Thursday 25th March - Cork

FiftyP

Racing today is all jumps.

12.30 Chepstow SSR
1.15 Ludlow RTV
2.00 Cork RTV
2.22 Sedgefield SSR

My interest, of course, is in Cork. And it looks like real funny business with the weather. Last night I was certain I saw soft somewhere in the description. It’s been windy with a few spits all through the night, and feeling cold, but it’s changed to Good to Yielding. Further, with a small bit of rain expected between 11am and the off, and going one or two hours into the racing, along with big black clouds over me near the city, I’m not sure how the course will hold up. They must be doing a magic job there if it’s Good to Yielding. I would have expected Yielding, maybe even Yielding to Soft as the day goes on. If not the ground staff deserve a pint.

Edit: It seems like the Racing Post and the bookies disagree. RP say it's good to yielding, bookies say it's yielding to soft. Cork Race Course/HRI say it's yielding good to yielding in places. And IHRB say it's good to yielding. All in all it's madness.

FiftyP

Cork
2.00
Another Maiden Hurdle after a few days of them. This time a fillies maiden hurdle. Lots of horses making their debut here so there’s nothing really to go on. There’s a few with the pedigree at short odds, including Atha Solas who’s a half-sister to Commander of Fleet who won on Sunday in Downpatrick. Brookline was beaten by Zanavi on her debut, Zanavi a horse withdrawn from a race just the other day. Fraternity has some flat form, so racing experience, and a fifth over hurdles in February and might improve. This is really a craps shoot.

I’m waiting for the right odds to see if I take Brookline. Might take Atha Solas purely based on who she’s related to even if she is drifting like a boat about to get stuck in the Suez Canal


2.30
A two mile hurdle with only five entries. A mess of a race to look at Bapaume has poor showings but managed to finish much bigger races, mostly chases. They’ve been poor when they’ve returned from a break but the quality of horses they race with speaks a lot and they’re five to one on as I write this. Self Assessed and Sojouner Truth have never shown anything. Hammersmith is only 5, but never did anything last season, some decent places but never a first. Rachael Blackmore booked after being ridden by Townend last season shows there’s some belief in the horse. Department of War is carrying a top weight, which is against it, because its one win is at 100/1 and it’s not shown that again in its next outing. This feels like a case of betting for second, ew, and hoping Bapaume is poor on their return to hurdles. Department of War has one win, while Hammersmith’s five year old-ness might have given it some improving.


3.00
Another maiden hurdle, this time over 2m4f, and with a little bit of rain predicted in Cork the going could come into play. The Greek has a good second over what I thought would be similar ground, after worse results on faster ground, the advertised faster ground might mess it up. But if the ground is actually slower than advertised it could be perfect for it but it’s reflected in the 4/6 prices. Dukes Mill has been improving in all its ride. Emily Roebling should like the distance, after doing well up to two furlongs out in a 2m6f race, I’m not sure the trainers have found the best ground or distance for her, as far as her results have shown. Glentruan is the one I’d watch, 3rd to Ahead of the Field’s second in second in February with Ahead of the Field winning in Navan on Monday. 10/1 ew for a third might be an ask, but it could manage it, and it could improve as well, maybe. 14/1 ew for 3 places would be nicer, but I doubt you’d get it.

Glentruan 12/1 ew 3 places

3.30
MacCloud for me is an interesting one, a longer trip when it tailed off in a faster 2m race. Might it stay? With the ground advertised as faster than what I’d expect I’m not sure it will. Henry Star is another with mistakes under its belt and a third on slower ground, not showing the final pace. James Fort was beaten by Coach Carter who had a poor race in Downpatrick. But James Fort, to me looks better over the longer distance, and might like the ground. Takarengo has a lot of excuses, heavily raced on the flat it’s never won, despite being only 5 it has to say something.

James Fort 3/1

4.00
The top weights are coming in favourites to this. Deealli seems to have found its distance at 2m4f and the ground should suit but I’m not sure it has the pace to finish it out. Balkos is 7/2 but I don’t think the drier ground will help, but of course we’re expecting rain. Last year it lost by 39l to Shantou Sisu over 2m and Shantou Sisu didn’t run great recently. Balkos 2nd in Thurles shows it might be improving, but I can’t see it deal with all the variables. Elusive Exclusive has never shown much, but over 2m6 it came a respectable fourth, I think the faster ground and 2m4f will suit it, plus it’s not carrying a great weight. Even more telling is its 4th met with a lot of interference on the course. A mad race to bet on, everyone with excuses and reasons to be backed. The market is all over the place, plus with the changeable weather there’s even more going on.

Elusive Exclusive 8/1 ew 4 places

4.35
A 3m hurdle. Bold Assassin is the favourite but I’m not sure faster ground will suit (the question is will we get the faster ground?) Sweet Sting has been raced, but under this jockey and over this distance this year hasn’t won anything. At Thurles five days ago it did well to come, third, and was just beaten out to second at the last minute. A quick return might be too much for it. Rebel Early has never raced this distance, but has shown a bit at shorter distances on heavier ground. If you do the sums on Dromore Lad there’s a lot of calculations to be done, ground, distance, quality of race, but I think it might do something here.

Dromore Lad 12/1 ew 3 places

5.05
It’s hard to look past Hilltop Supreme even if it is drifting in the market. For the rest it’s a case of looking at what the ground will be like. Cregane Ned has a chance if it softens. Fierami I can’t understand, with its win on heavy ground in February, although a fourth by only 5 3/4 lengths on Yielding to Soft shows it might have something. Jordan Gainford was riding in both those races though. Master Artist had two seconds last on better ground last August, but it was short priced, that being said you can’t rule it out depending, again, on the weather. Yabo might surprise after finding its distance and ground with a win last August, it depends on how it returns as a 6 yo. I think Chenery shows the versatility to win on this ground, or at least place. I should wait out the odds and see how the course shapes up, but 2m4f is a good distance for it, and it’s a somewhat ok price.

Chenery 10/1 ew 4 places

FiftyP

I couldn't be dealing with waiting until 3pm to have an interest in a race, so I foolishly put some money on the first two races.

2.00
Brookline 7/2
2.30
Department of War 10/1 ew 2 places

Frozen Veg

Winner of the opener looked like a nice one on its first outing.

FiftyP

Frozen Veg wrote: »

Winner of the opener looked like a nice one on its first outing.

Yeah, very nice. And the ground looks quick, while there's a heavy wind so there's a bit of pace along with some mentality there as well.

GillLebowski

Frozen Veg wrote: »

Winner of the opener looked like a nice one on its first outing.

Great pedigree too... I thought being Bolger's horse he might just need the run, so could be even more impressive soon... Won well beating a horse that ran to a mark of 78 on the flat, not bad for your first jumps start...

FiftyP

Really enjoyable race to watch that, the 3.30. Four horses in it at the final fence. Came down to the two favourites and Takarengo just showing a bit of pace and willpower to win by a neck.

AMHR

Aspen Fior my only bet of the day in the 5.35. 7/1. Hoping it will go in today after gaining experience first time out.

FiftyP

AMHR wrote: »

Aspen Fior my only bet of the day in the 5.35. 7/1. Hoping it will go in today after gaining experience first time out.

She looks like an absolute looper of a horse. If she ever goes over jumps I'm not sure she'll actually go over them rather go through them.

oldfella

fair play .few nice picks there