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Accurate rain forecast for Dublin, next 10 hrs

  • 06-10-2021 2:25pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭ MrCostington


    Hi, I got a classic car back in Jan last year, which I don't like to use in the rain if possible. So, before leaving for work I check the forecast for rain from about 9am to 6pm. I use the results Google provides if you search "dublin weather", seems to be from weather.com and also yr.no.

    Throughout 2020 these seemed very accurate, I hardly ever got count out. However, this year, they seem to have gone to the dogs. For example, I left home at 10 this morning, searched for East Wall (my work) and I think it said under 20% chance of rain. YR said zero mm all day. Just over 2 hours later it's raining, think it just stopped now.

    This has happened many times this year, and on the flip side, on many days I've not taken the car into work as rain was promised, yet it was bone dry all day.

    Any other services that will give good results for a specific part of Dublin in a max 10 hr window?



Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    There's no need for an app. If you watched the RTÉ weather last night you would have seen that rain was spreading up from the south during the morning and would reach Dublin in the afternoon. Apps are correct more often than not, but they're just a point forecast based on interpolation (guesswork) between nearby model gridpoints. Literal reliance on their output is not a good idea, depending on the weather setup. It's always best to check a the forecast from Met Éireann forecasters, as their job is to use their experience to interpret output from a number of models, decide which one is more likely and then add their own local knowledge to modify the forecast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    me are a joke ,2 weeks ago they gave sun ,mon and tue dry .rest of week very wet down here in Kerry .In fact sun,mon and tuesday were very wet and the rest of week no rain fell caught out alot of lads with 2nd/3rd cut silage as they cut down on the previous saturday to gather up on the sun,mon,tuesday



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    There text forecast online is often quite different to the graphic based forecast on the same platform and the majority of the time the text forecast is the one that is either correct or else more accurate. This is because the text forecast is written by a human. The graphical forecast is just another computer model like the weather.com and yr.no ones and have no human input to account for regional variations and inherent issues with purely computer based forecasts. I think weather.com uses the GFS model, not sure about yr.no. The Met Eireann graphical forecast uses HARMONIE and ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction models.

    Long story short is that the TV forecast and the text forecast on met.ie should be used as often as possible. The computer generated graphic models should be used with a pinch of salt as a last resort......I rarely trust them.....don't use them either except sometimes for a laugh with the forecasts that it often shows.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭ MrCostington


    Thanks, do you have a link for the text forecast? I'm not really sure what you mean by that.

    I don't think I'll look at the TV for this as I don't want to be tied down to having to look at 9pm or whatever. And in any case, I just want to check in the morning before I leave home



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