Friday 16 July

Had a quick look at tomorrow's racing, and I think Four Kingdoms and Lalipour may go well in the 8.30 at Hamilton 2moro... Not sure what prices they'll be though... 7/1 & 14/1 in the probable SPs.... The 13fs is a bit of a marathon trip, and a lot of these have either never raced that far, or over that trip on the current going of good - good to firm... I think eg the 9/4 paper fav Smart Lass would prefer it softer..... The 4/1 paper 2nd fav Battle Angel ran well lto in Tipperary at the end of last month coming 2nd over a similar trip on top of the ground, but she's only 3, and having her first run for new connections..

Lalipour came a decent 4th lto for his most recent connections.. It was an improved run on his 2nd start for Adrian Nicholls when he was staying on over a furlong shorter last month... He was well supported that day too, and is young enough at 5 to have some improvement in him. Four Kingdoms is pretty consistent, and he can go well in this grade at a trip that should suit, as well as the going.

https://boards.ie/discussion/2058198863/friday-16-july

Hello me... I will reply to you to see If I can 'Follow Thread' 😊

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117613298#Comment_117613298

Nope - that didn't work. 2 Bad 😑

https://boards.ie/discussion/2058198863/friday-16-july

Four Kingdoms an 11/2 shot .... Lalipour a non runner.... The ex Irish Battle Angel is a solid 3/1 shot early doors, so must be well fancied.... Think Four Kingdoms is good for a place at least at an ew bet to naught..

^^^

Only 2 places now with another nr Cheese And Wine reducing the field to 7.

5.20 Nottingham

An open race here with 4 places available, and have gone for that amount ew.

Fashion Free @ 22/1. This 4yr old filly needs to break better than previous outings, but went close enough 2 goes back at Yarmouth, and is a big price here. Hopeful one this.

Scoffsman isn't a massive price at 9/1, and is running off the back of an absence. He can go well after a break, so that's not a massive concern. Is gone to Mark Loughnane's and is having his first run for him, after previously having been with Kevin Frost. He goes well over a mile on good, as shown in two races in May and June of 2019. A bit to take on trust for numerous reasons; not least the fact that his (most recent) run at Wolves last Sept was his first run in close to a year. 9 or 10/1 is just about fair, and certainly doesn't look overpriced at those odds. Just seen that he was 20s earlier, and punters perhaps thought that he was well overpriced at those odds.

Temper Trap had a poor outing last time, but that was after an absence. If on form a mile on good ground should suit. Priced at 11/1 seems fine.

Lastly, I will go for Equisential for Hughie Morrison. A lightly raced three year old, who ran well last time at Chepstow, and wears cheekpieces for the first time today. A 5/1 shot, and possibly a bit of juice in them odds.

Had a look at them all in this Class 6 Handicap. The only other one I can make a case for is the 7/2 fav Eevilynn Drew. He can go close imo without winning, and am happy to leave him alone.

8.50 Newmarket

Have gone for three here.

Velvet Vista looks a bit big at 8/1, and should like the trip. Goes on any sort of ground. Won last time out over the 7f trip at Brighton on gd to soft - gd in places, and has won over the same trip at Yarmouth last year on good to firm.

Extrodinair looks a potential winner, and hard to overlook him. Mainly races on the AW, but is a lto winner, and has a favourable turf rating. Will go win on him, as I don't want to not back him. 11/4 doesn't scream value however.

Kick On Kick On is dropping down the weights, but mainly races over 5 or 6fs. Tackles 7 today for the first time I think, but has shown on previous outings over 6f that the step up in trip may suit. Not an overly generous price @ 8/1, but does have the assistance of Buick.

Am happy to overlook the 4/1 lto winner Iva Reflection, as I think he won't be suited by good to firm. Another one I looked at, and was tempted to back is Heptathlete. She is a multiple winner over 7, but those were all on the AW. Was previously trained in France, and didn't show much when tried on turf there. Has never raced on turf in England, but I would have thought that she should be shorter than the 14s available going on her 4 wins over 7 this year at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. One of the ones I sometimes draw a line through, because for whatever reason, the price looks too big 😛.. Makes some sense, without making any sense at all...

9.00 Hamilton.

Hot Diggity Dog is worth a go here at 9/2, or bigger in places. Could have more to offer on his first go in a handicap. Has been supported. A good chance in a trappy 6 runner affair, where Tim Easterby's 4yr old colt Matty Too has seen a lot of support; having been backed into 2/1 joint fav. Happy enough to go with the pick, who can oblige for the in form duo of Keith Dalgleish and Callum Rodriguez.

3.35 Haydock

An open race, and hard to know how it'll pan out. All 6 are having their first run in a handicap over the 5f trip here. The early fav Lucky Shake has drifted like a barge, and Mehdinah has seen plenty of support being backed into the 13/8 favourite, with Just A Claim also being bet, and is now into a 7/2 shot.

Don't know what'll win, but am happy to have a go at GRAND BOBBY @ 20s, as he seems to be improving. He might try and lead, and should see some competition if he chooses to do so. Nonetheless; something has to win, and in a race like this it's worth a speculative punt on this fellow I feel, who's a big price at around 18/20-1.

SonOfGoat

3.45 Nottingham, Possible Man, around 2/1. I've backed this to win and my best of the day.

3.55 Newbury, Flyin Solo, around 7/4. I've backed this to win too and in a double.

SonOfGoat

2 more bets lined up.

4.42 Haydock, Nine Tales, around around 13/8 and getting gambled on, but I'm not liking it here. Expensive horse and heavily backed last time out when second but I get the impression it 'over-performed' LTO and will probably have to settle with 2nd again here. Confident lay bet.

7.40 Klb Dento Des Obeaux 9/2 win

8.10 Kilbeggan I A Connect win

8.20 Newmarket Lovely Breeze 5/2 win , Crazy Luck 9/2 win

Might do a r/f/c as well 😊