Long-range forecasts for winter 2021-2022

M.T. Cranium

I thought it might be interesting to gather any and all long-range forecasts (for Ireland) covering the winter of 2021-2022. That would be the period from 1 Dec 2021 to 28 Feb 2022, but November and March outlooks can be included.

In my own case, still working on an outlook, should have one ready to post within a week or so.

If you do post a forecast, let us know anything you can about the reasoning or methodology. You may be just reporting a long-range forecast from another source, if so, mention where you came across the forecast. Any forecast meant to apply to Britain can probably be included but see if there is any obvious modification that might apply to Ireland.

The three main LRF techniques that seem to be commonly in use are these:

-- teleconnections, a study of certain global or regional parameters, and how those have correlated with Irish weather in the past;

-- analogue techniques, which broadly speaking include the above, but can be more limited to data analysis for just the local or regional data;

-- model extensions, based on experimental monthly- or seasonal- scale output of global models.

In my own case, I attempt to keep files on index values of numerous parameters that I believe may be part of the natural variability of the atmosphere, and update these as the research (sometimes) uncovers new categories. This has provided somewhat of an improvement over random forecast output although some seasonal forecasts have performed better than others. It remains a work in progress and it remains elusive to prove that these index values are the main component of the variability, or just a portion.

There is also the ongoing trend of milder winters but in statistical terms the increase is only about 10% of the standard deviation so it is hardly overwhelming variability to the extent that we might as well just say "milder than last winter" each winter.

pauldry

Think the days of Winters like 2010 are nearly gone. This year I'm trying to decide stormy wet or dry?

I'd say it will be wet and windy this side of Christmas after a benign enough October. There may be some very stormy periods but short lived however rain cloud and mild nights will be plenty.

Next year a short cold spell for January and quiter weather. However milder at times too. I think the rest of Winter 2022 will be mild and very little snow apart from one cold week again sometime in February or March. I think frosts are going to be rare this Winter apart from midlands where -3c will be possible...

.and Markree

Winter 2021/22

Rainfall slightly above normal

Temperatures well above normal

Wind normal

Snow below

Frost below

Cloud well above

Sun 80 percent

Danno

I think with the meandering jet stream that a cold-mild-cold rollercoaster is on the cards, but rather than a zonal flow, we'll see more blocking with occasional topplers coming through.

Rainfall below average

Temperatures below average with a few notable mild spells

Wind slightly below average

Snow slightly above average (frequency rather than amounts)

Frost well above average

Sunshine well above average - possibly record breaking levels.

M.T. Cranium

I could see either of those working out and they aren't totally different outcomes by any means.

My own guess is maybe a bit closer to Pauldry than Danno above, but has elements of both included. I believe it will start out quite mild and perhaps relatively dry although with enough rain and wind at times to resemble a normal (recent) December into early January. There could be a colder spell from about mid-January to early February, but when this was the timing in 2012 the cold stayed largely to the east of Ireland. If it does expand enough to include Ireland then there could be one or two decent snowfalls. Then it seems likely to turn milder for much of February.

There seems to be potential for a severe winter in eastern North America and that often correlates with mild southwest flow patterns on this (or I should say your) side of the Atlantic. Even back in the era when cold winters were more frequent, this happened in years like 1875 and 1899. More recently it happened in 1934 and 2015 too. So there is perhaps some potential for this to turn out to be a mild to very mild winter with very little signs of cold, but being an optimist I will go for an outcome with at least some significant cold spells.

Oneiric 3

La Nina setting up the last few weeks:

Which has little statistical impact on Ireland. Does help (normally) to increase the power of the N. Pacific polar jet which can, as M.T notes, bring colder shots into the eastern US, but given that huge warm (and increasingly so) anomaly in the N. Pacific, I'd not bank too much on that either.

My prediction:

December. Mild and dry and largely frost free.

January: Mild and dry and largely frost free.

December: Mild and dry and largely frost free.

Reasoning? We are stuck in a pattern that is constantly repeating itself. Warm high pressure systems that develop rapidly and with unnerving ease close to and over Ireland and I think this pattern will continue until at least next summer.

Rebelbrowser

Just out of curiosity, I went through the CFS just now out to mid March. No real notable cold but not a particularly mild winter either. The coldest spells (all unexciting) were around 14 Jan, 26 Jan and mid/late Feb. Mid Jan the best with a toppler turning into a little bit of an easterly but temps barely getting to -6/-8s......

Cork2021

So from what I’m seeing here is we’ll definitely end up with a storm Emma situation this winter! 😂😂😂

M.T. Cranium

Well that did come at the end of a rather bland winter with a steady downturn in temperatures in late February, a three-day cold spell with lots of snow, and another brief cold spell about two weeks later with limited snow. Long-range forecasting is at a rather early stage of development and is more likely to catch overall trends than very specific events that may not have much persistence. A more spectacular change in the circulation that lasts for weeks, as in late 2010, might be somewhat easier to detect.

About that warm pool in the north Pacific, its influence is going to depend on the wave shaping -- if we get a shallow trough east of the Rockies and a lot of Pacific air flowing in, then cold shots will be very brief in the east, but it there's a larger amplitude wave pattern with the trough a bit further east than that, a lot of cold air can escape the arctic while milder Pacific air gets directed further north so that places like the Yukon and Northwest Territories get anomalous warmth. That's a fairly frequent La Nina outcome. The correlation with downstream weather for Europe is very weak as Oneiric3 noted.

pauldry

Ya I'd say until 2022 we won't see cold shots too much here until its supposed to be Spring it will probably be Winter then and be 15c in December

Gonzo

I'm not expecting this winter to be any different than most winters. Mostly mild or very mild particularly around Christmas and during February. We have generally been on a significantly warmer than average cycle since February 2021 with the exception of April and May. This is turning into a warmer than average Autumn and I expect this to continue into the winter, just more unsettled with plenty of south-westerlies along with some cooler north-westerlies. Best chance of cold probably in January and again in March when winter is over.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118013705#Comment_118013705

Ya Christmas will be mild. It’s a rule at this stage! Wouldn’t be so sure about February though.

Anyway, what will be will be.

pauldry

Ya can't say what will be will be in a weather forecasting forum you've got to speculate!!

Lucreto

I am slightly more optimistic of a colder winter. After 2018 snow we had mild Winters but last winter was slightly cooler with more frosts.

Also a decent cold snap happened either the winter before or after a heat wave. We had one of these this year. I also see the effects of the solar minimum this year.

M.T. Cranium

Bumping this thread as there was a question relating to long-range forecasts in the main winter discussion thread. My own outlook has not changed much and I continue to be somewhat optimistic that we will see one decent wintry episode from blocking high pressure over central Europe or southern Scandinavia but question remains how strong the impact will be this far west. The dry November is overall a positive sign too. But there will probably be some mild or even very mild spells in the winter too, so it may be the case that one decent wintry spell and a few minor cold spells will be about the best we can get.

As we are getting closer to the actual winter season now, I hope to see a few other forecasts added to those already posted.

lapua20grain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158947#Comment_118158947

Have you already done your winter outlook? I haven't seen it if you have

lapua20grain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118159441#Comment_118159441

Never mind I've just seen it in the winter thread

M.T. Cranium

Extreme autumn storms have developed on west coast of Canada, best analogue turns out to be Nov 1981. ... GFS currently showing considerably more winter potential than recent runs too.

Think I will need to adjust my slow timetable towards moderate optimism, and go a bit more bullish on decent winter synoptics as early as end of the month into December.

Would say be prepared for outbreaks of severe cold and snow at any point and this could be the best winter since 2010-2011 (which while epic for the first half had very little additional winter after New Years, just the odd cold day). It may not quite live up to Dec 2010 but could stretch out further and then of course Jan 1982 was probably at least equal to Dec 2010 in terms of snowstorm delivery.

Hoping the winter weather fanciers will get lucky this time. Could be a bit of a wild ride in contrast to the bland weather at present.

M.T. Cranium

There was some talk about a winter forecast contest thread, but I think this thread should be enough of a vehicle for anyone who wants to post any specific ideas about the coming winter, it should be pretty evident from outcomes which forecasts are better or worse.

I feel optimistic that some interesting weather patterns lie ahead, this year has been rather variable in general with (by modern standards) a fairly good blend of warm and cold, so with no really strong signals of change, no reason to suppose this won't continue into the winter season ahead. Watch for high energy peaks to develop around the week before Christmas and a general downward trend in temperatures to follow.

It may still be largely a question of how far west blocking influences can extend.

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240877#Comment_118240877

Would you mind putting your winter forecast in its own separate thread please MT? I believe you’ve published it somewhere here but I’m damned if I can find it. It would be nice to have a dedicated thread for these long term forecasts from MT please Mods.