Wednesday 20th October 2021

Going to go with a ???????? to resume the winning thread!

2.40 Newmarket AL NAFIR

One of two Charles of Appleby has in this exciting maiden, with plenty of the big stables represented, and lots of good form on offer. I just think he's the best horse in this on the strength of his 2nd on his first go over 2fs shorter at the course 3 weeks ago.... Scratch all that - he's 8 to ruddy 13 😦 Was writing me comment afore I checked oddschecker... Given he was quoted @ 5/2 under the racecard, I was expecting 2s at least 😩 Not to be.. Can't be having him at those odds...

An ew alternative for small stakes, which I was gonna put up regardless, is LUIS FERNANDO @ 20/1 PP , who's about twice the price he should be...

5.00 Newmarket DEVASTE 7/1 PP

Was held up over C & D 3 runs back and came a respectable 4th.. Tackled a Class 2 over 6fs at headquarters last time out. My theory is that he tackled the shorter trip to get a bit of speed into him, so as to put him cherry ripe for a tilt back at 7 (which he's won over before) . Price is only moderate, so win only is the recommendation on David Elsworth's charge here.... Gwan Hayley!

That's enough shiitalkie for the one day.. Gluck 😊

1.38 Worcester

An open looking Class 3 Handicap Chase this, where it's 4/1 the field, with Dan Skelton's Across The Line heading the top of the market. A few inexperienced ones in this, and some whom I hope will prefer better ground. Have gone for two each way here at friendly prices.

STATUARIO 12/1 Boyles

Came a very good 2nd at Warwick in May in a 2m Class 4. Hasn't fared as well since he followed that run up with another good second at Southwell on his next outing. At the prices I'm excusing his last 3 runs using a combination of good ground (as I think softer will help at this level) , higher Class races, and a trappy 4 runner affair at Newton Abbot; when carrying a big weight.

OUT ON THE TEAR 9/1 Boyles

Has come 2nd, 1st and second on his last 3 outings (all chasing) on heavy and soft going. Two of those were at an almost identical distance as today's 2m trip. So he has consistency going for him. Hasn't run since January, so that's a slight concern.

Haven't backed any of the picks yet. The spirit is willing, but the flesh is decidedly unmotivated to leave the house atm, mainly due to a poor showing yesterday..

Anyhoo, Gluck all ☺️

Al Nafir is a nr in the 2.40.. Maybe one of the stable lads temporarily nobbled him, on account of being disgusted at the paltry 4/6 on offer 😊 Maybe dem lads is waiting for another day, although with the form some of these have shown, it would want to be a very hot maiden for them lads to be getting 2s on Al Nafir..

I did done them mules above (all ew) and took Luis Fernando 11/1 , Devaste 8/1 PP (was tempted by the slightly higher price and the 5 places), and the 2 at Worcester were got at the same prices as in above post...

j@utis

I've got no time today for this brain exercise today, so only one bet for me in 2:55 Navan - Tide of Time - runs well here, good second last time. Another one I like in this race is Swift Light - could be progressing type but I don't back multiple losers in the same race lol.

SonOfGoat

1pm Newmarket, Social contact, 7/4. Max lay bet here. I'm sure this won't win here.

1.08 Worcester, The toojumpa, around 11/10. Confident win bet here. This is the definition of a handicap snip. Jumps around wins.

1.15 Navan, Neo soul, around 9/4. Win bet here, not much in the race and a decent price to boot.

Not a place even in the 1.38 😕

Going really does change quickly 😉 - I thought it was good to firm at Newmarket last I checked (soft now 😩 😒) ; i'd say I've done me dosh on Devaste in the 5.00....