Thursday 6th May - Tipperary Jumps

FiftyP

A bit of an odd day in Tipperary. No real money in any races, two Bumpers, a couple of chases, a maiden and some handicap hurdles. For many it's a matter of picking up an off-chance, or maybe adjusting their handicap (not that many can go much lower.) If this were open to the public it'd be a real, "For the day out" kind of day.

Tipperary
4.25 Close Enough 33/1 ew 4 places
Took Close Enough at an extra ew place, and it's obvious the bookies know the score here. The horse going from 50/1 to 33/1 with the extra place. There's a 1/5 favourite running, and a 4/1 so then the rest are about competing for places and that extra place is just a little bit of insurance. 2m3f was just too long for Close Enough, especially in a bumper with a bit more pace, but they've had some decent results over hurdles at 2m, so this is a case of hoping to manage to hit the places for my 25p ew.

4.55 Desert Island 25/1 ew 4 places
This is a case of falling back to the tried and true selecting of "pick a horse with experience on the ground and over the distance." There's other horses with better form, but they've never shown themselves over anything near to 3 miles or on dry ground. Desert Island has done both, sort of. A second to Skyace before Skyace really kicked on. Some other respectable results. Horses finding their running will beat Desert Island, so it's a bet against the field showing their running for the first time.

5.25 Full Of Zandre 15/2 ew 4 places
Going against myself with the distance and ground advice in my previous race. Full of Zandre has some respectable result on similar ground but over longer distances. The guide on each of those was that it didn't have the stamina to really see them out. Add the tongue tie and cheekpieces being applied today and I feel the stable is looking for a good result today. I think you'll get better odds on this (and maybe my next horse) but I don't want to be sitting around all day watching the bookies.

6.00 Blackhillsofdakota 7/1 ew 3 places
A second over 2m6f shows the distance might be needed. Add to that some good performances on faster ground and this is an ok selection, hoping this time it comes in. Neither this or Full of Zandre will make much on their ew terms but if they race to their ability it's a bit of insurance.

SonOfGoat

Not a bad day's racing. Few decent opportunities to make a few bob in my opinion.

2.55 Huntingdon, Buttsbury Lady. Horse is around 2/1 on the exchange. But I can't see it winning. The horse is getting backed but no matter how hard I look I can't make a case for it winning. Confident lay bet

3.05 Worcester, Glimpse Of Gala. Horse is around 11/10 on the exchange. I have it priced up a lot bigger and I can't see it winning. My strongest bet of the day and it's a lay bet. I'll be very surprised if Glimpse Of Gala wins the race

Few more lined up I'll write in shortly

SonOfGoat

3.15 Chester, Japan, priced around 2/1 and I think it's great value. If you take the other joint fav out it's some price for Japan. Just finished backing it to win.

4.15 Chester, Zoltan Star. Short @ around 4/5 but I think it's nailed on for the win. Backed to win and in a double with Japan.

That's me done for the day.

SonOfGoat

Gutted over Zoltan star, would have been a nice double but not too bad of a day.

I didn't want to over do it with bets today but in the 5.20 - Arion Fox, I'm not liking it at all. I had it down as a potential lay bet this morning. There is a heavy gamble on it currently but that suits me to lay it now. 6/5 and getting hammered by some people but I can't see it winning. I had it priced up @ around 9/2 today. Very very confident lay bet. That's it.

UrbanFret

So Japan finally finds his level, group 3 or listed. wont stop Aidan hyping him up again I suppose.