 1022 mb and the long term average was 1011 mb.

This month may have a higher average than 1992 at this rate. (I have not had a chance to update the data for 2015 to 2021).

Will be updating the data for this month tomorrow with the "after three weeks" report and as TL mentioned, the bonus question will be the fourth week IMT value reported on the 29th for 22nd-28th. At the moment I would say 4.5 looks close.

Tae laidir

AntiCyclones arriving from the Atlantic have being acting like Depressions usually do in January.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.4 C, the third week average was 4.8 which was 0.4 below normal. The week was somewhat milder in the west, Shannon had an average of 6.3 (the normal there is 6.0). Casement was only 3.9 C. The IMT could come down slightly given the forecasts but probably not by a large amount, a finish around 5.0 to 5.2 seems most likely.

MAX remains 15.0 and MIN is now -4.8. There will not be a lot of pressure on either of those.

PRC is now down to 54 per cent of normal with this past week almost dry (15 per cent of normal, with the lowest value 4% at Casement and Oak Park). If it remained dry to the end of the month there has only been enough rain to guarantee 35%, so a finish around 40% is looking possible.

SUN holding well with an average now of 129.3% with the third week average 109.3% (656/600). It would take a value below 50% to drag this back to a normal finish. It does look rather cloudy so perhaps 110% would be the finishing value (that would require 75% for the last ten days).

The bonus question will be determined by the fourth week average of the IMT (for the 22nd to 28th).

M.T. Cranium

I will report on the fourth week tomorrow and that includes the outcome of the bonus question but, I peeked, and the outcome is already known (I think), the value will be equal to or higher than our highest forecast which was 6.6 from Artane2002.

The mean for 21st-27th is given as 6.4 C. The 28th has run about 3 C higher than the means for the 21st (which it will replace in the fourth week average) so that will likely be 6.7 or 6.8. (edit the actual outcome is 6.6)

Also, I plan to give out scores between 3 and 10 rather than 0 and 10, because no forecasts were all that far from the mean value at this time of year (around 5 C). Nobody went colder than 2.1 C (or warmer than 6.6). As the observed range is probably zero to 8.5, this makes me think no forecasts are so bad that they should receive no points or even 1-2 points. Discussion welcome. I have attempted to score by similar groupings rather than just go three at a time sort of an approach. The clustering was fairly tight around 5-7 points.

Unless there is some horrific error in my calculations and assumptions (has there ever? don't go there) these will be the scores ...

10 pts __ Artane2002 6.6 (+1 superbonus for perfect call), Kindred Spirit 6.2

9 pts ___ Mr Stonewall 5.9, Tae laidir 5.8, Pauldry 5.8

8 pts ___ Sunflower3 5.6, DOCARCH 5.1, dacogawa 5.1 (NormaL 5.3 from Ag Report)

7 pts ___ Gonzo and 200motels 4.9, sryanbruen and bsal 4.8, also Con Sensus 4.8, and john mac 4.7

6 pts ___ JPmarn, waterways, MrSkinner 4.5, Adam240610 4.4

5 pts ___ Joe Public, esposito 4.3, appledrop 4.2

4 pts ___ Bazlers 4.0, M.T. Cranium 3.9

3 pts ___ Danno 2.1

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 5.7, fourth week average 6.6 which is 1.3 above normal (according to Ag Report), changes "normal" in the bonus to 5.3. The IMT could edge up to 5.8 or 5.9 with rather mild temps continuing.

MAX still 15.0 and MIN -4.8 These look safe enough.

PRC now 44% with the fourth week only 11% of normal. This will finish near 50% and mercy rule scoring will apply. Our lowest forecast was 90% (MrSkinner) so the full boost will be applied to all. I guess the month looked to all of us like it might continue the trend established late in December but after about the 9th it has hardly rained at all. Our consensus forecast is otherwise quite good on other elements.

SUN down to 116% with the fourth week at 74.2% (445/600). This seems likely to finish around 110-115 per cent.

BONUS already discussed and scored in my previous post. Congrats Artane2002 who hit his number right on, and Kindred Spirit also maxing out on points. Will amend the discussion to give NormaL the correct forecast (as per the Ag Report, the score will not need adjusting) and also I think it's fair to add one superbonus point to the verified forecast.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has finished on 5.7 (5.74), its upward drift was not quite enough to change it after all.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -4.8

PRC est 45% (not worth calculating as I can get the final value from the MS tomorrow and it's well below our lowest forecast of 90%).

SUN probably close to 115%, est 113, the last three days did reasonably well compared to the 116% we had after four weeks.

BONUS 4th week average IMT 6.6, already scored (see above).

_ I will wait for the MS to appear at or about 1100h Wed 2nd to post scoring. PRC will require minimum progression, everything else should be okay from raw scores unless there are too many zero scores for MIN, if so the adjustments there will be quite small.

M.T. Cranium

9.8 x 31 = 303.8 normal sun total 6 loc, 359 h actual.

With the help of the met.ie MS, I have confirmed all the values listed in the previous post, the PRC was 43% and the SUN worked out to 118 per cent of normal using the data derived from normals and actuals.

These are the scores generated by the data ...

Confirmed scoring for January 2022

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Bonus ____ TOTALS

john mac____________25 _ 15 _ 19 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 82

Kindred Spirit ________23 _ 15 _ 19 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 10 ______ 80

___ Con Sensus ______24 _ 16 _ 20 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 80

DOCARCH ___________22 _ 16 _ 20 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 78

Pauldry ___ (-1) ______24 _ 16 _ 18 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 09 _79-1= 78

dacogawa ___________23 _ 20 _ 18 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 08 ______ 78

sunflower3 __________23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 08 ______ 77

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ___ 23 _ 10 _ 18 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 08 _75-3= 72

Tae laidir ___________ 23 _ 12 _ 16 _ 04 _ 06 ___ 09 ______ 70

Mr stonewall _________23 _ 14 _ 18 _ 01 _ 02 ___ 09 ______ 67

Appledrop ___________24 _ 19 _ 11 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 05 ______ 67

M.T. Cranium ________ 23 _ 18 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 65

sryanbruen __________21 _ 12 _ 07 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 65

waterways __________ 18 _ 19 _ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 65

MrSkinner __________ 21 _ 12 _ 06 _ 14 _ 04 ___ 06 ______ 63

Bsal _______________ 22 _ 10 _ 12 _ 04 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 61

___ NormaL _________19 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 08 ______ 60

Artane2002 _________ 19 _ 14 _ 03 _ 09 _ 03 ___ 11 ______ 59

200motels __________ 22 _ 13 _ 01 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 07 ______ 57

Bazlers _____________24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 56

adam240610 ________ 18 _ 11 _ 06 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 54

Jpmarn _____________22 _ 10 _ 03 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 54

esposito ____________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 ___ 05 ______ 52

Joe Public ___________17 _ 13 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 05 ______ 50

Gonzo ______________19 _ 13 _ 00 _ 01 _ 03 ___ 07 ______ 43

Danno ____ (-3) _____ 07 _ 11 _ 00 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 03 _ 33-3= 30

-----------------------

It was found that the MIN scores while creating almost the required number of zero scores, did not qualify for the boost from minimum progression and there was no fair way to apply it given that quite a few forecasts scored 17-20.

PRC was scored from minimum progression; there are no * symbols but all scores were boosted as close to a similar amount from the range of forecasts as possible.

BONUS _ note in the earlier post above, dasa29 was left off the scoring list and has been added to the group with 8 points (from 5.0).

So, quite a few high scores, congrats to John mac and Kindred spirit who edged out Con Sensus.

==============================

-----------------------

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX_score_MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Bonus (4th week IMT)

Gonzo ______________6.3 _ 15.7 (13) _ -2.3 _ 156 _ 082 ___ 4.9

Artane2002 _________ 6.3 _ 15.6 (14) _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 6.6

MrSkinner __________ 6.1 _ 14.2 (12) _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5

200motels __________ 6.0 _ 14.3 (13) _ -2.9 _ 108 _ 087 ___ 4.9

dacogawa ___________5.9 _ 15.0 (20) _ -4.6 _ 122 _ 086 ___ 5.1

sunflower3 __________5.9 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 5.6

Kindred Spirit ________5.9 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.9 _ 112 _ 094 ___ 6.2

Mr stonewall _________5.9 _ 14.4 (14) _ -4.6 _ 160 _ 077 ___ 5.9

Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.2 (12) _ -4.4 _ 131 _ 098 ___ 5.8

esposito ____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 (17) _ -2.2 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 4.3

Pauldry ___ (-1) ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 5.8

Bazlers _____________5.8 _ 13.7 (07) _ -8.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.0

___ Con Sensus ______5.8 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 111 _ 095 ___ 4.8

john mac____________5.7 _ 14.5 (15) _ -4.7 _ 103 _ 095 ___ 4.7

Appledrop ___________5.6 _ 14.9 (19) _ -3.9 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 4.2

M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 (18) _ -7.5 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 3.9

Dasa29 ___ (-3) _____ 5.5 _ 14.0 (10) _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 5.0

DOCARCH ___________5.4 _ 14.6 (16) _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 5.1

Bsal _______________ 5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -4.0 _ 135 _ 097 ___ 4.8

Jpmarn _____________5.4 _ 14.0 (10) _ -6.5 _ 140 _ 120 ___ 4.5

sryanbruen _________ 5.3 _ 15.8 (12) _ -6.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 4.8

___ NormaL _________5.1 _ 14.5 (15) _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 5.3

waterways __________5.0 _ 14.9 (19) _ -8.5 _ 100 _ 119 ___ 4.5

adam240610 ________5.0 _ 14.1 (11) _ -6.2 _ 123 _ 109 ___ 4.4

Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 14.3 (13) _ -6.9 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 4.3

Danno ____ (-3) _____3.9 _ 14.1 (11) _ -8.7 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 2.1

dasa29

Hi MT Cranium

thanks regarding the post on the bonus.

I am wondering but should I have have been on a -3 given my entry was 15 minutes after Danno's entry and yes I know I am shooting myself in the foot bringing it up.

M.T. Cranium

You are correct, have made the changes required to your scoring. You didn't lose ground anyway. Thanks for your honesty, now this is rather odd but I have been informed of one similar sort of oversight in each of the other two contests I organize on two other sites, and in each case somebody reported a detail to me that cost them some points. I need to slow down a bit, I think, these end of month days involve a blizzard of work while the other 28 or so days are much more leisurely.