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2018 Passat trade-in price in 2 years time

  • 20-04-2021 5:30pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    Thoughts on this folks.

    What could I expect for a trade-in price in 2 years time with approx 75,000 miles on it?

    This is over my budget but would stretch now to get it if I knew I'd get a decent price in 2 years.

    https://www.shaneconnollycars.com/vehicle?id=dYBl


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭ Buddy Bubs


    Murt15 wrote: »
    Thoughts on this folks.

    What could I expect for a trade-in price in 2 years time with approx 75,000 miles on it?

    This is over my budget but would stretch now to get it if I new I'd get a decent price in 2 years.

    https://www.shaneconnollycars.com/vehicle?id=dYBl

    As an estimate I'd say the same dealer might retail that car in 2 years time with an extra 30000 miles at maybe 15 to 16k so you'll be offered 12/13/14k or thereabouts. I'd imagine it will cost you 8k depreciation plus interest to drive it for 2 years.

    My suggestion is that if you are relying on a good trade in on it to be able to afford it now...don't stretch to it. Too many variables. No matter how nice a car it is, Passat could be extremely undesirable in 2 years too with the move to both electric and to suv style well underway and gathering pace.


  • Registered Users Posts: 72,763 ✭✭✭✭ colm_mcm


    That model Passat is out 6 years, so it will be an old model by the time you’re trading back in.
    Look at Passat B7 vs B8 prices as an example.

    That particular one isn’t especially well specced either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    Buddy Bubs wrote: »
    As an estimate I'd say the same dealer might retail that car in 2 years time with an extra 30000 miles at maybe 15 to 16k so you'll be offered 12/13/14k or thereabouts. I'd imagine it will cost you 8k depreciation plus interest to drive it for 2 years.

    My suggestion is that if you are relying on a good trade in on it to be able to afford it now...don't stretch to it. Too many variables. No matter how nice a car it is, Passat could be extremely undesirable in 2 years too with the move to both electric and to suv style well underway and gathering pace.


    Thanks very much for your reply.

    I am going to throw another question back at you now. What would you recommend that would have a depreciation less than the €4000. Could I get an SUV? 3 or 4 year old with a €20k ish budget.

    I would have thought the majority of people would be paying in and around the €4000 per year (€75 per week give or take €10)?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭ Buddy Bubs


    Murt15 wrote: »
    Thanks very much for your reply.

    I am going to throw another question back at you now. What would you recommend that would have a depreciation less than the €4000. Could I get an SUV? 3 or 4 year old with a €20k ish budget.

    I would have thought the majority of people would be paying in and around the €4000 per year (€75 per week give or take €10)?

    What figure are you working towards with the 75 a week? Thats 8k or so over 2 years like I suggested in earlier post.

    Are you looking for 4k depreciation for 2 years for 20,000 outlay? Thats only 10% a year....Closest I could think would be a vw golf. Or Qashqai or something like that.
    But I don't think natural depreciation plus dealer margins could keep anything to 4000 over 2 years. Maybe if you buy private and sell private you could get closer. Bring dealers into the equation and not a hope.
    Most cars are in the ballpark of 50% loss in value over 3 years. Some fare better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    Buddy Bubs wrote: »
    What figure are you working towards with the 75 a week? Thats 8k or so over 2 years like I suggested in earlier post.

    Are you looking for 4k depreciation for 2 years for 20,000 outlay? Thats only 10% a year....Closest I could think would be a vw golf. Or Qashqai or something like that.
    But I don't think natural depreciation plus dealer margins could keep anything to 4000 over 2 years. Maybe if you buy private and sell private you could get closer. Bring dealers into the equation and not a hope.
    Most cars are in the ballpark of 50% loss in value over 3 years. Some fare better.


    Sorry I meant €4000 per year for 2 years so €8000.

    I would be quite happy to be in an around €75 per week for a 3 year old car and keep for 2 years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭ Buddy Bubs


    Murt15 wrote: »
    Sorry I meant €4000 per year for 2 years so €8000.

    That shouldn't be a problem for anything in the 20k range. That's what I suggested in my first post that the Passat might cost you. Give or take 1000 or so either way


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    Buddy Bubs wrote: »
    That shouldn't be a problem for anything in the 20k range. That's what I suggested in my first post that the Passat might cost you. Give or take 1000 or so either way

    Thanks for your thoughts buddy appreciate it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭ Squeaksoutloud


    The spec on that Passat is terrible. I would spend the extra ~€1k and get this model with a much higher spec..Auto Hybrid / pan roof / leather / digital screens / LED interior lighting / alloys and thats only the half of it compared to the one you picked. The value should hold on a hybrid better you would imagine...in fact this car seems great value..nice colour combo too.

    https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/sunroof-ivory-leather-gte-plug-in-electric-hybrid/27781924

    Y2FiZTZjNjRhNTZlYzRiZTA3MzIxNTUxNWZhMTg5ZTFt5d0hleMv7zABNpwOe4qfaHR0cDovL3MzLWV1LXdlc3QtMS5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tL2RvbmVkZWFsLmllLXBob3Rvcy9waG90b18xNzY5MTgyMjN8fHwxMjAweDEyMDB8fHx8fHx8fA==.jpeg

    NjZlMGJjOTMwNTY3ZjVlMmJmNjJiNWQyZmRlN2I2ZjN-bW5Lw2XZvem3WonRyCInaHR0cDovL3MzLWV1LXdlc3QtMS5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tL2RvbmVkZWFsLmllLXBob3Rvcy9waG90b18xNzY5MTgyMjh8fHwxMjAweDEyMDB8fHx8fHx8fA==.jpeg


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    The spec on that Passat is terrible. I would spend the extra ~€1k and get this model with a much higher spec..Auto Hybrid / pan roof / leather / digital screens / LED interior lighting / alloys and thats only the half of it compared to the one you picked. The value should hold on a hybrid better you would imagine...in fact this car seems great value..nice colour combo too.

    https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/sunroof-ivory-leather-gte-plug-in-electric-hybrid/27781924

    Y2FiZTZjNjRhNTZlYzRiZTA3MzIxNTUxNWZhMTg5ZTFt5d0hleMv7zABNpwOe4qfaHR0cDovL3MzLWV1LXdlc3QtMS5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tL2RvbmVkZWFsLmllLXBob3Rvcy9waG90b18xNzY5MTgyMjN8fHwxMjAweDEyMDB8fHx8fHx8fA==.jpeg

    NjZlMGJjOTMwNTY3ZjVlMmJmNjJiNWQyZmRlN2I2ZjN-bW5Lw2XZvem3WonRyCInaHR0cDovL3MzLWV1LXdlc3QtMS5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tL2RvbmVkZWFsLmllLXBob3Rvcy9waG90b18xNzY5MTgyMjh8fHwxMjAweDEyMDB8fHx8fHx8fA==.jpeg

    Class job alright. There wouldn't be many electric charge points were I'm from so not sure if it would be practical. Would you get €16k on a trade-in in 2 years time with another 30k miles done?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,973 ✭✭✭ User1998


    Seems like your getting too worked up out about this potential future trade in value tbh


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,864 ✭✭✭✭ mickdw


    Id say 13 to 14k trade in in 2 years if you buy a nicer one than the one you are considering.
    Id say there are plenty highline irish cars available as vw were pushing them with zero percent pcp on the highlines for a while.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    User1998 wrote: »
    Seems like your getting too worked up out about this potential future trade in value tbh


    You reckon, is this not something worth considering and doing a bit of research when spending quite a bit of money?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,864 ✭✭✭✭ mickdw


    Very hard to predict though so buy the nicest spec and try to buy a car that will still be current model or at least only a facelift off current when selling.
    The passat is around since 2015 so at 8 years will likely be replaced with an all new one circa 2023.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,028 ✭✭✭ Lantus


    Financially stretching yourself for a car you already seem to want to sell in just 2 years seems fruitless?

    What's the thinking? Why not a car that is 5k less and is easier to pay for with less stress over future sell price?


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 22,655 ✭✭✭✭ beertons


    The wife came home with a nice spec 2016 a few weeks ago, with the same mileage as yours for 16,400.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    Lantus wrote: »
    Financially stretching yourself for a car you already seem to want to sell in just 2 years seems fruitless?

    What's the thinking? Why not a car that is 5k less and is easier to pay for with less stress over future sell price?



    My thinking is that the €5k less car is still going to work out the same financially for me.

    €21k car will be worth €13k in 2 years
    €16k car will be worth €8k in 2 years

    Both examples means I'll be out about €75 per week.

    Why keep for 2 years? Well say if I keep it for 3 years I'm still going to be loosing a similar amount over that year. The €21k car after 3 years with higher mileage is only going to get me around €9k now. For me to upgrade at that stage is going to cost me around €12k to get to that level again. If I upgrade after 2 years its only the €8k I need.

    I'm thinking if I pay that extra €5k now as a once off going forward I can get a 3 year old car every 2 years for around €75 per week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,973 ✭✭✭ User1998


    A €16k car will not be worth €8k in 2 years.

    Your theory suggests that a €21k car will depreciate 38% in 2 years, yet the €16k car depreciated 50% in the same 2 years?

    No offence but your pulling these numbers out of thin air and really over thinking this whole future trade in thing

    And then you talk about upgrading your car in 2 years to avoid further depreciation. But the car you upgrade to will depreciate quicker than the older one


  • Registered Users Posts: 72,763 ✭✭✭✭ colm_mcm


    User1998 wrote: »
    A €16k car will not be worth €8k in 2 years.

    Your theory suggests that a €21k car will depreciate 38% in 2 years, yet the €16k car depreciated 50% in the same 2 years?

    No offence but your pulling these numbers out of thin air and really over thinking this whole future trade in thing

    And then you talk about upgrading your car in 2 years to avoid further depreciation. But the car you upgrade to will depreciate quicker than the older one

    Plus you’ll be paying a dealer their profit margin twice instead of once.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    User1998 wrote: »
    A €16k car will not be worth €8k in 2 years.

    Your theory suggests that a €21k car will depreciate 38% in 2 years, yet the €16k car depreciated 50% in the same 2 years?

    No offence but your pulling these numbers out of thin air and really over thinking this whole future trade in thing

    And then you talk about upgrading your car in 2 years to avoid further depreciation. But the car you upgrade to will depreciate quicker than the older one


    Ok yeah point taken on the €16k car depreciation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    colm_mcm wrote: »
    Plus you’ll be paying a dealer their profit margin twice instead of once.


    What do you suggest? Sell privately?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,864 ✭✭✭✭ mickdw


    You are talking 75 quid per week or circa 4k per year.
    You could borderline get into a new passat and would work out as cheap if you kept it 5 years or so.
    We have a 16 highline here with low mileage being quoted 16k on trade in and it cost 36.5k new in 2016.
    20k for 5 years driving.


  • Registered Users Posts: 72,763 ✭✭✭✭ colm_mcm


    Murt15 wrote: »
    What do you suggest? Sell privately?

    No, I’m saying buying a used car with the intentions of trading for another used car after 2 years probably doesn’t make much financial sense.

    I think your depreciation will be heavier than you think too.

    Do the sums on financing say a 191 over a longer period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭ kermitpwee


    8-10k trade in it will be worth, very optimistic figures pushed around on this thread


  • Registered Users Posts: 264 ✭✭ photosmart


    Hi All


    Not the same car - but I was recently offered 8k on a trade in on a 161 seat leon estate 1.6tdi that was in excellent condition against a 191 octavia estate. He was also using the sticker price on the octavia (ie not even offering me 9k which would be 8k for my own plus a 1k discount on the octavia which was also overpriced)



    I didn't bother shopping around (too disheartened) but to put that in perspective - the cheapest equivalent car on carzone was €12500.


    I know this is just one example but basically the dealer was applying a discount of at least 4k on my car.


    I decided to keep the car rather than line the dealers pockets however I think the moral is that second hand cars depreciate hard in ireland not just in the first couple of years but also say from years 2 - 5/6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 264 ✭✭ photosmart


    Indeed in many cases I'd say the depreciation from new to 3 years old averaged out is not that different than say from a 2 year old car to a 5 year old car.


    Moral for me is



    1. Buy New (Duster or Octavia or similar low depreciation car) and change after three years using pcp

    2. Buy a 2/3 year old car and keep it or sell privately if you can get a buyer


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    kermitpwee wrote: »
    8-10k trade in it will be worth, very optimistic figures pushed around on this thread


    That low? mickdw on the post above is being offered €16k for a 5 year old low milage highline


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    mickdw wrote: »
    You are talking 75 quid per week or circa 4k per year.
    You could borderline get into a new passat and would work out as cheap if you kept it 5 years or so.
    We have a 16 highline here with low mileage being quoted 16k on trade in and it cost 36.5k new in 2016.
    20k for 5 years driving.

    Yeah I suppose that would be ideal but the problem for me is getting that €36.5k figure or whatever it may be now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    colm_mcm wrote: »
    No, I’m saying buying a used car with the intentions of trading for another used car after 2 years probably doesn’t make much financial sense.

    I think your depreciation will be heavier than you think too.

    Do the sums on financing say a 191 over a longer period.

    Thanks yeah I'll look into the maths of a 191


  • Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭ Murt15


    photosmart wrote: »
    Hi All


    Not the same car - but I was recently offered 8k on a trade in on a 161 seat leon estate 1.6tdi that was in excellent condition against a 191 octavia estate. He was also using the sticker price on the octavia (ie not even offering me 9k which would be 8k for my own plus a 1k discount on the octavia which was also overpriced)



    I didn't bother shopping around (too disheartened) but to put that in perspective - the cheapest equivalent car on carzone was €12500.


    I know this is just one example but basically the dealer was applying a discount of at least 4k on my car.


    I decided to keep the car rather than line the dealers pockets however I think the moral is that second hand cars depreciate hard in ireland not just in the first couple of years but also say from years 2 - 5/6.


    Interesting photosmart thanks for sharing your experience.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 50,123 ✭✭✭✭ bazz26


    Trade in values are not a correct reflection of what you are is worth now or what it will be worth in 2 years time. Trade in values can be tarted up to make the deal look attractive but all it is moving numbers around. The import figure is how much money they want with your car for the newer one.

    And you cannot avoid depreciation, at best you can slow it down or limit it. If you don't want to lose too much in depreciation then best keep the car long term and get value out of it rather than trying to spend your way back up the depreciation scale in 2 years time.


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