Will newer cars now lose much more value over next 10 years?

DebDynamite

Hi all

Anyone any idea what year is the best year of a car for it it to depreciate as little as possible, due to the phasing out of fuel cars in 2030?

For example, at the moment i’m looking to buy a 2017/2018 supermini car (Ford Fiesta / Hyundai i20 or similar). Say I drive it until it’s 10 years old, will it have lost a lot of value by 2028 as fuel cars are being phased out 2 years later?

Would it be better to get maybe a 2014/15/16 instead and save a few thousand, as would that car be worth nearly the same as the 2018/19 by then as fuel cars won’t be popular and but I’ll have a couple of thousand in my back pocket.

Basically will newer cars now have depreciated much quicker in 10 years as they have never done before? Maybe I’m over thinking things though

Buddy Bubs

Put it this way, there's not much difference between the price of a 10 year old and 13 year supermini today, say a 2011v 2008. Both nearly fully depreciated. 80 to 90%.

Looking at maybe 5000 v 3000 euro, ballpark for the exact same car in exact same condition today with newer v older reg plate.

That's a very tight margin to try predict over 10 years with all that can happen in the meantime. I suspect you're wondering about electric v fossil fuels. Some people will still want a small petrol runabout, you just won't be able to buy them new after 2030.
Some taxation policy might distort the market, but we don't know now.
Buy whatever you can comfortably afford now and whatever will be will be.

bazz26

People are not going to just stop driving or buying ICE cars in 2030 unless the government wants to replace every ICE car on the road with a free EV. It will happen in a phased manner over a longer period of time where the choice of new ICE cars will decrease in availability which in turn will trickling down to the second hand market until EVs become the mainstream mode of private transport and remaining ICE cars eventually disappear. When that happens EVs will suffer the same level of normal depreciation and cost of ownership as an ICE car costs today as they are no longer niche or rich man's toy. There might be incentives or disincentives to push the transition along at the same cost to those who cannot afford a new car just like they did back in 2008 with the Co2 tax system but the revenue stream from the motorist will need to continue irrespective of what propels your vehicle.

I would not try to second guess what will happen in 8 years time, just buy the car that suits your needs now. Even in 8 year time a current 3/4 year old average car will be 12 years old so not worth much anyway no matter what powers it.

Toyotafanboi

Yeah, be grand. No matter what you buy new or nearly new now whether it be petrol, diesel, petrol hybrid, diesel hybrid, electric, hydrogen, veg oil or flux capacitation it will be worth SFA in ten years time regardless.

Larbre34

Basically, yes.

Its why new cars are pretty much always a waste of money.

FrankieB29

I'm going to buy a tesla in 3 or 4 years time get one for a great price. Such a waste of money getting a brand new car, any car you get is going to be new to you anyway.

Aim for 3 - 4 year old car as the car depreciation will have gone down by 50% of there value

Atlantic Dawn

The cheap tax effect will keep the prices higher than currently. The great unknown is electric cars, if there's major doubts on what life the battery has left in them at 10 years few will be interested in taking the risk.

kirving

FrankieB29 wrote: »

I'm going to buy a tesla in 3 or 4 years time get one for a great price. Such a waste of money getting a brand new car, any car you get is going to be new to you anyway.

Aim for 3 - 4 year old car as the car depreciation will have gone down by 50% of there value

If there's one car I wouldn't buy without a bumper to bumper manufacturer warranty, it'd be a Tesla.

FrankieB29

kirving wrote: »

If there's one car I wouldn't buy without a bumper to bumper manufacturer warranty, it'd be a Tesla.

After u test drove one completely changed my mind on them each to there own.

Casati

FrankieB29 wrote: »

After u test drove one completely changed my mind on them each to there own.

Hopefully you have a big fund for unexpected repairs if you buy without warranty.

kirving

FrankieB29 wrote: »

After u test drove one completely changed my mind on them each to there own.

Under warranty, Tesla's after sales is regarded as excellent, but it would want to be, their overall reliability is not good to put it very mildly.

purplefields

FrankieB29 wrote: »

I'm going to buy a tesla in 3 or 4 years time get one for a great price. Such a waste of money getting a brand new car, any car you get is going to be new to you anyway.

Aim for 3 - 4 year old car as the car depreciation will have gone down by 50% of there value

If the car is fully depreciated by year 10, would it not be better to get the car new and have the better, new, half of the depreciation curve?

purplefields

purplefields wrote: »

If the car is fully depreciated by year 10, would it not be better to get the car new and have the better, new, half of the depreciation curve?

It's not a straight line.

wonski

In op example 2014-2016 Fiesta would be previous generation so would be much cheaper to buy even now, not sure about i20.

A car that is 5 years old and is still current model on sale will depreciate less than 3 years old out of production model.