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Sunday 22nd August

  • 22-08-2021 9:50am
    Registered Users Posts: 212 ✭✭ FiftyP

     I’m even more useless at flat racing than I am at jumps racing, but I need something to distract me so I thought, “Why not Naas?”


    1:25 Pepper Streak 5/1 win

    Neo Soul for me is deserved favourite, but not for the price being offered. Pepper Streak could improve after her debut, a not to be sneezed at 4th of 7, with some issues in the race, and finishing out with more determination an OK horse on the first start, already beaten, might have shown. I think Ernest Rutherford who came fourth behind Pepper Streak has more improvement, I’m just not sure it’s quick improvement.

    2:00 Vidala ew 66/1 2 places .25

    Had Bantry in this, I thought the pedigree was strong, with proven winners from the Sire. He was pulled because of the ground, so maybe they’re not trying to sour him on his first race, albeit I don’t know why that couldn’t be seen yesterday. I might keep an eye out for him in the future.

    I think Gaire Os Ard is deserved favourite, then hard to split Thunder Eclipse and Doitforandrew. There’s three horses that have all a right to win, albeit I think there’s a reason they’ve all been unable to win. The rest of the horses I think are either poor, or just haven’t been raced, except for the least favoured horse at 66/1 in Vidala who might still not be figured out. A funny ol’ gamble on what looks to me like a poor race, but I’ve convinced myself into taking Vidala out of obstinance after Bantry pulled out..

    2:30 Claras Approach ew 11/1 3 places .25

    Drifted over night, but came back in this morning. I don’t know if that’s eejits like my afraid to jump on overnight prices or other eejits like me looking for some proof in the market. I think the big difference here for me is how close she was in her last race, stumbling. And nothing else really impressed me. I think the market reflects how poor this race is, especially compared to the next in the division. Hopefully the ground, and draw, will suit.

    3:00 Myrcella 13/2 win

    Another I didn’t want to jump on overnight. There’s more horses to make a race in this one, I feel, but the other horses all have flaws in their form, whether it’s ground or distance. For me this distance is right for her, after getting it wrong a lot, and the ground will suit.

    3:30 Iva Batt ew 14/1 3 places .25

    She’s run in some races with decent prize money, and although not being ahead, hasn’t been too far behind. Combine that with winning on similar ground (albeit at a furlong less) I’m thinking today might be right for her.

    4:05 Torn ew 12/1 3 places .2

    Another unraced horse, which for some reason I’m going for today when normally I’d shy away. Maybe it’s just the time of the year I think is right for horses to be raced. The two favourites I can’t separate, but between them and Torn I can’t make up much. I’m hoping the higher draw favours on the course, because that is a factor in this race, with the favourites lower and in the middle. A claim for the jockey also seems to me to say they’re targeting this one with every advantage they can get.

    4:40 Jo March 7/2 win (is how it stands without a bet at the moment)

    Absolutely crucified on this one. It was 10/1 overnight, into 9/2 now. I don’t know why it was so high overnight, and is so low now. For me it should be bordering on an e/w bet, will you take the win for the payout, or hedge with an e/w accepting anything could happen. Especially with such a big field. She’s another horse today where I think the results and form in distances don’t quite match up. Especially if you read the notes. The extra 2 furlongs, and slightly heavier ground should play to her, my concern is whether there’s a horse she can run in behind, take the pace from, and wait until late.

    I’ve not bet on this one. I will take a higher price, because I really don’t think the market can keep chasing this one down. Not with such a large field. And if my thinking is right (unlikely) I don’t see how it supports her being a favourite. Lorse Erskine is the other horse (at a long price) I’d look at. All over the place in form, over hurdles and on the flat, but has the ability (proven) to win. 50/1 overnight was a great price. 22/1 might still be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,002 ✭✭✭ leffesem

    Great write up. Good luck with the rest of your picks Fifty

    "there aint no forgettin" - the outlaw Josey Wales

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,002 ✭✭✭ leffesem

    Very nice that Claras Approach in the 2.30 there 😊 Wins like an odds on shot at 18/1 !!

    "there aint no forgettin" - the outlaw Josey Wales

  • Registered Users Posts: 212 ✭✭ FiftyP

    And it's nice that I've got BOG so got the 18/1. (If I do this again that won't be long lasting.)

    Now I have an e/w Yankee live with Clara's Approach as the first, my next three selections thrown in, and I have Jo March as the final. It's for literally the minimum I could stake, so I'm not expecting much. Although getting something out of my first ever Yankee might lead me down a dangerous path! 😮

    The only other thing to add is I have a single on Jo March at 9/2.

    All that being said, that beauty from Clara's Approach has me in profit, I think, no matter what. And the no matter what will be a very disappointing day after that. I'm just not that lucky.

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,002 ✭✭✭ leffesem

    Must be the extra 2fs, as well as the ground, that's accounted for the plunge on this McManus jolly Jo March here....

    "there aint no forgettin" - the outlaw Josey Wales

  • Registered Users Posts: 212 ✭✭ FiftyP

    I should have listened to my instincts. I knew she was a borderline e/w horse which proved correct in the end (I'm often wrong, in fairness though.) If I thought 10/1 was a good price, and 8/1 my price, and the bookies honest price for money was somewhere 6/1-ish, then I was just putting my faith in the money that came on (and came on early morning.)

    Also, and far from a whinge, as I don't think a material difference could be made between placing/winning, but I think the jockey had a lot of questions asked of him and he didn't get them all right. He didn't have the best stall, got stuck a little too far behind, with too much ground to make up, then when he turned the bend he went all the way to the stand side rail instead of sticking more to the middle. It could have made for a more nailbiting finish but I don't think it'd have made a difference. Otherwise he battled and lead the horse really well. Not a "bad ride" just not a "perfect ride" which is always a lot to ask for. From this idiots perspective it was a nice race, and I think it was ran really well in general.

    Finally, and it's definitely after coming from my first day of profit on the flat, but it was really enjoyable to watch. I'm still not sold on sprints on a straight track, but for once it seemed like there was a bit of order to what was happening. Like I had some insight. I think part of it is I was turned off by plummy brits watching ascot with my granny as a kid. I'm very much a jeans and a casual top kind of person, I don't want to dress up to go to the races, I just want to be relaxed and enjoy a few drinks, a few bets, and the horse racing, and the Naas meet gave off far more of that vibe than what I'd seen previously.

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