Friday 17th December 2021

12.15 Uttoxeter

THE DENHOLM BANDIT 15/2 ew NAP

Only the four hurdles attempts to date, and he may well have won lto at Carlisle, but perhaps got to the front too early. That was a vast improvement in form; in a race in which he ran close to the pace, for a change, and also sported cheekpieces for the first time. He's also had wind surgery for the first time in the interim, and if he's ready to go after an absence - his lto run was way back in April - , he looks to have a solid chance in this. Being His 2nd run in a handicap is of interest also.

Only one other horse is of major interest in this, and that's...

IRISH SOVEREIGN 7/1 win

A lightly raced horse who discovered the winning thread over hurdles lto. He won at a massive price, over a similar trip as today's, and the race was ran in a fast time. That run was on the back of 5 poor runs, which included a bumper, 1 chase, and 3 hurdles' efforts. He had the first time blinkers on that day, and maybe he can repeat that performance...

Will give a 'favourable mention', to BARDD as well here, but @ 9/1 he's more than a bit short imo. Has a chance on some of his chase form, and he's up in trip and down in grade from when he lastly tackled the smaller obstacles, which was just over a year ago. Has only ever won once in the NH sphere, and that was a bumper for Nicky Henderson way back in 2016...

☺️ Gluck

4.00 Dundalk JUNO BEACH 10/1 win

Has only had the one run, and that was when he came 6th last week over a furlong further at the course. He broke slow that day, so if he breaks level, he appears bred for the minimum trip. The top two in the betting are Obtain & Sacred Territory, @ 4/5 & 5/2 respectively; with the fav having had four runs, and Sacred Territory with three, and neither looks to have rock solid claims here. I think OBTAIN is a lay bet here at 5/4 or shorter, as I feel something will beat him - he's had enough goes, and, if my calculations are right, his jockey S Bird has yet to ride a winner out of exactly 100 attempts 😲 (seems unusual that, but I think he is on zero winners in about 5 years of raceriding) ; also, if the 2nd fav Sacred Territory breaks better than last time, I see no reason why Chris Hayes' mount can't finish ahead of Obtain - Sacred Territory finished third to Orinoco River over C & D two months ago, with Obtain a 1/2length back in fourth - again.

I'm attempting a €10-€1000 (no particular sport) for the first time in many a moon.

€33 goin on Jonbon in the 14.20 at Ascot.

No good today.. Will go for a last pick at Dundalk...

7.30 Dundalk NEVER BACK DOWN 8/1

Wide open race this, and there are a lot (maximum 14 go to post) of horses in this extended 10f affair. Will only be his second go at this sort of trip. Has been trained in England, and has had many different jockeys. The champ Colin Keane takes the ride, for only the second time, I think.. horse tried to make all lto over C & D and came third. Might be seen to better effect if he can be held up, and the jockey can get him settled. A lot of horses in this can be fancied for various reasons; not least the well supported Lily Of The Glen, but I'm thinking the high draw (12 of 14, but more likely 10 of 14 owing to the reserves who don't take part, with 2 of them three being drawn in the 2 lowest boxes) will do for her. The selection is a fair price going win only, and perhaps not so much for the place part, but I'll have to do him each way anyhow, being as he potentially might have a bit in hand, and, granted luck in running, may well be bang there at the end.....