Tuesday 12 October 2021

A tricky day and no major fancies. A few hopeful ones.

1.45 Punchestown

Quite a few in this that look to have decent ew chances.. Most of the five or so that are in single figures that I like (bar the top two in the betting) are either; probably not guaranteed to stay the 3m (or about 20yds less) trip, or don't look to have serious winning claims, although they do look as if they're capable of finishing in the top 6 or seven. So am happy to draw a line through them.

Decided to go for an outsider from the in-form John Ryan yard in the shape of FORT WILLIAM 33/1. This 6yr old is a bit of a Hail Mary pick, in that most of his hurdles' outings recently have been very poor. The reason I'm going for him, is that, he's had 4 chase outings to date (all moderate at best, but generally poor) without troubling the judge; but none of them have been on decent ground, or on trips as far as today's, and that's what I'm hanging my hat on; as well as the fact that he has won (only one of his career to date) over the sticks at Clonmel in May on good ground, plus, he has youth on his side. Bottom line is I'm counting on an extended trip over the larger obstacles on a sound surface for him to go well. His stablemate FATHER JED (and current 4/1 2nd fav) does have obvious winning claims, and I slightly prefer him to the current fav First Touch (another with solid winning chances, although his win lto was over hurdles) who's generally a 5/2 shot. At about 4/1 FATHER JED may be worth a win here also.

Leicester 2.40

Had a look at this 2yr old nursery, as I figure I might be able to catch a decent priced winner in this tricky affair. It's over a mile and the current going is soft. Have narrowed it down to three, and one I will go ew on (maybe?), and win on the other 2. The two I will go win on are MIDGETONAMISSION 9/2, and GILBERT 8/1. Am going for these win because they both ran over 7f lto on soft in the same race at Brighton and they weren't far away. No guarantees they'll stay the extra furlong, but are in with a chance nonetheless. My ew pick CAPLA FEVER @ 9/2 is unfortunately a lot shorter than what she was on the probable sp (she's quoted at 12s under the racecard 😓), and I was hoping that she'd be a lot bigger owing to her poor form in her 3 runs to date. I thought I had found one 'at a price' 😁 , but it doesn't look that way. I will give her a chance here based on it being her first run in a handicap, and her first go on soft, and, being by Fast Company, she should appreciate the underfoot conditions. At the time of writing, I don't know for sure what price she'll be come 'shop opening time' , and I may just back her win only. Maybe a combination tricast as well in this, but Willie Haggas' Hurry Up Hedley 11/4 gen could be the fly in the ointment.

1.38 Hereford

One I won't be doing as its a lay recommendation, and that's HONNEUR DAJONC, who's currently 1/5 with most layers. His form is pretty poor, although he has ran in a couple (of his three in total) of better quality races than today's. Couldn't be having him at the prices. Worth a lay at 1/3 ,2/7 or 1/4 imo (that's assuming he doesn't shorten in the betting later on) as he's just way too short in my opinion at his current price, and has done nothing to justify his prohibitive price. Only 3 others to beat, but Brandy Cove is only having his first go over hurdles (and 2nd career race in total) , and Baladio is having her first tilt in the NH sphere, but she has decent form (without winning) on the flat. She seems to stay 1m 6f on good to firm, so will give her chances today over the sticks at this approx 2 1/2m trip.

☺️

^^^^^^

Went down the shop and did Fort William @ 25s 5 places / Father Jed win @ 5/1 in the 1.45... In the 2.40 I did Capla Fever ew @ 7s (that one drifted a bit, even if she didn't go out as far as I liked... An open and very hard to solve race, so price is middling), and wins on Midgetonamission and Gilbert @ 7/2 & 9/1 (plus a v small combi tricast).. Not on Betfair, so no opportunity to lay that shorty at Hereford unfortunately (generally a 1/4 shot now, but still worth a lay go at 1/3 or shorter imo).

Gluck.. Don't think I'll find any more punting propositions today..

FiftyP

Sure why not. Talking absolute bullshit, half pissed by noon and wondering if I'll make it to my burger and chips with gravy later with more beer and wine in my way (never mind the Ritmeesters)

• 1.45 Doldido 9/1 ew 4pl .25

Others with stronger claims but most likely to place and take advantage if others cock up

• 2.20 Sea Sessions - 11/1 ew 3pl .2 - Bloody stupid to be betting on the madness of a 3yo race without insider knowledge but I was revved up after looking at the cards the As the RP says, reliable on the flat, and the trainer seems to have decent form with starting horses out over hurdles
• 2.55 Koshari 5/2 win
• Drop back in trip which is counter intuitive at the age. Either a training race to see about speed or a roll of the dice, maybe both. With Jesse Evans gone it makes sense
• 4.05 Anno Maximo 20/1 ew 4pl .25
• Can’t see it winning but has showed improvement and is a young horse. Carrying **** all and jockey gets thereabouts with long-ish odds horses if never quite nailing it.
• 4.05 Yolong Voice - 11/1 into 5/1. Think it's a good bet but the odds are fecking stupid coming in almost twice the way. I'll decide later
• An absolute mess of a race, horses protecting their handicap have to count. Others with form all over the place and this isn’t a big prize. Ground distance and claimer seem to suit this

10p Super Yankee

Cape Gentleman (Might have a bet on this individually before the off)

Doldido

Koshari

Quantum Realm (Saw it declared for a less competitive race on Sunday, would have got a much better price, owner/trainer obviously being smart)

Yulong Voice

FiftyP

Ruby confirmed my instinct to win a whole €1.86 from my €1 bet on Cape Gentleman. And Get my 10p on in the SY up to 30p. What a flier!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118008882#Comment_118008882

😁 Cape Gentleman... Ruby must have fancied Ballyadam so!

FiftyP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118008944#Comment_118008944

No. Spotted him down in the parade ring. Said he was unsettled. I don't know how he'd know he'd fall at the first but it was easy enough for Cape Gentleman.

FiftyP

I'm going for Christmas Jumper at half stakes in the last (before the bumper). I'm drunk and angry and just want a ucking win after I bet a bet on 1 500/1 that was a pacemaker in Our Patron Saint.

FiftyP

I have no clue what I'm doing in this 4.05. Can't even see colours. Either way I'm either fucked or well in.

Whatever happens I want a chips and a kebab but I'll settle for an e/w burger.

FiftyP

Not a bad day. My e/ws came in, covered my multis which is better than I'd been doing before.

Just half to turn the oven on now and roast some chips.

FiftyP

Bingo Queen, betting on bumpers... I'm as a fart. Going wild! 11/1 ew 3 pl 0.2.

Edit: I love the name, female owner, filly, unraced... Absolute beauty!

Weepy

7.00 rhinoplasty 9/2

No joy today..

☺️Might be inspired after I watch Barney Curley: The Man Who Beat The Bookies at 10.20 on RTE2 . Hope it's not a repeat.. A few of these type documentaries have been done before.

^^^

Will prob watch it 0n RTÉ+2 at 11.20 2nite.. good snooker (poor quality tho 😁) match ongoing atm on Eurosport.... Really hope I haven't seen that docco before..