Friday 10th December 2021

1.15 Cheltenham QUINTA DO MAR 6/1 Boyles ew NAP

Ben Pauling's 6yr old has won his last two races, and has won them either racing prominently, or making most. Like tomorrow's (today now haha) race, both were Class 3 Hurdles' affairs, and while they were both ran in average or slow times, it shows that he is up to the pace in this sort of grade. Has a good clock from a Class 4 victory at Ludlow in March.. Doesn't have any question marks at all imo..

JP's Broomfield Burg is current best price 2/1 (on exchanges) favourite, and looks short at that.. Just the one hurdles' run to his name, where he came 2nd to Silent Revolution lto.. The time was nothing special, and he also took a lead from the winner, and was in front after the last, but was headed on run in. He was only 4 1/2 lengths in front of the third Boombawn at the finish, and Boombawn did nothing to frank the form, when coming third to another of JP's - in the shape of Jonbon - 3 weeks later. Broomfield Burg was an expensive purchase at £90,000 stg, and won his second bumper at 1/9.. An easy winner of both his bumper wins, but the time was nothing special in any of his runs.. Looks a lay at 2/1 or shorter to me..

One at a massive price, and who has been off for more than a year, with only 2 runs in the last 2 1/2 years, is Fergal O'Brien's FEEL THE PINCH @ 80/1 Boyles , and he has an outside each way squeak if he's ready to go, plus it's his first time in a handicap.

A favourable mention for Fergal O'Briens other runner CASTEL GANDOLFO 9/1 gen, who is capable enough, and is a fair price going win only.. I think QUINTA DO MAR is an excellent price, and if I was only having one bet, he'd certainly do me, at what looks a very generous price...

😊 Gluck

1.50 Cheltenham

A Mares' Chase, and 2 of the top three in betting have only had 1 spin apiece over fences, with the other, Rose Of Arcadia, having her first go over them.. Not hard to draw a line through them at the prices, and, though it's short odds one of them will win, one can be hopeful that a bigger priced one, perhaps with more experience, can oblige in a race like this..

No strong fancies, but I will consider these 3 for nominal stakes each way..

MOLLY CAREW 33/1 Boyles.

A massive price, with plenty of chasing experience, including 4 wins. Third in this two years ago, is only nine, and has won three times already this year.

PRETTY LITTLE LIAR 8/1 PP

An interesting one, as is trained by David Peter Dunne, who is not a trainer who would be associated with many winners, or sending his over to England. Also of note is that the man of the moment Robbie Dunne (presume he's a close relative of trainer) is due to take the ride - unless his ban has kicked in. Pretty Little Liar is one with 2 chase runs, including a win at Thurles last month, and was going well lto at the same track before falling at the eighth. She has four wins to her name this year between flat and NH.

METHODTOTHEMADNESS 25/1 PP/Boyles

Has plenty of chasing experience, and not the most reliable, but is pretty consistent and often finds herself well backed. Has an outside each way chance at the prices.

3.00 Cheltenham

A race, that such is it's distance (3m. 6f. 37yds.) , one won't appear much of a fool, regardless how their selection/s run. It's a trip that not many race over often - that's for sure.. That said, there will possibly be five places on offer, and I've gone with one that looks to have the best winning claims, and two, at prices, that are (hopefully 😃) capable of making the places...

PLAN OF ATTACK 9/2 general win.. Looks the most likely. Fourth over C & D lto... needs to improve on his jumping though. Wouldn't be doing him in ew multiples anyway 😃

FOX PRO 28/1 PP ew.... He's only 6, and came 7th over C & D lto.. Looks to be versatile regards how he's ridden, and may have a bit in hands regards handicap mark.. May try and chase the pace.

SUPER CITIZEN 40/1 PP ew ,,, Young enough at 7, and has never ran over this far as of yet. Thus, he hasn't proved he won't stay this marathon trip, and the price is right. Charlie Deutsch is down for the ride, which could be a positive, as in all bar one of his 15 previous outings outings under rules, he's had an amateur on top.

3.35 Cheltenham

Sporting John @ 15/8 will probably win, but hopefully one or two of these can run him close at least, and possibly win if he underperforms. Will do a lil each way on them, as the fav looks solid, and Fergal O'Brien's Onagatheringstorm looks good too; and, as well as that, Botox Has must be fancied stepped up in trip, as he's short enough.. can't rule out Kansas City Chief neither, so small stakes only..

SAINT DALINA 10/1 Boyles , FERROBIN 33/1 PP , ERNESTO 20/1 PP

2.25 Cheltenham

Not totally enamoured with the Nicholls' 5/2 jolly Enrilo.. I've no idea why Venetia's Commodore is second favourite for this. Whatever the reason, it's eluding me. I don't think anything has outstanding claims, and while cases can be made for some, or all of these, at either 3 miles, or 3m 5f/3m 6f, this race is over a specialist enough trip (methinks 😂) of 3m. 2f. , so some with solid 3m form may well not stay, and neither might my two picks, but I'll do em each way anyhow..

POTTERS LEGEND 14/1 PP/Boyles , COURT MASTER 20/1 PP

Also of interest; multiple Cheltenham Festival participant Santini has his first run for his new trainer (still same ownership) Polly Gundry, and he may well outclass all of them, so it's a favourable mention only, as, despite the class drop, I reckon he wants soft ground. Might well be wrong, but I'll overlook a former cliff horse here for punting purposes..

A few at Bangor

12.20 AMLOVI 20/1 Boyle ew

12.55 VOCALISER 13/2 Boyle ew NB , KESTREL VALLEY 14/1 PP/Boyle ew , THAIS TOIR 40/1 PP/Boyle ew

1.30 EQUUS DREAMER 9/4 Boyle ew , MUCKAMORE 11/4 Boyle ew , CUBAN PETE 17/2 PP ew , WAYFINDER 15/2 Boyle ew

2.05 HAPPY HOLLOW 7/4 Boyle win

2.40 AFTER THE FOX 6/1 gen win

Wouldn't be surprised if I get the first 4 in the 1.30 - just looks like that sorta race.. wouldn't be shocked if I don't even catch the winner, with half the field picked 😃 That's puntin' - ya puts your money doon etc etc..

piplip87

Pretty little liar and Santini for me. Santini could be finished but if anywhere near his best is the best horse in this race.

SonOfGoat

Well, some excellent opportunities today.

In the 12.05 at Cheltenham, the short price fav is getting plunged on - Hartur Doudairies currently 5/4 from bigger. This will not win here in my opinion. I've went through the form and stats and the chance of this horse winning is very slim. I'm very confident this horse won't win today. Max lay bet.

SonOfGoat

1.05 Doncaster, Wiseguy, horse is currently 4/5 and drifting . But this is a penalty kick. 4/5 is a bargain, have it priced at 1/4 and I'd even back it to win at that price. Won first race at Doncaster over 2m and hard fought win. Looking at that race you can tell the horse is screaming out for further. Over 3m today and should cruise to victory.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300237#Comment_118300237

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300601#Comment_118300601

WD!

SonOfGoat

Looks like Wiseguy will stay even further. I'll be keeping an eye on the horse. 2 more bets for me today, 1 in the 6pm Dundalk and 1 in the USA.

SonOfGoat

The 2.25 at Cheltenham is too much of a messy race to be getting involved in any serious way. Anything could win it, but 1 horse I'm pretty sure won't is Hurricane Harvey. The horse can be layed at roughly 5/4 and looks great value. Can't see it being in the first three. Not a good race betting wise.

SonOfGoat

Sporting John looks the one to beat in the 3.35 at Cheltenham. I had it as a possibility win bet this morning and now with the money coming for it l, I'd say it'll win or go very close. I'm not getting involved.

SonOfGoat

Last bets of the day.

4.30 Dundalk, knocklane lass, around 5/4. Win bet, looks nailed on.

6.0 Dundalk, a taad moody

SonOfGoat

Have to say in the 5.45 at Southwell, Danni California at 5/4 is great value. I wouldn't have backed the horse odds on but at 5/4 ill have it on. Decent run lto and dropped back 1f. If Hornby keeps it simple this will win well.

SonOfGoat

The USA bet I posted about earlier runs in the 6.26 at Gulfstream. I wasn't going to post it as its quite short at around 1/3 or 2/5. I'm still backing it to win. Race is delayed so another few minutes. Its like buying money. It'll hose in. That's me til tomorrow

SonOfGoat

Few nice bets going tomorrow. Keeping an eye on the USA here while studying. The fav in the 10.25 at hawthorn, missing the point at around 8/11 looks nailed on for the win. Ran over 1m recently and seemed to stay on, but in reality it was passing tired horses. 6f here. Probably sit off the lead and come with a rattle and ease past... Should do anyway.