Tuesday 19th October 2021

Have a few picked out for tomorrow.. About a dozen or so in 6 or 7 races. Might try and whittle them down a bit... Looking at Yarmouth and have a few picked out for there, and will hope the going doesn't change between nigh and tomorrow. According to description it's been good/good-good to soft in places for the last day or so, but, for all I know, it might already be soft there... A few at GP as well, as well as a couple at Exeter....

Fwiw, hope to post them tomorrow.

j@utis

2:55 Gowran - Hot Bell is interesting one, money poured in last time with no obvious reason before the race and she almost brought it home. We'll see how the market is tomorrow.

The jury has come in, and these are the ones I have founded for Choose-d 😁. Average about 2 per race 😊 Couldn't trim them down any further than that.. Maybe a euro each way on them for anyone at a loss for inspiration. Am doing them all ew myself. Most are double figure prices, with a few short ones around 3 - 4/1... Too many for any sort of write up...

Gowran

1.15 Celebrate In Style 8/1 Was way bigger last night, and at around 8.30 this am when I last checked about 18s were available.. Fml ☹️

4.40 Wolf Prince 4/1 , Ballinlough Gale 16/1

5.15 Jake Peter 16/1 NB, All Class 4/1 , Weather Alert 13/2

Exeter

1.30 Snug As A Bug 5/1 , Eclair Des Sablons 8/1 . Was hoping that Eclair Des Sablons would be bigger when looking at the race, going by his form figures, but sadly no..

Yarmouth... Am really counting on the going being good, or as close as possible to good at this meet... Hope so.. I see a couple of nons who go on soft, so maybe not much rain will come.. I had good(ish) going as a main criteria for picks here... Rain is promised apparently.. 😶

3.40 Nine Elms 10/1 , Voi 11/1 ..... I looked through this race twice and drew a line through both these the first time.. But I couldn't find any other picks, so upon looking again, I considered these two to have the least worst chances.. 😂

4.15 Gold Souk 18/1, Crystal Guard 11/1

4.50 Katyusha 10/3 Boyles , Biplane 11/1 NAP

5.23 Miss Bella Brand 9/2

😊 Good luck all

5.15 Gowran Weather Alert a non... Pretty ironic inasmuch as us punters like to be 'alerted' to weather for ground reasons.. Looking at him this morning; I was reminded/worried about how the going can quickly change - yet more often than not, bar the track is blatantly soft before racing; if the going has changed for the worse, it's usually only after the 1st or 2nd race, that it's 'officially' changed - granted the horses running on it in the first race or two might lend conditions to getting softer, but that was most likely the state of the ground beforehand....!!

Anyway, onto the ones that are most likely taking part. Will look at a couple of them here:

NAP 4.50 Yarmouth Biplane. Has had four runs in total, including her last 3 on the AW. She won lto at Newcastle on Standard to Slow going over today's trip of 7f, but that's only partly why she gets the NAP vote today.. The reason I'm hanging my hat on her is her first ever run, which was at Redcar in July over the seven furlong trip. That was on pretty much identical ground as today, and although well beat by 6.5 lengths, she still managed 2nd place on her first ever run. Her next 2 runs - prior to winning lto at Newcastle - were also at the Northern AW venue, and were poor enough, but I will not put too much stock into those..

NB 5.15 Gowran Jake Peter. Can definitely stay 14fs on good ground, and on a couple of occasions he was staying on over 11fs at Limerick on soft / soft to heavy.. Potential to stay the almost 14fs of 1m. 5f. 172 yds on soft, plus (perhaps mainly 😊) his relatively big price, earns him the "Next Best" vote here on his 2nd run for his new trainer (still same ownership).

There be my thoughts on a couple of my 14 or so picks.. A big priced winner be nice 😋

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118038257#Comment_118038257

Has seen a bit of money early doors - was 6/1 or 13/2, and now about half the firms go 9/2, and the rest 5s (apart from 365, who have her at 13/2 {how they're often 'top price' 'out on their own' is beyond me... } , but not concerning me as don't punt online). Not having a bet in this, and would be worried about Hogan's Dutch Schaefer and Meade's (who must be as short as he is for a reason) 7/4 jolly Evergreen and Red.

If I were to have a bet (or 2) in this race it would be small each ways on Due North @ 20/1 and The Last Knight @ 28/1. The likely winner, I feel, is Dutch Schaefer @ 5/1, but that race she won 10 days ago was over a furlong shorter, and seemed to come from nowhere really; plus factoring in the distance, plus Hogan not being the most trustworthy, I wouldn't like to back his filly in this.

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118041225#Comment_118041225

I agree with you on Dutch Schaefer most likely winning this. I have doubts about Evergreen & Red, he's close to top weight in the mud today & no jockey claim this time to lighten his burden. I like Dazzling Spirit from the long shots, she was given mark of 75 last year for not showing much but is starting of 59 in this, only second run this season.

mirwillbeback

Some gamble on Jimmy McGill in the 3.30.

Freely available at 33s this morning, 10/3 favourite!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118041411#Comment_118041411

The mud surely has to be a worry for Evergreen And Red backers, who's getting prohibitively priced, and he also looks like he might want a longer trip on this ground; that's if he even acts on the surface...

In other news, no joy in the first at Gowran 😑

I don't like that gamble on that horse in the next at Exeter,,,, Think he'll take too much cajoling for an amateur, so Good Bye gets a bye bye from me 😊

Another blank in the 1.30..

2.50 Newcastle

Boring watching the racing with no bet on, and can't even see Exeter. Had a look at KIND REVIEW in this Class 3 6f race. He's a multiple course winner, including a course and distance victory last October, albeit a couple of grades lower. Has won a few races at the course this year at a furlong shorter when making all. This tactic hasn't always worked here over the minimum trip, but, tackling 6fs at the course, I think he'll give a decent account, as I'm fairly sure he'll be held up to get the trip. Plenty of good horses in this, but he has won off a similar mark at Redcar in May. Tracy Waggott is one of the top trainers here too. PP go 20/1 and he could be worth a small win bet here...

Ey up!! A 1/50 shot going 2.30 Yarmouth in a 5 horse race - make that 1/40 now 😂

5/1 was a nice price on Dutch Schaefer; that's if ya fancied her 😭

SonOfGoat

3.25 Newcastle, Canonized. Horse is around 6/4. Should win the race handily enough here in my opinion.

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042601#Comment_118042601

if... we weren't distracted by bigger priced runners (typical) Hot Bell was there not too far either.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042964#Comment_118042964

Dutch Schaefer surely looked value 'after the fact' 😂, and a more discerning punter might have had her as a 3/1 shot 😊 Looked the value bet in retrospect...'Value' or not, I just couldn't have her in that race unfortunately, and only a tad disappointed I didn't back her 😴 Hot Bell rewarded each way backers, who would have made a slight profit - and plenty got the value on her, backing her from 8s into 13/2 on the show!

Will pretend I'm on the bottom 11 of the betting ew in this delayed 4.05 GP, and see if I can make a pretend profit !

^^^^^^^

That would have been 22 smallish units down the swannee 😂

Going from rubbish to rubbisher... Just one winner that's all I ask!

j@utis

It's one of those days. I had two in my notebook, didn't back neither, both came placed, one of 22/1 😅

Now go solve Kempton 20:00. Hugh Taylor from ATR thinks that Loving Dash is gonna give her trainer second win at Kempton this year 🤣 and I'm looking at longer prices again - Night Hunter started as odds on favorite twice before and is quite unexposed yet.

A forlorn walk to shoppe to pick up a mere 25% of total outlay, with the scraps from about 3 shortish priced placers...

Not looking beyond obvious, I went for DIAMOND BAY in the 8.00 at Kempton @ 10/3.. Could have got 15/4 at the time if I ventured down to PP, but didn't have phone to check prices 😆 . Is a C & D winner, has won his last three, drawn in 6 which looks good, as he likes to race prominent, but not too much pace on his inside. He might even get a rails sit 😊

2nd - I wouldn't have backed that winner anyway from the 11 box, if I even looked at him.. 😊

Will just watch the last race. I think ARRANGE @ 11s can shape better than lto at Epsom when she ran wide and keen. I'd be happy to back her ew at the prices if I wasn't so lazy or depressed to leave the hoose for the 5 minute perambulation 😂😂 Gwan Jason Watson... I'll roar (within reason - think of the neighbours 😊) ya home regardless....!!

^^^

16s now... If she were that price 10 mins ago, I woulda been swayed to venture....

I roared (in a muted fashion) Jason Watson home, even though I knew he was never getting there... A good 2nd - Arrange "Lost nothing in defeat" 😅