Thursday 1st April - Clonmel

FiftyP

A day for jumps in Ireland, with some less interesting maiden races than recently, and some handicaps to give the Also Rans a day.

Racing is already underway Wetherby, Ffos Las, and Uttoxeter, all jumps.

Clonmel - Jumps - 4pm
Chelmsford - Flat AW - 4pm.

FiftyP

Clonmel
4.00
A mad maiden hurdle. Bookies seem to have no clue about this one. Cavallino is 2/1 as I write this, all seemingly based on past starting odds. Near enough or in the places in previous rides on heavy ground but no living up to short odds. I’d say someone must have watched all the races of these horses in previous rides but I doubt bookies are doing that for a nothing maiden hurdle. Coconut Tudor has a second on the same distance and ground in their only run, 40/1 in that race, 15/2 in this, but that could have been the limit of their abilities because there seems to be no mention of flaws in the running. Only down 3/4 of a length though, so definitely a possibility. Drummer raced a lot on the flat, never doing amazing, a 4th in their only jumps, Hogan’s the trainer, and he has another horse in this race I prefer. God Help Us was second to Cregane Ned in an almost 2m4f maiden, but Cregane Ned had a poor run in its first handicap. God Help Us’s race really comes down to whether it can make the pace on this shorter distance. It showed some ability two out in that race, so maybe 2m is better. But, again, the market is showing us nothing. Estepona Sun is the other Hogan horse, won twice on the flat and seemed to shape up better in the faster, slightly longer flat races. A good performance on its debut on hurdles. This is who I’d be looking at. Son of Hypnos might like the soft ground over the heavy ground on its two previous outings, very much a case of a horse “due” a win.

I might take Estepona Sun if it drifts in the market enough for me.

4.30
A 2m2.5f mares maiden hurdle. It’s hard to look past Humble Glory who will be getting her best ground and distance, especially with 7lbs from the jockey, but at odds on I will. More Wine Lilly looks like she’ll have both the ground and distance, and looks an improving sort. According to the RP Western Zara 2nd had a poor field, so I’ll go with them on that. Aughburrern Bridge is from a stable in phenomenal form, and at 40/1 is an easy gamble for e/w.

Aughburren Bridge 40/1 ew 3 places

5.00

Another race where punters will be scrambling as much as the bookies. Top weight horses all miles ahead of the bottom weight even with what they’re carrying unless there’s a plot going on, but with the age of the horses you’d have expected that to have happened already (Nurse Mairead, maybe? Stolen Moment?) Mister Butler did ok in February, but over longer and with a lot less weight. Some decent places in Chases earlier as well. Ask David has some results in its form. Tangental has a win a few weeks ago, at long odds in everything its done before with poor results. Get Home has been run all over the shop when it comes to distance. This might be its correct ride and distance. I’d have backed Mister Butler in a previous race it ran in but was withdrawn from because of the ground, but the weight is putting me off here, even if an older horse should manage it.

Get Home 7/1 ew 3 places

5.35
First chase of the day. Deburrafield I don’t think has the staying for the ground or distance. The better ground might help Desire De Joie with its jumping, but it’s still a risk. Hesamanofhisword has been near enough every time, and has been doing will (a UR allowed) in his last two runs on Yielding ground. Should have the ability to do it in this race. Mount Melleray was beaten by Full Time Score who might not be as good as we think. I’m not too sure the price reflects that race, the faster ground than its form shouldn’t affect its jumping but I’ve no idea about how it’ll handle the pace. Of Sheshoon Sonny and Erins Benefit, I don’t understand the short odds when they’ve not shown anything in chases (or not run in them) and have been only OK in relatively poor hurdle races. I especially don’t get this when you can get Danegeld at 80/1 who’s been doing well recently in hurdles and might make an impression on a chase debut (even if the distance is against it.)



Danegeld 80/1 ew 3 places

6.05
Trumps ace I feel is too short, and it’s a bookie’s hedge against e/w. Over 2m4.5f it was falling away at the end on yielding ground, and it’s not shown much in the past year on soft or heavy ground. It’s a fine horse, and could win, but not for me at these odds. Peterstown seems to be a horse that needs the right mindset, her distances have been correct but there’s no form telling on the ground. Crack on Corrie had a fine race in Downpatrick on faster ground, only 2.5l behind Springfield lodge. Against Hilltop Supreme (who’s done well) in a hurdle she was only half a length down. She’s carrying very little weight and could do well. Springfield Lodge won on good/yielding ground against Crack On Corrie, at Downpatrick which is a strange old run. They just held on and might do as well in this race, but the lack of Jordan Gainford riding might tell you something. Reine Fee would be deserved favourite with its previous run, and with the jockey riding it, but carrying over a stone over some other very good horses it might be too much. A tough race to call, with some decent horses.

Crack On Corrie 4/1 (I’m sure you can get much better prices than this but I don’t want to spend all day farting around with bookies when it’s fun money for me.)

6.35
A mess of a race. Top weight is an old horse beating up others in PTPs and a second in hurdle three weeks ago, now going for a chase. The current favourite (Marshalled) is a horse with one recent good run, a decent run before that, and is otherwise all over the shop in small prize races. Rock On barney has some great results, but again in piddling races (although it did beat Crack On Corrie well, so I have to like it.) Nicole’s Milan is much like Rock On Barney, with good recent results, but very little before that. Cappacon is another older horse that’s being pushed out to some decent recent results. After not being run much last year. All on heavy ground though, and drying soft ground today might make it a bit too fast. Stoughan Cross, yet another older horse, but this time seemingly searching for ground and distance, but can run if it’s in the right frame of mind. You’d be mad to bet on this without hearing anything, so of course I will.

Rock On Barney 12/1 ew 4 places

FiftyP

Took Estepona Sun at 14/1 3 places after the bookies are being stubborn 10 minutes out. I'm sure it'll go further, but I'm not up to playing that game for the sake of fifty p bet.

FiftyP

Estepona Sun did not do too great, some dodgy jumping, but I can't hold anything against him because he was an absolute joy to watch going around the course. Looking around, having a laugh, jumping well, not caring about jumping, inspecting other horses, refusing to move when asked. Looked like a horse with its own mind to enjoy his day out. I was breaking my arse laughing watching him run. Tremendous value.

howareyakid

Shantreusse’s second behind the expensively purchased Ginto is an eye catching line of form coming into the bumper in Clonmel at 7:05. He was beaten by 8 lengths, and it could be debatable how good a piece of form, but it should be interesting to see how he goes. He comes up against another son of Walk In The Park in the form of the favourite Hemlock, a newcomer from the all-powerful Willie Mullins yard.