A Loser A Day - A Log - Is picking losers as easy as it looks?

Starts tomorrow 21st October 2021..

What the thread title says, and for amusement/entertainment purposes only...

Rules - I will try and pick 'A Loser A Day'.... Game over for me if I pick a winner 😊

Will try to keep all selections at single figure prices, to make it more difficult. no picks above 9/1 with the "main books"... Exchanges don't count.. This can't be a hard and fast rule, as prices fluctuate.... Minimal (hopefully none ☺️) liberties will be taken with the 'single figure price' rule, but it's not an instant disqualification/.

Re: the above..... picks have to be submitted *no earlier than 6.30pm the previous day (or whatever time the races are priced online)... Not a hard and fast rule either, as a short priced shorty eg is hardly gonna go above 9s... Also re the above, if a horse is picked, and is best priced single figures at the time of posting, but returns at double figures, this won't constitute a liberty, and the stewards won't be looking at it 😊 *It may not always be possible to post the next day, so sometimes putting them up the previous evening may be called for....

Regarding time constraints/feasability of posting, picks ( if they're liable to be under 10/1) can be posted a day or more in advance (as long as the decs are in). Again, not a hard and fast rule...

Reason/s for why I think a horse won't prevail are not required..

If I don't pick a selection on a particular day, then I'm due 2 the next.... and so on....

Same if the pick is a nr (absent a *sub nominated the above applies)... *I may also 'put in a sub(s)' to account for any possible non-runners... The performance of any sub is irrelevant to the continuation of the thread, if the Main Pick goes on the day..

Rules of racing regarding refusals to race - if a horse refuses, it will count as a loss.. As regards picking in advance, if any horse is scratched/withdrawn etc, then they are not counted as a pick, and I have to pick 2 the next day (as mentioned before) , unless a sub has been chosen..

For the purposes of multiple selections (non runners / no pick(s) in a day/period of days would necessitate 'multiple picks' ) in a day, more than 1 pick can come from any given race...

*If I go above 7 days (that racing takes place) without a pick - game over... *Any days during that 7 day period that either don't have racing, or where all racing is abandoned, do not count..

British and Irish race meetings only..

Subs/substitutions are not required, but, if in the case of a day with 'multiple selections' , any subs nominated must correspond to a particular selection.. A sub may be used for more than 1 pick in a day, but if the sub has to be "utilised" in more than 1 race, then Game Over//

500 days is the goal 😁

EDIT multiple picks and subs can come from the same race...

Carrying over is allowed ie if I'm due 4 picks on a given day, I can pick 1 or 2 or 3, as long as I don't go beyond 7 days in a row without a pick.

At any stage I can change my mind, and 'cancel a pick' (or a sub) as long as this is done before the official race time (or the 'due off' time, if racing is running late) eg if another short one is scratched, or even for no reason at all. *A cancelled pick can be replaced on the day (as can any sub/s), or allowed to 'roll over'.... If a pick is cancelled, then any sub previously mentioned does not count, unless stated..

If the race is a 'walkover' ie only one takes part/is awarded the race, and that horse is the pick, then that counts as void for selection purposes.. Similarly, if the selection is the only one that feels like taking part in a given race, and completes the course, then it's 'Game Over'...

Edit no 2 - I may put in a disclaimer with a pick eg if, in a particular race, my selection (will call this A) faces another horse (call B) and I'm worried (as in not taking part) about its (B's) participation, I might put in something like: If horse B doesn't participate (is declared a non/withdrawn eg) then 'A' is no longer a selection . This can be done at any time before a race, and if any subs are selected, then they are also void (unless stated). Bit of a tricky one as regards 'taking liberties' , as the sub (if any) may have ran in a previous race.

Will wait a bit before posting to see if I need to tweak any of the rules.

^^

Am gonna update OP, as a few thoughts occurred..

I thought of this idea a couple of days ago, but it was only when I put pen to paper that I began to think of rules/selection criteria etc.. So with that in mind, hopefully, when read in totality, there are no discrepancies or inconsistencies in the OP 😊 Will reconcile with logic if something doesn't make sense.

Regards the thread/OP: TLDR - The purpose of the thread is to pick a loser a day (until I don't ) for as long as possible... And there won't be any 50/1 or 100/1 shots among the selections...

criticize all ye want, but it's a thread for picking losers, and not a "Here's a novel idea that no one's ever thought about before in the history of online threaderage" , so no criticism with regards to originality please 😊

1st Pick - Good luck OP!!

Thursday 21st October

Thurles 2.20 Hollymount /Odds on with all the books, bar the one who goes 22/19 , so this one definitely qualifies...

Sub (if required) 3.15 Ludlow Printing Dollars - Best priced 5/1 bar that same bookie (SBK) who go 'win only' and just above 6/1.. Will discount (oddschecker do, even though they quote their price) them, and any books who may go 'win only' when offering odds..

Have to get over the first hurdle first 😊 , but justin casey I manage to go a long spell on here, I might as well have my rules down! Thought of another one or two this morn and while I was about to catch a few zeds last night 😊 Should still be able to edit the OP, so that's what I'll try and do now..

All this crap about 'subs' 😊 The idea (the main idea) is to pick 1 selection, and 1 only, per day, and every day... But the horse may not go, hence the subs. And as far as the latest edit (edit no 2) goes, I may have a good one picked out early on, or the night before (and then a 4/5 shot gets pulled)... so subs, disclaimers etc is to level the playing field for me, and, insofar as possible, to post every day, and not to leave gaps of days with no picks...

Thread's only for entertainment purposes, and may well go down early, and it's only a log, so I did me best with the rules. If it was a comp, or anything like that, there'd already be a few stewards, but it's not!

hawley

9-1 is a very short arena in which to pick from. Could have gone to 16. Making it hard on yourself. Bad luck OP

More than plenty of scope to find a few at 9/1 or under imo.. Should be anyway!

hawley

Good start. Was very tight contest.

Happy to get the first one ta!

Day 2! Friday 22nd October

Newbury 5.35 Super Superjack - generally 5/1 across the board - bet365 go 7/1... How they are almost always best price is beyond me... Even that 'win only' bookie mentioned yesterday goes 6/1.

EDIT SS is a non in the 5.35...

Gone for a replacement pick

Sometimes Always 4.15 Cheltenham .. Best priced 13/2

^^^

non runner now 😴 I'll have to have a think..

^^^

I thought about it, and edited in a new pick to the 'OP' there...

Day 3! Saturday 23 October

Sometimes Always proved an able deputy for the sidelined Super Superjack (who got scratched early on in the day) and the thread goes on 😊

Haul Away 4.05 Cheltenham Was erring on the side of caution, and aiming for 'higher single figures' with this one - was about 10s with 3 or so of the layers quoted on oddschecker, and 9s or less with the rest, as I looked last night.. Thought/hoped he might shorten.. Sadly no, as discerning punters weren't fooled by his two recent 1s; which were gained in lesser races, and in smaller fields 😁 Is now a BP 20s with 365

Tried to pick the winner of that race, but gave up after I narrowed it down to a half dozen 😂 Tullybeg @ 11/4, I think can go well in the above race, after beating Hewick lto at Gowran over 3m, but to me, that race is a lottery...

Anyway, onto the day's selection... I was struggling to find one, but in the end, I decided to stick my neck out and go with a shorty 😁.. Without any further todo, the SATURDAY PICK is COCO BEAR 1.00 Doncaster Best Price 10/3 with Willie Hill... Am counting on him not staying the 7 today...

Honourable mentions go to.... Choungaya 2.27 Galway BP 15/2 , Bluenose Belle 8.00 Chelmsford a general and best priced 9/2, Western Beat 8.30 Chelmsford BP 7/2, Ilaraab 2.35 Newbury BP & 9/2 gen, and Noble Truth 2.00 Newbury BP 6/5 (can see him run well, but I think Light Infantry beats him)

And Coco Bear obliges by coming fifth to take us into day 4...

At this stage I'm liking another shortish one for Aintree tomorrow... A bit early to put the pick up yet, so, unless I find another one in the meantime; the 'provisional pick' will be put up, but, if so, he's liable to get scratched tomorrow; that is, if it gets soft at the Liverpool venue, as the pick is (for thread purposes) 'ground dependant' . Might have something else picked out before that, but the horse in question aint partaking in any of the earlier races, and should have a good handle on what conditions are by then.....

Day 4! Sunday 24th October

4.10 Aintree Pounding Poet Best Price 3/1 888sport, and 11/4 gen

Am happy to have this fellah as the pick, so long as the going remains good (gd - gd to sft in plcs is the hurdles' going description atm) . I think there are a few who like the good ground here, and I think (hope) the selection may find the pace a bit quick if there aint a lot of juice in the ground. If I had to pick the winner here, I think Mackleduff is very fairly priced @ 6/1 with PP.....

And the Sunday pick *loses, so the thread goes on.... *I guess winning and losing can be interchangeable when picking losers is the thread purpose... Pounding Poet came 2nd, so it's a winner for the thread 😁

Day 5! Monday 25th October 2021

3.15 Redcar Forever Forward Best price and general even money shot... 365 are cowering by going 4/7 😊

Apparently the best horse in the race, and owned by Munir and Souede... Is entered in this seller, and is not the only one to have never won a race. Has come placed a few times and that's about it. Although the opposition is very poor, the jockey Tom Marquand has only ever ridden one winner at the track, and I also think Bad Rabbit can go well here, based on his 2nd over C & D last October. Is available at 9/1, and may well go off shorter, and Bad Rabbit is my idea of a good each way bet in this poor affair. The 11/2 2nd fav All Things Bright is not without a chance here, and also looks overpriced at 11/2, but I think it's easier to make a solid case for Bad Rabbit. I think one, or both of these, can beat the poor value shorty here....

Forever Forward drifts like a barge, and ends up 3rd @ 5/1..

Day 6! Tuesday 26th October

4.35 Newcastle Sophosc 365 are out on their own going best price of 7/4

Honourable mentions to Metal Man 3.50 Catterick with 365 out on their own with a BP of 11/8 - next best price a general 11/10 , and Zoom Star 2.05 Catterick BP with 888sport @ 13/2

Along with Ilaraab at Newbury on the 23rd, Zoom Star (today in the 2.05 Catt) becomes the 2nd 'favourable'/'honourable' mention to sully the thread 😴; but thankfully the 'Main Picks' have, thus far, not been in front where it counts 😊

As far as today's pick (Sophosc 4.35) goes; I'm happy that he won't be good enough to hold on, if he tries to lead, or set sail for home early; nor do I think he has 'solid staying credentials' should he be held up... About 23/10 with the exchanges, which doesn't scream poor value, so I wouldn't be a layer at them odds 😁

Sophosc loses (4th) .. Thread survives another day 😊

Day 7! Wednesday 27th October 2021

4.55 Nottingham Angels Roc Best Price 3/1 with 365.. 11/4 general

Has the assistance of top amateur Simon Walker, but has yet to win. Is handicapped well enough, and sports 1st time cheekpieces, and has being going close over the 10f trip recently while seeing some support. I think he'll not be far away tomorrow, but I feel something will beat him, to bring his tally to 14 and 0. I think the maiden Mrs Meader 10/1 PP , and the last time out winner Possible Ambition at 9/2 PP, Boyles can also go well. Sobriquet @ 8/1 is interesting at the trip and ground, and based on her last two runs (both over a mile, and both hold up rides) at Brighton, it's difficult to leave her out of calculations.

EDIT : Replacement pick 6.00 Dundalk Beleaguerment Best Price 4/1 with 4 or so of the books,,,, is mostly a 7/2 chance. Am confident of this fellah's losing claims

Had another comment that I thought I posted as a prelude to the edit of the post above, but must (obvs 😊) not have clicked post 😌... Ground changing was the reason for the replacement pick.. Anyway, Beleaguerment lost by unseating rider shortly after leaving stall..

Day 8! Thursday 28th October

1.45 Clonmel Everlastingromise Best Price 4/1 PP along with 2 others - BV & sport match? (writing so small, I can't make it out)

Has finished no better than 3rd out of 6 goes over hurdles. Probably a few who can beat this one here, which is trained by Bolger and owned by JP. Of the main (top NH trainers - Elliott, Mullins, Henry, Jessica [perhaps] , and Meade [perhaps] ) trainers, only Elliott is represented, and his sole representative Cute Cherry doesn't have the best form figures; and that is probably why the pick is vying for favouritism.. I just had a look at the 15/4 BP with PP fav Definiteadare, and its form looks rock solid going by its victory over a similar trip lto. Definiteadare is my idea of the winner here....

2.40 Stratford Onemorefortheroad Best Price 85/40 with 888 sport, 2/1 general

Because I think JP's Call Of The Wild wins here.

Everlastingpromise is a nr. Will put up another selection..

Game Over! Onemorefortheroad comes home in front 😴

VelaSupernova

Laying Absolute Dream in the 6:30 Newcastle. 2 pts @ 7/2.

VelaSupernova

Absolute Dream wins by a literal nostril. We go again tomorrow.