Monday 22nd March - Maidens In Navan

FiftyP

Racing today...

All Jumps
Southwell 12.30 SSR
Plumpton 1.45 SSR
Navan 1.55 RTV
Kelso 2.10 RTV

FiftyP

Navan looks like an exciting days racing. A lot of young horses, some races for 4yo and others for 5yo, all Maiden Hurdling with two races for horses that haven’t quite yet made their way out of the mire despite experience. The early races look like it could be anyone’s game, as the day progresses tips, drifters and backed horses all begin to show up. It’s possible we’ll get more than one horse to really follow for the future from today.

1.55 Navan
A total gamble of a race (looking back it seems it’s a day of Maiden Hurdles, so it’s really a great day to spot a horse for the future.) I think only a few horses have run over a similar distance under rules. I don’t think any horse has run and good to yielding ground. Of the horses with experience at PTPs they’ve not shown much. Ahead of the Field is 6yo, ridden by Jordan Gainford, it’s drifted in the market, but for me one second and a point to point second show it might have something. But this is a total risk.

Ahead of the Field 12/1 ew 3 places (could have got 14/1 on this if I acted sooner, or maybe waited a little longer after it dropped to 12/1.)

2.25
Another gamble of a race but the horses all have a bit more experience. Aukland has potential over better ground, showing some ability on the flat (albeit only some) and showed they can get around a course on heavy ground, which means something at this age for ability. Shortening odds are in its favour as well. All the same could be said for Knight of Malta except it had a second on heavy ground. The gamble, for me, however, is Nazine. One race on Y/Sft, at this course and at this distance coming third. 6/1 is short, however, even if it’s been backed in from 7/1. I think this is a case of do you take longer odds and hope the signs are there, or shorter odds and hope the horse is true.

Was gonna take Nazine at 6/1 but as I waited it came into 4/1. I think that’s a heavy gamble and not a sure thing.
Knight of Malta 4/1


2.55
A really interesting race. A few horses making their debut with no history. Experienced and big name trainers all racing. Coventry fell on their last outing but it was on heavy ground so a tired young horse is always a possibility. Happy Victory from GE making their debut, with Jack Kennedy riding, and from reading between the lines on the Racing Post JK switched from Sideshift, with Happy Victory at 5/2 in the market. Sideshift, the other GE/Denise Foster horse has a lot more experience, albeit never winning on the ground it was on and some poor showings on the flat on good ground. Something to note is last November it came 3rd 5 1/4 lengths behind Jeff Kidder. Maybe the stable don’t have confidence, or maybe they want Jack Kennedy on the inexperienced horse, maybe both. Up With The Play did poorly on the flat, but has a third on heavy ground on the 2nd March. Maybe that is it’s ground, and jumps are its running, but performing on heavy ground for a young horse shows something for me. It’s drifted from 5/1 to 6/1 and if I can get it at a better price I might take and ew bet.

Up With The Play 13/2

3.25
Five year olds and up this time. Bigbadandbeaufitul has some experience in Bumpers, serious money won. Again I think Jack Kennedy is not only being put on the horses to win, but to guide them over hurdles their first time out. Two to one on are crazy odds for the first time a horse goes over jumps no matter how well schooled a horse is in training. Whether we’ll be looking at the horse in a years time might get decided today. Cathmart Desjy has gone on heavier ground, with one decent result over fences, and one poor PU on heavy ground. I think the ground might suit it here. Newtown Pery has one race, with lighter weights, on softer ground, and was 10 lengths back in fifth after finding no extra but it did stay on the ground. Maybe an e/w shout.

Cathmart Desjy 4/1

4.00
A fair bit of market movement in this race. Corey Lad has gone from 20/1 to 10/1, and if I thought of Newtown Pery in a previous race then this beat it by half a length in the race that stood out for me for both. I think Jawbox is telling in who’s booked to ride. Jack Kennedy might need a break, and they might be giving Keith Donoghue a ride to win, but it shows something. Tango Theatre from 20/1 to 8/1 is another to look at. Performed poorly over 2m4f on softer ground, did better on heavy ground with light weights in January. Some P2P form and always seems to be improving when it takes on new experiences. I just wonder if the better ground will be too much for it.

For me it’s ew bets between Corey Lad and Tango Theatre.
Corey Lad 10/1 ew 3 places
Tango Theatre 8/1

4.30
Back to 4yo and a handicap. Much like AMHR I like Annie Pender in this. Back from 8/1 to 13/2. Showed ability over softer ground in tougher races. Has an ability to finish with speed on that softer ground, and managed a 2m4f yieled race with some speed in the finish even if she was a bit back. Similar could be said for Zanavi, but has never raced on quicker ground. Five Helmets has one win and a lot of whiff. Presenting Dylan is deserved favourite, a win on good ground, high rating, Jordan Gainford in fine form plus a 7lb allowance. McAlpine is another who’s been improving, and has done something on heavier ground while having some ability on softer ground.

I think I’d take Annie Pender if the ew odds were correct, but otherwise I’ll take a drifting Zanaavi, just for a gamble and to oppose someone else in the thread.

Zanavi 9/1 ew 4 places (Enhanced EW)

5.00
A race for horses that have really showed nothing. I feel the top weights are being screwed for having one good race and showing nothing anywhere else. The real value comes from the low handicaps. Tech Talk has dropped in odds over its races, and it’s the one good race thing I’m talking about where the handicapper is looking at its lack of exposure. Boghlone Honey at 9/4 has shown more, and is probably the favourite for a reason. Chaparral Dream looks like a nightmare horse. The RP talks about its form over the flat not being in keep with the yard, and I have to wonder if that’s because the horse is a bollocks, and they’re switching it to hurdles to try and shake it up, or if it was always the plan. Clonbury Bridge has come sort-of close over longer distances on softer ground, but never quite got there. Its finished ok, keeping on, but never showed anything. At 6/1 in might be a nice risk. Cousin Harry is another Chaparral Dream for me, being mixed up on the flat, and ridden a lot, but showed better over hurdles.

Chaparral Dream 25/1 ew 4 places
Cousin Harry 14/1 ew 4 places

FiftyP

I'm gonna quote AMHR's post of their bets from the D J Jeffrey's plot thread in here. I figure it's better to keep that thread, about potential shenanigans (from someone? from who? who knows? Even if the shenanigans exists?) clear of my twitterings about what I see in the races. And I'll try not to make excuses after, but simply explain what happened.

Anyway, AMHR's bets.

AMHR wrote: »

Only the two for me today.

1.30 Southwell NINA THE TERRIER 6/1. Should give a good account and slightly overpriced.

4.30 Navan ANNIE PENDER 7/1.

Both ew singles and going to try an ew double for luck.

Inquitus

FiftyP wrote: »

Navan looks like an exciting days racing. A lot of young horses, some races for 4yo and others for 5yo, all Maiden Hurdling with two races for horses that haven’t quite yet made their way out of the mire despite experience. The early races look like it could be anyone’s game, as the day progresses tips, drifters and backed horses all begin to show up. It’s possible we’ll get more than one horse to really follow for the future from today.

1.55 Navan
A total gamble of a race (looking back it seems it’s a day of Maiden Hurdles, so it’s really a great day to spot a horse for the future.) I think only a few horses have run over a similar distance under rules. I don’t think any horse has run and good to yielding ground. Of the horses with experience at PTPs they’ve not shown much. Ahead of the Field is 6yo, ridden by Jordan Gainford, it’s drifted in the market, but for me one second and a point to point second show it might have something. But this is a total risk.

Ahead of the Field 12/1 ew 3 places (could have got 14/1 on this if I acted sooner, or maybe waited a little longer after it dropped to 12/1.)

2.25
Another gamble of a race but the horses all have a bit more experience. Aukland has potential over better ground, showing some ability on the flat (albeit only some) and showed they can get around a course on heavy ground, which means something at this age for ability. Shortening odds are in its favour as well. All the same could be said for Knight of Malta except it had a second on heavy ground. The gamble, for me, however, is Nazine. One race on Y/Sft, at this course and at this distance coming third. 6/1 is short, however, even if it’s been backed in from 7/1. I think this is a case of do you take longer odds and hope the signs are there, or shorter odds and hope the horse is true.

Was gonna take Nazine at 6/1 but as I waited it came into 4/1. I think that’s a heavy gamble and not a sure thing.
Knight of Malta 4/1


2.55
A really interesting race. A few horses making their debut with no history. Experienced and big name trainers all racing. Coventry fell on their last outing but it was on heavy ground so a tired young horse is always a possibility. Happy Victory from GE making their debut, with Jack Kennedy riding, and from reading between the lines on the Racing Post JK switched from Sideshift, with Happy Victory at 5/2 in the market. Sideshift, the other GE/Denise Foster horse has a lot more experience, albeit never winning on the ground it was on and some poor showings on the flat on good ground. Something to note is last November it came 3rd 5 1/4 lengths behind Jeff Kidder. Maybe the stable don’t have confidence, or maybe they want Jack Kennedy on the inexperienced horse, maybe both. Up With The Play did poorly on the flat, but has a third on heavy ground on the 2nd March. Maybe that is it’s ground, and jumps are its running, but performing on heavy ground for a young horse shows something for me. It’s drifted from 5/1 to 6/1 and if I can get it at a better price I might take and ew bet.

Up With The Play 13/2

3.25
Five year olds and up this time. Bigbadandbeaufitul has some experience in Bumpers, serious money won. Again I think Jack Kennedy is not only being put on the horses to win, but to guide them over hurdles their first time out. Two to one on are crazy odds for the first time a horse goes over jumps no matter how well schooled a horse is in training. Whether we’ll be looking at the horse in a years time might get decided today. Cathmart Desjy has gone on heavier ground, with one decent result over fences, and one poor PU on heavy ground. I think the ground might suit it here. Newtown Pery has one race, with lighter weights, on softer ground, and was 10 lengths back in fifth after finding no extra but it did stay on the ground. Maybe an e/w shout.

Cathmart Desjy 4/1

4.00
A fair bit of market movement in this race. Corey Lad has gone from 20/1 to 10/1, and if I thought of Newtown Pery in a previous race then this beat it by half a length in the race that stood out for me for both. I think Jawbox is telling in who’s booked to ride. Jack Kennedy might need a break, and they might be giving Keith Donoghue a ride to win, but it shows something. Tango Theatre from 20/1 to 8/1 is another to look at. Performed poorly over 2m4f on softer ground, did better on heavy ground with light weights in January. Some P2P form and always seems to be improving when it takes on new experiences. I just wonder if the better ground will be too much for it.

For me it’s ew bets between Corey Lad and Tango Theatre.
Corey Lad 10/1 ew 3 places
Tango Theatre 8/1

4.30
Back to 4yo and a handicap. Much like AMHR I like Annie Pender in this. Back from 8/1 to 13/2. Showed ability over softer ground in tougher races. Has an ability to finish with speed on that softer ground, and managed a 2m4f yieled race with some speed in the finish even if she was a bit back. Similar could be said for Zanavi, but has never raced on quicker ground. Five Helmets has one win and a lot of whiff. Presenting Dylan is deserved favourite, a win on good ground, high rating, Jordan Gainford in fine form plus a 7lb allowance. McAlpine is another who’s been improving, and has done something on heavier ground while having some ability on softer ground.

I think I’d take Annie Pender if the ew odds were correct, but otherwise I’ll take a drifting Zanaavi, just for a gamble and to oppose someone else in the thread.

Zanavi 9/1 ew 4 places (Enhanced EW)

5.00
A race for horses that have really showed nothing. I feel the top weights are being screwed for having one good race and showing nothing anywhere else. The real value comes from the low handicaps. Tech Talk has dropped in odds over its races, and it’s the one good race thing I’m talking about where the handicapper is looking at its lack of exposure. Boghlone Honey at 9/4 has shown more, and is probably the favourite for a reason. Chaparral Dream looks like a nightmare horse. The RP talks about its form over the flat not being in keep with the yard, and I have to wonder if that’s because the horse is a bollocks, and they’re switching it to hurdles to try and shake it up, or if it was always the plan. Clonbury Bridge has come sort-of close over longer distances on softer ground, but never quite got there. Its finished ok, keeping on, but never showed anything. At 6/1 in might be a nice risk. Cousin Harry is another Chaparral Dream for me, being mixed up on the flat, and ridden a lot, but showed better over hurdles.

Chaparral Dream 25/1 ew 4 places
Cousin Harry 14/1 ew 4 places

Thanks, nice win on Ahead of the Field! SP came into 5/1 per the beeb, I got him at 11's.

FiftyP

Inquitus wrote: »

Thanks, nice win on Ahead of the Field! SP came into 5/1 per the beeb, I got him at 11's.

Please don't follow me. I topped up my account on the Tuesday of Cheltenham, bet on every race in Cheltenham, almost every race at Thurles, Downpatrick and today at Navan, and my account is down just under 50%.

Inquitus

FiftyP wrote: »

Please don't follow me. I topped up my account on the Tuesday of Cheltenham, bet on every race in Cheltenham, almost every race at Thurles, Downpatrick and today at Navan, and my account is down just under 50%.

I won a bit with the lads on Cheltenham, we left 50 of the bookies money in the account, so it's either lose it or win enough to make cashing it out worthwhile, not fussed either way, but thanks.

FiftyP

Nazine is some horse. Did that easily. Didn't look bothered about running the whole way through and still managed to set the pace (ish) easily. Real quality.

Two great races so far.

FiftyP

Up With The Play drifting in this. People must be paying attention to its third behind Knight of Malta in its previous race. I have to say my confidence isn't high, but the inexperience of the horses and change in ground could tell anything.

Edit: Now shortening again. Teaches me for not playing the odds (which I have no clue how to do.)

FiftyP

Up With The Play a real trying horse. Might plod around heavier ground and scratch an odd win but it doesn't have a future. There's no real potential there.

Sideshift tried to make all, and I think withdrawing Happy Victory speaks a lot with which jockey was booked and couldn't ride today.

I'm not too sure what we found out about Coventry, but he showed quality throughout the race, even if it wasn't a fight by the end of it.

Watch Coventry in other races to see how he runs, especially watch Happy Victory for being withdrawn, which I think is the biggest thing to take from this race.

FiftyP

I don't want to be harsh, he's obviously an intelligent rider, but over jumps and coming into the final push Brian Hayes has a touch on a horse like he's a drunken JCB.

Zanavi out of the next so Annie Pender 11/2 to win.

FiftyP

Brilliant ride from Hugh Morgan in the last in Navan. Before the race was even halfway run he recognised Kasakh Noir and Liam McKenna weren't going to trail off and be caught with the natural packs pace and sent Cousin Harry out to catch up. He did catch him, stayed with him for a little, then pushed ahead in the final furlong. Top jockeying.

sdoc13

FiftyP wrote: »

Please don't follow me. I topped up my account on the Tuesday of Cheltenham, bet on every race in Cheltenham, almost every race at Thurles, Downpatrick and today at Navan, and my account is down just under 50%.

Hi fiftyp. Firstly fair play for the write ups n best of luck with ur selections.
Not everyone bets to make money n if you are enjoying it n not bothered about losing a few quid then best of luck.
If u do want to try n make a return you have 0 chance backing that many selections daily.
My advice is find a type of race you like/find it easier to find an angle on n stick to them.
I rarely bet midweek n could go weeks without a bet. I used to make a few quid on all weather handicaps but I don't have the time now to put into it so I generally just stick to larger meets n weekend racing.

FiftyP

sdoc13 wrote: »

Hi fiftyp. Firstly fair play for the write ups n best of luck with ur selections.
Not everyone bets to make money n if you are enjoying it n not bothered about losing a few quid then best of luck.
If u do want to try n make a return you have 0 chance backing that many selections daily.
My advice is find a type of race you like/find it easier to find an angle on n stick to them.
I rarely bet midweek n could go weeks without a bet. I used to make a few quid on all weather handicaps but I don't have the time now to put into it so I generally just stick to larger meets n weekend racing.

I appreciate this. I am enjoying it, and I'm not too concerned about money. I think you could probably just about buy a single Freddo in a corner shop for the amount I stake (e/w) in a race, not even a Freddo for a single. I'll go through phases where I'm interested in racing, and look at it constantly for a while, and then when something else comes up I'll forget about it. For the moment I'm at home in the afternoons, and having a race to watch and get excited about every thirty minutes or so is a great distraction. In a week it might be a video game, but I'll stick with this for as long as I have interest and the time to look at the form.

Although when I say I'm not too concerned about money it isn't exactly correct. I'm concerned enough to keep my amount bet very low. At some point I would like to make money, obviously, but I don't have the ability either in reading the form or familiarity with the individual horses and other factors to do that. You say find the type of race I like or find it easier to bet on and stick with that. I guess I'm sort of doing that at the moment through brute force. I don't have enough knowledge to know where, if I have any, my skills lie in picking horses. I could just watch, but even by putting 40c on a horse it forces me to make a decision. If I didn't have the balance with a bookie, and the actual winning or losing, even if it's for fairly irrelevant amounts, I could convince myself of anything after the race. It's a case of putting a tiny amount of money where my mouth is.

So, all in all, it's a few things. Something to occupy me during days I have nothing to do, having a bit of excitement in the race and the psychological excitement from having anything staked and seeing numbers going up and down, actually figuring out where my skills lie in looking at form and horses, and maybe eventually knowing enough to make money, at which point my BOG will be removed, and I'll have to learn about how the market moves.

All that being said. I hope I'm not annoying anyone with my flurry of posting. I know a lot of people are in the fortunate (or unfortunate, depending on how you look at it) position of being in work or otherwise busy and not being able to watch the racing. I watched all the races in Navan today, and tried to provide some insight on the interesting aspects of what happened for anyone who can look at a forum but not the video feeds.

I would say the races today are absolutely worth watching on the racing review, or whatever on demand service you can get. There were some great wins, especially earlier in the day, from horses that might have serious potential.