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Sunday 17th October 2021

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  • 16-10-2021 6:31pm
    #1
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭


    3.30 Sedgefield Durham National 3m. 5f. 48yds.

    A couple of picks in this... and *one potential longshot. Using 'strikethrough' instead of underline, as the latter option is no longer available on here...

    Some thoughts on the rest:

    The current jolly Hewick, from Shark's yard, has never raced beyond 3m. (well, bar twice at Killarney at about 3m. 1f. - one over the sticks, and the most recent in a chase 2 months ago) , has only had the 4 chase runs in his lifetime (most of them good tbf) , plus, he's only 6 and shoulders topweight here. The trainer's not sending him over for no reason, and he'll surely have his supporters, but I'm hoping that this will be a bridge too far for Hewick at this stage of his career.

    Montanna looks opposable too at the prices, even though he's a recent course winner.

    Classic Escape appears to want softer ground (going is good atm, and will hope the rain stays away - it didn't today at Ascot 😢 😅). His trainer Richard Newland has won this race multiple times, and if it's soft come race time, he could be challenging for favouritism. Think he'll be staying on strongly at business end if there's give in the underfoot conditions..

    Silva Eclipse ran well at the course 2 runs back, when winning over shorter in a Class lower, but didn't build on that performance over a similar trip lto at Haydock in a Class 2. Am hoping that the race will be too hot for Sue Smith's grey, but wouldn't be surprised should he prevail.

    I think the trip will stretch Manwell.

    Last year's 16/1 winner Red Giant won by making all, but hasn't done much in lesser races since, plus there's no guarantee he'll get his own way up front this time.

    And there's surely no way *YOUNG TURK has much to offer as regards making the frame here. Only if it comes up soft, and only if he tries (can't know that in advance though 😤) to make all, could a case be made for this fellah.. *Might give him a speculative each way euro yet... PP go 100/1 , and I think he's worth a shilling ew at them odds..

    Which leaves:

    BRIAN BORANHA 13/2 PP ew 365 are quoting 12s - priced up with plenty, but no one else goes bigger than 7s.. Maybe they know it's gonna rain 😋

    A previous winner of this in 2018, a fourth in it the next year, and third last year. He could be laid out for this.. Is still relatively young at ten, and still retains plenty of ability, given that he came third when last seen back in March, over 3fs shorter, at the course. Not as highly rated as he used to be, and only carries 10-6. Will be only his third start this season, so I'm feeling his trainer is minding him at this stage of his career, in the hopes of a big run. Would surely be a popular winner 😁

    BAFANA BLUE 10/1 gen ew

    A multiple chase winner at 3 miles and above. Hasn't won at quite as far as the race distance, but has been placed a few times at marathon trips. He came 6th lto in the same grade as today in a race about 5fs shorter at Perth, and seemed to be staying on at the end. Can potentially lead, and it's mainly his low weight of 10-2 that makes him the second, and less confident ew hopeful here. If it does come soft at Sedgefield tomorrow (rain is promised) this one will probably supersede Brian Boranha as the more confident pick....

    So two somewhat hopeful (at this stage anyway) picks, and a speculative go on the outsider!

    😊 Gluck



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