Could an Independent Scotland turn violent?

If Scotland achieves it's independence in the near future, is there a prospect that the situation might turn violent?

From my own personal view, Scotland has a large English population and going independent wouldn't change English people from moving to Scotland, living there and applying for jobs. Given it's lack of an official language other than English, independence wouldn't really make much of a difference to the average person.

In fact, independence could actually do damage to the country, for instance Scottish people maybe inclined to openly discriminate against English people in education, housing, employment etc.

The success attributed to Ireland's break from the union was the Irish language. The Irish language, in it's official capacity, created an environment where Irish people could be favored on the grounds that they spoke the native language. In a way it was positive discrimination.

I don't know if any of you have been to Scotland, but the English occupy a large number of management positions in the civil service, the police, the army etc. and also their presence is felt in the universities where in some instances, they are the majority.

What would be the reason to deny them these positions in an independent Scotland, from our own experience, being born abroad wouldn't be enough? There would need to be something else. How would they de-anglicize the country, since that would be the whole purpose of leaving the union?

Your thoughts?

deeperlearning

So the Tory party is getting worried?

B2021M

Might the potential source of trouble/violence not be more likely to be sectarianism?

touts

Nope. They sent most of the Scottish lunatic gene pool to Ulster a few hundred years ago.

Seriously though I don't think passions are that strong either way in Scotland. They will argue about it and at times those arguments will become heated but in my experience of the Scots both sides have a much stronger respect for democracy than either side in Northern Ireland. The vote will be accepted with a shrug of the shoulders by the losing side.

Cosmo Kramer

Unless you mean in terms of angry unionist Rangers fans causing trouble in Glasgow (which already happens from time to time anyway) then no.

15+ years living here has taught me that the Scots are a fairly reserved bunch overall. Whatever happens they'll just get on with it and make do.

FWIW my view is that it won't happen in any of our lifetimes. That reserved approach among the majority means that, when it comes down to it, they won't take the risk that's involved in voting for indy.

B2021M

B2021M wrote: »

Might the potential source of trouble/violence not be more likely to be sectarianism?

The english are part of that ethnic divide.

Harry Palmr

The English should hold all those drunk homeless Scots in London hostage to stop this sort of thing!

An independent Scotland is not going to start getting violent on nationality grounds. Like every modern democracy the population is diverse. People from here, there and everywhere. It would be economically and societally destructive to single out the English obviously. Any English or other who don't like an independent Scotland would leave over time so probably a good idea to make it inclusive. See economy.

Mr.Nice Guy

I don't see major violence taking hold but I do think there is the potential for street unrest and disorder if the Tories stubbornly refuse any discussion of a referendum, assuming a mandate is provided in the election on Thursday.

It's a very dangerous game to tell people that there is no democratic basis for them to enact change. We know how that story goes.

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't see major violence taking hold but I do think there is the potential for street unrest and disorder if the Tories stubbornly refuse any discussion of a referendum, assuming a mandate is provided in the election on Thursday.

It's a very dangerous game to tell people that there is no democratic basis for them to enact change. We know how that story goes.

there was street unrest and civil disorder from SNP supporters when they lost in 2014, so I would say violence between Scots with different view points is likely whatever the outcome.

bob mcbob

Aegir wrote: »

there was street unrest and civil disorder from SNP supporters when they lost in 2014, so I would say violence between Scots with different view points is likely whatever the outcome.

Is this the civil disorder you are talking about? From the SNP supporters?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/19/violence-glasgow-scotland-loyalists-attack-independence-supporters

At one point a section of the crowd broke through police lines and marched up the central shopping area of Buchanan Street, chanting the words to Rule Britannia. Some shouted loyalist slogans and racist abuse, and appeared to make Nazi salutes.

bob mcbob

bob mcbob wrote: »

Is this the civil disorder you are talking about? From the SNP supporters?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/19/violence-glasgow-scotland-loyalists-attack-independence-supporters

At one point a section of the crowd broke through police lines and marched up the central shopping area of Buchanan Street, chanting the words to Rule Britannia. Some shouted loyalist slogans and racist abuse, and appeared to make Nazi salutes.

Yes

Six people were arrested amid angry scenes in Glasgow on Friday night as a group of young pro-union supporters clashed with pro-independence supporters who had been gathering in George Square throughout the day.

whoever started it, the chances of violence are pretty high i would say.

Especially when 25% of both sides of the debate are happy to use violence to get their way https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/quarter-of-voters-would-turn-to-violence-to-win-v5bb7lwqf

bob mcbob

Aegir wrote: »

Yes



whoever started it, the chances of violence are pretty high i would say.

Especially when 25% of both sides of the debate are happy to use violence to get their way https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/quarter-of-voters-would-turn-to-violence-to-win-v5bb7lwqf

20 arrests on a Friday night in Glasgow - not normal but nothing remarkable.

Your survey is very convenient - it fits in with a pattern. The same was said about Brexit. If the hardline Brexiteers didn't get their way, there was going to be civil war.

Larbre34

You couldn't rule out some aggro in advance of another very divisive referendum, but a deterioration into wholesale violent factionism? I doubt it.

Xgemone

Xgemone wrote: »

I don't think that in the modern world, the aggressiveness of countries is quickly eliminated, except if the country has nuclear weapons

I am prepared to bet everything I own on there being no nuclear weapons used as a result of a Scottish Independence referendum.

pixelburp

Political violence? No, I think bar inevitable protests with heavy police presence, I can't see a huge upswing in that sort of thing ... outside of the Old Firm, where yes; I could see the frustration of the traditionally unionist support of Rangers boiling over. Not that I expect Celtic supporters to be gracious winners mind you

A yes vote is not going to be a wipeout if it happens, so the question really is: how do you bring along the 40% of Scotland against the vote? Being more specific: how do you placate the hardcore minority of that 40%, those who won't just roll with the new reality coming down the tracks

Jimbob1977

Apart from Quebec, can anyone name a country/territory that voted against its own independence?

Australia monarchy/republic debate excepted.

L1011

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Apart from Quebec, can anyone name a country/territory that voted against its own independence?

Australia monarchy/republic debate excepted.

Loads. New Caledonia quite recently, twice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_New_Caledonian_independence_referendum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Caledonian_independence_referendum

Larbre34

Larbre34 wrote: »

You couldn't rule out some aggro in advance of another very divisive referendum, but a deterioration into wholesale violent factionism? I doubt it.

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the modern Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

Nuclear bases are policed by the Mod Police which is completely separate from the usual constabulary.

saabsaab

Aegir wrote: »

Nuclear bases are policed by the Mod Police which is completely separate from the usual constabulary.

So the nuclear deterrent would be under Scottish control?

Dank Janniels

saabsaab wrote: »

What would happen to the nuclear bases there?

Didnt Ian Og say they could move them to Ulster?!

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

So the nuclear deterrent would be under Scottish control?

They don’t want it.

TheBoyConor

The same way we de-anglicised the Free 26 .

saabsaab

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Didnt Ian Og say they could move them to Ulster?!

So under a UI we would have a nuclear strike capability?

bob mcbob

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland's modern police have far more resources than the Gardai have. I suspect the reason for this is Scotland's sectarian divide. If Scotland went independent, they wouldn't have the same resources they have now. Im sure the cracks would start to appear then.

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

L1011

bob mcbob wrote: »

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

Lower salaries in Scotland. Salaries are far and away the bulk of the Garda budget.

Constable/Garda top-out is €48.7k vs 54.5k; Sergeant 54.5 vs 60.2k and so on; plus there are still multiple allowances here that do not appear to exist in Scotland.

http://www.gra.ie/documents/PayScales.pdf

https://www.scotland.police.uk/about-us/finance/pay-and-grading-structure/

I'd also take a guess that they have less senior grades though.

bob mcbob

bob mcbob wrote: »

I was interested in a comparison of the Garda and police Scotland.

numbers are -

Total size of force
Garda = 14566
PS = 17241

Budget
Garda = 1.952 billion euro
PS = 1.222 billion GPB (1.4 billion euro)

So police Scotland is able to have more officers on a smaller annual budget.

Does the Garda numbers and budget also include border control?

breezy1985

L1011 wrote: »

Lower salaries in Scotland. Salaries are far and away the bulk of the Garda budget.

Constable/Garda top-out is €48.7k vs 54.5k; Sergeant 54.5 vs 60.2k and so on; plus there are still multiple allowances here that do not appear to exist in Scotland.

http://www.gra.ie/documents/PayScales.pdf

https://www.scotland.police.uk/about-us/finance/pay-and-grading-structure/

I'd also take a guess that they have less senior grades though.

UK is a low pay low cost economy compared to Ireland. Pretty much all jobs pay less over there

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

Does the Garda numbers and budget also include border control?

My thought too. AGS as a national force would have roles and responsibilities that Police Scotland as a regional force wouldn't have - border control, must obviously, but also a much bigger intelligence role, and no doubt other things. Plus, of course, the UK forces have access to external specialist facilities and bodies - the National Crime Agency, the specialist units of the Met, the Police Staff College - which are off-budget for the UK forces, but the Irish equivalents would be on-budget for AGS. So direct comparisons need to be treated with a bit of caution.

bob mcbob

Peregrinus wrote: »

My thought too. AGS as a national force would have roles and responsibilities that Police Scotland as a regional force wouldn't have - border control, must obviously, but also a much bigger intelligence role, and no doubt other things. Plus, of course, the UK forces have access to external specialist facilities and bodies - the National Crime Agency, the specialist units of the Met, the Police Staff College - which are off-budget for the UK forces, but the Irish equivalents would be on-budget for AGS. So direct comparisons need to be treated with a bit of caution.

Here are the specialist responsibilities for PS

2.4.1 Border Policing Command
2.4.2 Special Branch
2.4.3 Organised Crime and Counter Terrorism Unit
2.4.4 Major Investigation Teams
2.4.5 National Anti Corruption Unit
2.4.6 National Human Trafficking Unit
2.4.7 National Rape Taskforce
2.4.8 Prison Intelligence Unit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_Scotland

I think the differences maybe down to how policing is done differently in the 2 countries. For example -

the number of police stations are -
Police Scotland = 214
Garda = 564

Ireland more than double which suggests smaller stations with small numbers of Garda in each.

A Dub in Glasgo

Aegir wrote: »

there was street unrest and civil disorder from SNP supporters when they lost in 2014, so I would say violence between Scots with different view points is likely whatever the outcome.

Just spotted this and it is of course a lie. British nationalists/ unionists attacked the pro-independence crowd in George Sq, I know as I was there

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Just spotted this and it is of course a lie. British nationalists/ unionists attacked the pro-independence crowd in George Sq, I know as I was there

You were at the pro remain celebrations?

A Dub in Glasgo

No, the independence supporters massed in George Sq for weeks in the run up to the referendum and then when the result came out, the unionist mob descended on the square to beat the pro-independence supporters out of the square. That is your violence during the referendum and it was the winning side

Jimbob1977

It was effectively the Billy Boys taunting and assaultimg anyone with a saltaire.

I can't fathom how any Scot votes to maintain the Union. They are just a vassal state to the English.

ancapailldorcha

Below standard posts removed along with a response.

TanookiMario

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

It was effectively the Billy Boys taunting and assaultimg anyone with a saltaire.

I can't fathom how any Scot votes to maintain the Union. They are just a vassal state to the English.

Respectfully, from someone who voted yes and would again and who was there at George Square, this is not the entire story.

There was plenty of Yes on Yes violence, arguing and drunken behaviour before trouble between both sides kicked off. The police did a decent job of keeping the two sides seperated in the end.

To state that this was some kind of one-sided thing is factually incorrect. People on both sides were fighting amongst themselves and with each other.

A Dub in Glasgo

TanookiMario wrote: »

Respectfully, from someone who voted yes and would again and who was there at George Square, this is not the entire story.

There was plenty of Yes on Yes violence, arguing and drunken behaviour before trouble between both sides kicked off. The police did a decent job of keeping the two sides seperated in the end.

To state that this was some kind of one-sided thing is factually incorrect. People on both sides were fighting amongst themselves and with each other.

Respectively, that is not the case. The billy boy mob chased the independence supporters out of the square

Your post is the antithesis of fact when it comes to what happened in George Sq

TanookiMario

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Respectively, that is not the case. The billy boy mob chased the independence supporters out of the square

Your post is the antithesis of fact when it comes to what happened in George Sq

As I said, people on both sides were fighting amongst themselves and with each other.

If you want to keep peddling this fantasy about some "billy boy mob" then crack on.

Don't understand why some insist on painting this absolutely false image of Glasgow.

There was trouble at George Square after the last referendum. True.

The Yes side where fighting with each other and there was then some fighting between both sides. Neither side was exactly acting like the good guys but you go right on with your story.

Snickers Man

To answer the OP question: I couldn't see Scotland gain independence WITHOUT violence.

The English/Unionists will try every trick in the book to prevent independence happening, including cynical playing of the "Orange Card" or something similar. No way is Scotland going to be allowed to leave the newly "liberated" UK.

Just not going to happen. Unlike the EU, the British Empire never had an Article 50. You're stuck with it.

Unless.....

Peregrinus

Snickers Man wrote: »

To answer the OP question: I couldn't see Scotland gain independence WITHOUT violence.

The English/Unionists will try every trick in the book to prevent independence happening, including cynical playing of the "Orange Card" or something similar. No way is Scotland going to be allowed to leave the newly "liberated" UK.

Just not going to happen. Unlike the EU, the British Empire never had an Article 50. You're stuck with it.

Unless.....

I wouldn't be so glum. It's true that the British Empire never had an Article 50 - the grant or withholding of independence was always the prerogative of Westminster, and it still is.

And yet, for the past hundred years, everybody who wants out, gets out. There's practically nothing left. And the few colonies that remain, remain because they want to be colonies.

[Except for the British Indian Ocean Territory, where the entire population was forcibly deported to Mauritius, so that the UK could ignore their wishes and interests. But, even for the current Tories, that's not a viable strategy for hanging on to Scotland.]

Sometimes the transition to independence required the use of force - it did in our case, and in a number of other cases over the past century - Kenya, Malaysia, Cyprus. But it always ended badly for the UK. And for the most part they have learned the lesson; regardless of the legal situation, if the people don't want you to stay then sooner or later you have to go, and attempting to resist independence with force will not succeed. I can't think of an occasion in the last 50 years where the UK has used force to resist an independence movement that has enjoyed majority support.

Fr Tod Umptious

Snickers Man wrote: »

To answer the OP question: I couldn't see Scotland gain independence WITHOUT violence.

The English/Unionists will try every trick in the book to prevent independence happening, including cynical playing of the "Orange Card" or something similar. No way is Scotland going to be allowed to leave the newly "liberated" UK.

Just not going to happen. Unlike the EU, the British Empire never had an Article 50. You're stuck with it.

Unless.....

Scotland and Scots were very much a driving force in the British Empire in it's hey day.
They are responsible for a lot of what it did to other nations, they are not some sort of a victim.

Snickers Man

Snickers Man wrote: »

To answer the OP question: I couldn't see Scotland gain independence WITHOUT violence.

The English/Unionists will try every trick in the book to prevent independence happening, including cynical playing of the "Orange Card" or something similar. No way is Scotland going to be allowed to leave the newly "liberated" UK.

Just not going to happen. Unlike the EU, the British Empire never had an Article 50. You're stuck with it.

Unless.....

Tbh I would say last referendum results are a fair reflection of how Scottish people feel about the Union. It also says alot about their national identity too. Some Scots say they are British and Scottish and will openly defend the Union. I would say their attitudes are closely aligned with the attitudes you will find in Northern Ireland rather than the Republic. If there is going to be a threat of violence it will likely come from Unionism in an Independent Scotland.

Pandiculation

I don’t think it would turn violent after leaving. What would concern me a lot more would be if there’s a referendum in favour of leaving and then it’s blocked by the British Government.

That is a situation that could turn into angry protests.

My reading of Scotland though is the unionists are more likely to just adapt or to ensure a pragmatic long term relationship.

While there are some obvious parallels with Ireland a century ago, it’s also a very different situation. Ireland’s independence came out of 19th century oppression, a history of oppression of the majority religious community, anger over land rights and the absolutely huge impact of the experience of the Famine.

Remember when 1916 was kicking off the famine was only 64 years ago. That would be be like us looking back at something that occurred in 1957 from our perspective. It wasn’t ancient history.

I know Scotland has historical parallels with the clearances but it’s now a much longer time ago.

If you contrast that with modern Scotland you’ve an argument that is basically one modern democracy leaving another modern democracy that isn’t granting it adequate representation.

There are strong arguments but there’s nothing like the context of Ireland in 1916.

The UK, as jingoistic as the current government may be, is nothing remotely comparable to the governments of the 1910s. You’re talking about an era when the UK was at peak empire mode and also during WWI. The politics and context are extremely different and I can’t see London responding with paramilitary police, although there is a recent experience of that in Catalonia, but I’m doubtful that you’d see that in the UK.

I also think you’re looking at a balkanisation of the UK, largely driven by a parallel English (not British) nationalism. They occasionally talk the talk of unionism, but the reality is they don’t care about non English politics. So if Scotland leaves, I’m not sure you’ll have that much of a passion to resist their leaving.

So I’m not concerned that you’ll see the levels of anger you saw in Ireland a century ago and I don’t think that you’ll have the levels of tensions that exist in present day Northern Ireland either, as that’s a product of a century ago that’s just never been quite resolved.