Tuesday 30th November 2021

3.45 Newcastle

Will go with 3 each way here in a very open looking race.. Should be 4 places on offer with the books I'd imagine.

SAVALAS 10/1 PP/Boyle

Was reluctant to include this fella as he's out of form, but hard to overlook nonetheless, as he's down in grade and handicap topweight. Has a good high draw in 14, and is a winner on the surface before, as he has won on the #Tapeta at Wolverhampton over the same 5f trip in July of last year.

STAY SMART 8/1 PP

Appeals at the prices.. Is another with a high draw that has won over the trip at Wolverhampton. Is still a colt too, whatever the reason - always assume it's a good one regardless 😄

ROYDMOOR 14/1 Boyles

Came third on his only visit to the course, which was over tomorrow's trip 2 runs back. Is only three, and is previously a winner over five on turf..

#Regards the Tapeta - It appears that Southwell has changed it's AW surface from fibresand to tapeta... Heard PJ McDonald on about it on SSR early on, where three races with 8 runners in each were trialed on it this morning; with those races being held over 5f, 7f, and 1m 4f iirc.. He gave it good reviews, and said that it's a very fair track; and the 'kickback' wasn't an issue, as it was when they ran on fibresand, where they used go very fast early on, and often end up with the finish being a grind. Anyway, it looks as though the races will be more truer run affairs "going forward" 😂

Gluck 😊

11.40 Lingfield

SEVERUS ALEXANDER 14/1 PP, Boyles ew

The first, and only horse I looked at in this race. Came third over C & D two runs back, when drawn 12 of 12. Not the most consistent, and probably needs the race to pan out for him; and is as liable to be staying on strongly at the end, or even win, as he is to fade and look like a non stayer. That Lingfield run, and another third place finish over 2f shorter at Chelmsford in March, give him a solid squeak here..

In the interests of 'integrity' 😁 , I had a look at the top two in betting (7/1 bar) - Owen Little and Smith - to see if the favs were 'worth taking on' , and I think SMITH 10/3 Boyles has got a live chance on the back of his C & D win lto, and is worth a win bet at them odds. Could well see him going off at ~ 9/4 or 2/1, or even shorter. Owen Little is a general 9/4 shot and tops the market, but I think Smith should hold that position, as Owen Little has only had four runs, and the race he won lto was over 2m at Kempton on Standard to Slow going, plus he's drawn very wide in stall 13. I think there's more to take on trust with Owen Little than SMITH, and I reckon the reason why Matt Crawley's (first time I heard of him) inmate is fav, is due to the fact that he's only three, has just had the five runs, and is progressive at these staying trips, and the books would rather keep him 'onside'... Can see him drift, but unlikely SMITH will get much bigger..

SMITH - NAP 10/3 Boyles win

Had a look at a few more and....

I see that Smith won the race that Severus Alexander came third in, and the one that split them in coming 2nd was HANNALITE, and she was a bit unlucky, having been up with the pace and then shuffled back.. She's drawn wide in stall 12 which, I hope, will suit. None of the 4 mentioned may win, and it's possible that Owen may be the fly in the ointment, but at the prices I can't ignore the three picks.. Will do 2 each way and Smith win, as long as the prices are as favourable in the morning as they are now..

HANNALITE 7/1 PP ew

3.15 Lingfield

DAANY 11/2 PP, Boyles ew

Has never ran at the course, but did win over a mile on a similar surface not too long ago. That was at Chelmsford in September. Out of form on his next two runs, but came a respectable third lto; albeit on a different surface, and over a slightly longer trip, when running over the extended mile at Wolves just under 3 weeks ago. That shows that he's at least in form, plus he was well supported that day too. An apprentice race, and Levi Williams is a decent jockey who normally claims 7. He's had 20 runs so far this season without a win, and hopefully Levi can get off the mark in a race where it's hard to say with certainty that any given horse will even place, let alone win, imho..

😊

Bridal Knot (13:55 Southwell)

Lydford (15:00 Southwell)

Double at 9/2

Bridal Knot has gone walkies in the betting...

SonOfGoat

Couple of bets on the USA.

11pm Penn National, Brodix is currently 13/8. I've bee backing bits and pieces at a little better odds, but at 13/8 looks a steal. The race is only over 6f but this horse gets held up and will eat up the ground and win well in my opinion. Excellent run at delaware lto and similar track here. Good win bet here.