Sunday 31st October 2021 - Last Day of the Irish Flat Season

Getting this one going. Will hope for better luck tomorrow 😊 Took a look at Carlisle, and like a couple each way at low double figure prices. Both go in the same race.... Will wait a bit before I put them up.

12.50 Carlisle

Seems most books are quoting at this stage....

Many of these are having their first go over the larger obstacles, and some like to try make all. By process of elimination, as well as form; I've managed to get two with seemingly reasonable chances - one is having his first go over fences, and the other has already had 4 attempts.. And a tentative outsider as well....

LE CHEVAL NOIR 14/1 PP/Boyles...... Is a C & D winner over hurdles, on heavy; but doesn't need testing ground, as shown when winning at Newcastle in March on good to soft - soft in places.. Like the other pick, this one doesn't need to go from the front, and will likely hopefully chase the pace, or be close enough to it... With the combination of first timers over the big jumps, plus the tendency of a few in this who like to lead; I be thinking that the race won't be won by a frontrunner here.. Being as it's Le Cheval Noir's first spin over fences; he may well be held up out the back, as he did to positive effect, when winning last November at the track, when hurdling...

GLENDUFF 16/1 PP/Boyles... Has had 4 spins chasing, and apart from his first go, they have all been on slightly better ground than he will likely face tomorrow. That first chase bid was on soft, and was the poorest of his 4 showings over them fences, but no harm. He was beaten 30 lengths that day at Musselburgh in February, but made a few mistakes (or was at least not fluent over a few) .. In his following 3 races, he didn't appear to make any such mistakes, and finished close enough without winning any of them three races. The ground probably wasn't soft enough for him in any of those recent bids, and now that he goes back over 2 1/2 miles on soft, with the added bonus of more experience, he can be a contender here. He won a hurdles race over C & D two years ago on soft ground...

Both are C & D winners from their hurdling days on ground ranging from soft to heavy, and both are 'winners at this time of the year'... Enough to like for me 😋

Am happy with both them picks for nominal each way stakes, and will hope at least one is looking likely 2 out. Good luck to anyone who has a strong fancy here, but at 3/1 the field, it's difficult to be 'bullish' about anything in this.

As an outsider, and a chasing newcomer, maybe a few pennies win on MR SCRUMPY @ 22s gen, but he has been out of sorts the last yr or so, but perhaps may come good after his layoff...

On a 1 to 5 points system... Recommendation 1pts ew on the main picks, and 1/2pt win on the one just above...

😊

1.05 Huntingdon

Don't like the fav Marajman, who has been mainly racing over further, when with Willie in Ireland..

Seeing as this one is 'making the prices' for everything else, it's a confident enough 1pts win on each of two here. Both have won over the trip on the promised good ground in the not too dim and distant past. I expect one of these to win. If the fav wins, so be it, but I don't know why he's 8/11. If he doesn't win, then, well, the chances of a reasonably priced (although at lower odds) and 'value' winner look assured 😁 - I wish!... I didn't factor in the possibility of the 'ground deteriorating' , which is not unlikely at this time of the year; but, if the goalposts move, then so be it.. As things stand, they'll (the 2 picks) do me for now..

SHANROE TIC TAC 1pt win 10/3 PP...Boyles

HUMANISTE 1pt win 4/1 gen

And a 1/2pt reverse forecast on t'brace

Gluck 😊

One more at Huntingdon...

3.55 Hunt.

Although the favourite Uno Mas is top price 4/5 with 888, and a general 8/11 shot, and carries top weight, he doesn't look like he'll be beat in the last at Huntingdon tomorrow. A decisive winner of his last two over similar trips is enough to temper confidence - even at the cramped odds - of declaring him a solid lay proposition..

Will hope to get a decent run from one at a reasonable each way price in the shape of:

OUT THE GLEN 10/1 PP ew

Has had a couple of decent hurdles' runs at about this time last year. Hasn't had much racing in the last year, and can discount his last run, which was his sole chase effort, at Ffos Las, in April. Is now with Olly Murphy, is young enough at 8, and is a former C & D winner. Hard to know how he'll fare on his first time out for a new yard, but he has form in the book, and, while Debra Hamer aint a bad trainer, young Olly will probably be able to get a better tune out of him.. I make him about a 15/2 shot, and thanks to the odds on jolly, he's that, and more..

RACING SPIRIT 14/1 PP/Boyles

Has claims on a few of his runs.. Could be bigger, but, barring the favourite, there's not much in the line of good decent/recent form on offer.

As regards Abington Park, he's only had three runs so far for his latest trainer, Alex Hales, and, going by his latest 2 runs, I'm guessing this extended 3m 1f trip may stretch him. Either way, it's likely only place money I'll be playing for, and am happy to leave him out of calculations.. Moidore is getting on at twelve, and hasn't won in 2 1/2yrs. Lord Sparky has some good recent chase form, and can't be ruled out, but at 8 or 9/1, he's not screaming out to be backed...

13 go to post, so hopefully be 4 places a fifth going here. Also, hopefully the ground remains good!

Recommendations:

OUT THE GLEN 1pt ew 10/1 , RACING SPIRIT 1/2pt ew 14/1

Gluck 😊

Cork Grand National 3.00

Two that stand out here are the topweight and fav Russian Diamond, and Last year's winner Dromore Lad. Russian Diamond could well be a 'Handicap Blot' as he's well inside the 150 ceiling, being rated 136. When it comes to 'Nationals' and the like, I never considered that there might be a ratings ceiling for qualification, but apparently there is, which is why I decided to check out the race 'conditions' before I mentioned the blot part 😊 Anyway; though he may well hack up, he's not for me @ a very best 4/1 and general 7/2 hope, being as he's never even raced at - never mind won - 3 miles, let alone beyond, so hard to make a case for him over 3m. 4f.

Dromore Lad was meritorious of a look, but as he won last year's renewal on soft to heavy, I have to factor in the better going of yielding - soft, and reluctantly swerve him at a not ungenerous 10/1.

I opted for one here, and it's a far from confident pick in EUROBOT @ 11s, who's a winner over hurdles over 3m at the course on soft-heavy. I think soft ground will suit, as he beat Choungaya over fences at a trip of 2m. 6f. in November of last year. Will draw a line through his last 2 races as they were ran on ground close to yielding, and he fell early on in one..

Having thought further about the E. Mulliins jolly, I think whatever about 'staying the trip' , at this level he perhaps might want better ground, so will give him a recommendation of sorts.

Recommendation: EUROBOT 1pt ew 11/1 PP....

RUSSIAN DIAMOND - if he gets/goes to 11/4 or shorter, then consider a 4-place lay, (scratch that, am not familiar with place prices on BF, but if he gets to 1.6 or shorter, then he's worth a 3-place lay, and if he goes to1.5 or shorter, a 4-place lay could be in order imo... Could well be that he'll be above 2.0 for 4 places, let alone 3, but something to consider)

EDIT - regards place lays, and, if at them odds; recommendation: 3 plce lay @ 1pt, 4 plce lay @ 1.5 pts.

1.50 Cork BROOKS FALLS 40/1 gen

This one looks just as hard to solve as the National, so I went for one at a massive price that might be one or two price changes above what she should be. Her latest run at Ballinrobe appeared to be an improvement of sorts, and she could be staying on late to grab some ew money.

Recommendation: BROOKS FALLS 1pt ew 40/1 gen

Espoir De Romay 14.00 Carlistle

Cape Gentleman 14.25 Cork

7/1 double.

Cape Gentleman is a talented boyo. Could be a very good one.

He's up against no mugs today.

charlesanto

Cork Grand National

Agent Boru 14/1 E/W

I'm having a go on Above Suspicion in the 15.25 at Huntingdon

5/1

3.35 Lingfield

Fancy too many here haha ! Narrowed it down to 2 picks...

GO WHATEVER 13/2 PP/BOYLES , VOYAGE DE RETOUR 9/1 PP/BOYLES

1pt ew and 1/2pt win on each...

Great race in the 2 o'clock at Carlisle.

Four of them jumped the third last at the same time before Ahoy Senor fell at the second last, Espoir De Romay tired in third and Fiddlerontheroof and Pay the Piper battled to the line with Fiddler getting there by about a length.

That Declan McGonagle is a right good apprentice 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097292#Comment_118097292

Good call on Cape Gentleman! Could have been 3/10 the way he won!!