Southern United States winter storm

Jimbob1977

Remarkable cold spell for the United States, especially the Deep South.

Temperatures were about -15c in Houston, which is fairly close to the Gulf of Mexico.

As the houses aren't constructed for cold weather, the inevitable burst pipes have made drinking water a public health issue.

Energy prices have increased from about $0.10 per kilowatt to c. $7.00 per kilowatt.

One lady's electricity bill for her house was $6,000 for a few days.

Is this a "once in a generation" event.... or likely to become more commonplace?

nacho libre

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Remarkable cold spell for the United States, especially the Deep South.

Temperatures were about -15c in Houston, which is fairly close to the Gulf of Mexico.

As the houses aren't constructed for cold weather, the inevitable burst pipes have made drinking water a public health issue.

Energy prices have increased from about $0.10 per kilowatt to c. $7.00 per kilowatt.

One lady's electricity bill for her house was $6,000 for a few days.

Is this a "once in a generation" event.... or likely to become more commonplace?

It depends who you ask, some will say with a warming Arctic it will become more common , others that it's just weather variability- once in a generation type thing, as you put it

Graces7

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Remarkable cold spell for the United States, especially the Deep South.

Temperatures were about -15c in Houston, which is fairly close to the Gulf of Mexico.

As the houses aren't constructed for cold weather, the inevitable burst pipes have made drinking water a public health issue.

Energy prices have increased from about $0.10 per kilowatt to c. $7.00 per kilowatt.

One lady's electricity bill for her house was $6,000 for a few days.

Is this a "once in a generation" event.... or likely to become more commonplace?

And the death rate from the cold is growing; we have friends out there. Folk are literally being found dead of cold. Others are better prepared with working fireplaces and fuel in.

Whatever the thinking we all need to be fully prepared for extremes.

JCX BXC

A 7000% increase on energy prices on struggling people?

Oh America, you never fail to impress me.

Gaoth Laidir

My aunt's house just north of Houston flooded during the week when a pipe burst. An inconvenience, but at least she didn't freeze to death. There was another case where a grandmother and her three grandchildren burned to death while the mother of the children watched helplessly from outside. It was due to them lighting a fire to keep warm.

Look at this sounding from Fort Worth, with a surface temperature of -17.

Akrasia

The atmosphere scientist Jennifer Francis has been talking about how polar amplification is reducing the temperature difference between Arctic and temperate regions and this is causing changes to the jet stream which is now meandering much more, when the jet stream meanders, it pulls colder arctic air south with it which results in these kinds of extreme events. The same phenomenon caused the blocking systems that led to Houston getting flooded after Hurricanes Harvey in 2017, and another blocking system caused Superstorm Sandy to travel up the east Coast of the USA instead of traveling east across the Atlantic as most gulf hurricanes tend to do

A paper recently published warns that the slow down of the polar vortex and diminishing temperature gradient between the poles and tropics will also lead to worse and longer lasting summer heatwaves in the US. We have seen that the Texas energy infrastructure is vulnerable to cascading failures, If there is a similar power grid disruption in an extreme heatwave, many people will die from heatstroke

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/same-mechanism-behind-southern-cold-spell-could-drive-prolonged-heat-waves

Oneiric 3

2014:

"In Much of U.S., Extreme Cold is Becoming More Rare"

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-cold-events-in-a-climate-context-16931


Extreme cold is becoming more rare because of climate change, but when extreme cold occurs, it's down to climate change.

If ever there was a perfect example of the term 'gaslighting', then this is it.

Akrasia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

2014:

"In Much of U.S., Extreme Cold is Becoming More Rare"

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-cold-events-in-a-climate-context-16931


Extreme cold is becoming more rare because of climate change, but when extreme cold occurs, it's down to climate change.

If ever there was a perfect example of the term 'gaslighting', then this is it.

What do you think of the actual mechanisms involved in the Texan winter storm? How did that polar air reach so far south? Do you think Francis’ explanation has any scientific merit?

Oneiric 3

Akrasia wrote: »

What do you think of the actual mechanisms involved in the Texan winter storm? How did that polar air reach so far south? Do you think Francis’ explanation has any scientific merit?

Care to address the contradictory messaging from 'climate scientists' as I showed in my post (and that is just one of many, many examples) rather than asking totally unrelated questions?

Danno

Akrasia wrote: »

What do you think of the actual mechanisms involved in the Texan winter storm? How did that polar air reach so far south? Do you think Francis’ explanation has any scientific merit?

How did Houston TX record 20 inches of snow in the year 1895? Pretty sure there was no climate change then?

Rikand

Akrasia wrote: »

What do you think of the actual mechanisms involved in the Texan winter storm? How did that polar air reach so far south?

Because mother nature just does whatever the **** she wants to do!

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

The atmosphere scientist Jennifer Francis has been talking about how polar amplification is reducing the temperature difference between Arctic and temperate regions and this is causing changes to the jet stream which is now meandering much more, when the jet stream meanders, it pulls colder arctic air south with it which results in these kinds of extreme events. The same phenomenon caused the blocking systems that led to Houston getting flooded after Hurricanes Harvey in 2017, and another blocking system caused Superstorm Sandy to travel up the east Coast of the USA instead of traveling east across the Atlantic as most gulf hurricanes tend to do

A paper recently published warns that the slow down of the polar vortex and diminishing temperature gradient between the poles and tropics will also lead to worse and longer lasting summer heatwaves in the US. We have seen that the Texas energy infrastructure is vulnerable to cascading failures, If there is a similar power grid disruption in an extreme heatwave, many people will die from heatstroke

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/same-mechanism-behind-southern-cold-spell-could-drive-prolonged-heat-waves

Can't have a thread about a weather event now without the usual people immediately claiming it can be attributed to the ole agw. It's like that "meteorologist" on a tv clip posted on some thread here the other day who blamed the "almost ice-free Arctic ocean" for this Texas outbreak. We're reaching the annual peak in Arctic ice, so he's 100% wrong with his "ice-free", but that will go unchallenged and the population will swallow it without question.

Its not unusual for Dallas and northern Texas to have snow
Its just a freak event to get it so severe so far douth,easier to happen actually than snow in the Sahara albeit at altitude,low enough altitude at times

https://www.space.com/39411-satellite-images-capture-rare-snowfall-sahara.html

Akrasia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Care to address the contradictory messaging from 'climate scientists' as I showed in my post (and that is just one of many, many examples) rather than asking totally unrelated questions?

How exactly is the cause of the winter storm ‘totally unrelated’ to the topic

Akrasia

Rikand wrote: »

Because mother nature just does whatever the **** she wants to do!

I don’t believe in Mother Nature. I believe in science

highdef

Akrasia wrote: »

I don’t believe in Mother Nature. I believe in science

Because science just does whatever the **** it does!

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Can't have a thread about a weather event now without the usual people immediately claiming it can be attributed to the ole agw. It's like that "meteorologist" on a tv clip posted on some thread here the other day who blamed the "almost ice-free Arctic ocean" for this Texas outbreak. We're reaching the annual peak in Arctic ice, so he's 100% wrong with his "ice-free", but that will go unchallenged and the population will swallow it without question.

When you say immediately, you really mean a week after it started?
Then you go on to put some random weatherman’s words into my mouth?

I’m not talking about climate change for the lols, I’m linking this event to climate change because there is a plausible mechanism that links them. What do you think about the mechanism I referred to? The Jennifer Francis theory that the polar vortex and jet stream weaken when the difference between arctic temps and tropical temps are reduced

Akrasia

AuntySnow wrote: »

Its not unusual for Dallas and northern Texas to have snow
Its just a freak event to get it so severe so far douth,easier to happen actually than snow in the Sahara albeit at altitude,low enough altitude at times

https://www.space.com/39411-satellite-images-capture-rare-snowfall-sahara.html

It is unusual to have Texas so cold that their electricity and water infrastructure collapses because these infrastructure were not designed for such low temperatures because they were thought to be so unlikely to occur that it would be a waste of resources to protect against them

Akrasia

Danno wrote: »

How did Houston TX record 20 inches of snow in the year 1895? Pretty sure there was no climate change then?

I don’t know, there were the right atmospheric conditions that were caused by something else. Events always have at least one cause.

PokeHerKing

Akrasia wrote: »

The atmosphere scientist Jennifer Francis has been talking about how polar amplification is reducing the temperature difference between Arctic and temperate regions and this is causing changes to the jet stream which is now meandering much more, when the jet stream meanders, it pulls colder arctic air south with it which results in these kinds of extreme events. The same phenomenon caused the blocking systems that led to Houston getting flooded after Hurricanes Harvey in 2017, and another blocking system caused Superstorm Sandy to travel up the east Coast of the USA instead of traveling east across the Atlantic as most gulf hurricanes tend to do

A paper recently published warns that the slow down of the polar vortex and diminishing temperature gradient between the poles and tropics will also lead to worse and longer lasting summer heatwaves in the US. We have seen that the Texas energy infrastructure is vulnerable to cascading failures, If there is a similar power grid disruption in an extreme heatwave, many people will die from heatstroke

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/same-mechanism-behind-southern-cold-spell-could-drive-prolonged-heat-waves

I preferred when your side of the argument stuck to the company line for freak cold events of "thats weather, not climate". We look like we're moving towards an even more fanatical version where "every freak weather event is AGW".

This extreme one eyed view only serves to create an opposing extreme view and you just push more moderate people to care less about the whole thing.

Akrasia

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I preferred when your side of the argument stuck to the company line for freak cold events of "thats weather, not climate". We look like we're moving towards an even more fanatical version where "every freak weather event is AGW".

This extreme one eyed view only serves to create an opposing extreme view and you just push more moderate people to care less about the whole thing.

Not one person here has even mentioned the science
This is a weather forum that agonises over dew points and wet bulb temps when there is the prospect of a snowflake hitting Cabra, but when Houston gets blasted with freak ice storms, that’s just ‘weather’. Mother Nature can not be explained

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

When you say immediately, you really mean a week after it started?
Then you go on to put some random weatherman’s words into my mouth?

I’m not talking about climate change for the lols, I’m linking this event to climate change because there is a plausible mechanism that links them. What do you think about the mechanism I referred to? The Jennifer Francis theory that the polar vortex and jet stream weaken when the difference between arctic temps and tropical temps are reduced

So how come the polar vortex was so strong up to the new year, and during other previous winters? We had a SSW at the start of the year. This is well known to disrupt the jet. If a warm Arctic is to blame then we really shouldn't be seeing the polar jet forming at all.

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

How did Houston TX record 20 inches of snow in the year 1895? Pretty sure there was no climate change then?

The Arctic was very, very cold in 1895:



Cold Arctic air helped push frigid North Pole air down over the southern States.

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

I don’t know, there were the right atmospheric conditions that were caused by something else. Events always have at least one cause.

Those right atmospheric conditions could happen a century ago but no way nowadays, right? What was that something else?

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

It is unusual to have Texas so cold that their electricity and water infrastructure collapses because these infrastructure were not designed for such low temperatures because they were thought to be so unlikely to occur that it would be a waste of resources to protect against them

They are unlikely to occur, but they do still occur. Always have.

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

Not one person here has even mentioned the science
This is a weather forum that agonises over dew points and wet bulb temps when there is the prospect of a snowflake hitting Cabra, but when Houston gets blasted with freak ice storms, that’s just ‘weather’. Mother Nature can not be explained

I think I've pretty much covered it in my past 3 posts now.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

It is unusual to have Texas so cold that their electricity and water infrastructure collapses because these infrastructure were not designed for such low temperatures because they were thought to be so unlikely to occur that it would be a waste of resources to protect against them

As its only ever happened once,then I think it falls deeply into the category of unlikely
Also the Texas grid is not connected to the fedral grid
Ergo no backup supplies
The latter is probably the biggest take home there

PokeHerKing

Akrasia wrote: »

Not one person here has even mentioned the science
This is a weather forum that agonises over dew points and wet bulb temps when there is the prospect of a snowflake hitting Cabra, but when Houston gets blasted with freak ice storms, that’s just ‘weather’. Mother Nature can not be explained

I think this forum is full of amateur weather enthusiast's who understand that calling the weather 5 days from now is not an exact science. So when posters claim one freak event is proof of AGW/climate catastrophe and the "science" backs it up they're naturally sceptical.

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

So how come the polar vortex was so strong up to the new year, and during other previous winters? We had a SSW at the start of the year. This is well known to disrupt the jet. If a warm Arctic is to blame then we really shouldn't be seeing the polar jet forming at all.

The polar vortex is a bit like a flywheel, if it spins quickly, it is more stable and less likely to shift or wobble. The vortex is constantly getting slammed by other weather systems, a weaker polar vortex is more easily disrupted when hit by another weather system

The vortex was already disrupted in December after getting hit by a powerful storm and hasn’t been able to recover and probably won’t recover at all this year, (at least until it reforms in Autumn
It actually reversed direction for a time in December/January

The polar vortex tends to keep the cold Arctic air masses locked over the Arctic but when it breaks down, this cold air spills out, and then the meandering jet can drag it south as we have seen happening over the last week or so in Texas

https://climatechange.ucdavis.edu/climate-change-definitions/what-is-the-polar-vortex/

How is this affected by climate change? Because the polar regions are warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the planet, thus reducing the temperature gradient that partially drives the strength of the jet stream and polar vortex

Akrasia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The Arctic was very, very cold in 1895:



Cold Arctic air helped push frigid North Pole air down over the southern States.

It was cold, how cool we’re the tropics that year? It’s not the absolute temperature that drives the vortex, it’s the temperature gradient. The polar vortex may have been weak in 1895, or maybe there was a very powerful storm that disrupted the vortex and had a similar effect from a different cause. I do not have the any way of knowing.
Also, Krakatoa had erupted a decade before the winter snow in 1895, this drove down global temperatures and would have had a wierding effect on global climate and weather as equilibrium had temporarily shifted

There are lots of reasons why the vortex gets disrupted, my point is that a weaker vortex is disrupted more easily and this makes these kind of events more likely to happen,

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those right atmospheric conditions could happen a century ago but no way nowadays, right? What was that something else?

Polar amplification weakens the jet stream and polar vortex making these events that bit more likely. Doesn’t mean they were impossible or never happened before AGW, but the dice is getting loaded

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

They are unlikely to occur, but they do still occur. Always have.

Yes, but a once in a century event could become a once in a decade event due to climate

Akrasia

AuntySnow wrote: »

As its only ever happened once,then I think it falls deeply into the category of unlikely
Also the Texas grid is not connected to the fedral grid
Ergo no backup supplies
The latter is probably the biggest take home there

The political system in Texas certainly did make the consequences of this storm much worse than it could have been, their refusal to regulate utility providers to ensure they could operate in in icy conditions definitely cost lives, as well as many other dire consequences from their Laissez faire approach to big business

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

The polar vortex is a bit like a flywheel, if it spins quickly, it is more stable and less likely to shift or wobble. The vortex is constantly getting slammed by other weather systems, a weaker polar vortex is more easily disrupted when hit by another weather system

The vortex was already disrupted in December after getting hit by a powerful storm and hasn’t been able to recover and probably won’t recover at all this year, (at least until it reforms in Autumn
It actually reversed direction for a time in December/January

The polar vortex tends to keep the cold Arctic air masses locked over the Arctic but when it breaks down, this cold air spills out, and then the meandering jet can drag it south as we have seen happening over the last week or so in Texas

https://climatechange.ucdavis.edu/climate-change-definitions/what-is-the-polar-vortex/

How is this affected by climate change? Because the polar regions are warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the planet, thus reducing the temperature gradient that partially drives the strength of the jet stream and polar vortex

I know how the polar vortex works and mentioned about the sudden stratospheric warming that occurred at the start of January. That's a natural process, by the way.

What I'm getting at is can you provide some charts or something to show that this particular event was caused by something other than that "something" that you think was probably responsible for the 1895 snowstorm but were unable to identify. If you're able to attribute this event to agw then I'm sure you have some evidence to back it up, showing how the now frozen Arctic somehow caused that northerly outbreak. The link you posted, by the way, does not prove a thing and in fact seems to say the opposite, i.e. there is no evidence or consensus to say that it could have anything to do with it. For example,

If Arctic amplification is influencing the jet stream in this way, there could be widespread impacts on weather across vast swaths of North America and Eurasia. In particular, a flurry of recent studies have explored whether a weaker, wavier jet stream could lead to more Arctic air intrusions at low latitudes like the extreme cold spell gripping vast swaths of the country this week.

However, these connections are contentious. While scientists generally agree that Arctic warming can influence the jet stream, there is little consensus on whether the jet stream has already experienced significant changes due to climate change, how extreme any future changes will be, or how much of an effect that will have on mid-latitude weather.

Complicating matters further, the direction of influence might go both ways: A study published last year suggested that random fluctuations in the jet stream might be enhancing Arctic warming by transporting heat and moisture from mid-latitudes north.

The findings have some important caveats. While the authors found a link between a warming Arctic and slower summer weather, their results—like much of the research on Arctic amplification and cold air outbreaks in winter—don’t prove that the former causes the latter. Future research will be needed to demonstrate any causal links to Arctic warming and the jet stream.

Even if rapid Arctic warming does lead to more stalled summer weather patterns further south, it’s unlikely that it will be the sole factor at play. “There are many factors that influence [weather] persistence, and the temperature gradient might not be the dominant one,” Screen says.

As Kornhuber and Tamarin-Brodsky note in their paper, not all climate models agree that the Arctic amplification effect will continue to grow more intense in the summer. But even in scenarios where the equator-to-pole temperature difference begins growing again—implying a reduced Arctic amplification effect—the authors’ models still project summer weather patterns slowing down in North America.

Akrasia

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I think this forum is full of amateur weather enthusiast's who understand that calling the weather 5 days from now is not an exact science. So when posters claim one freak event is proof of AGW/climate catastrophe and the "science" backs it up they're naturally sceptical.

And so they should be, I didn’t do that however

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

Polar amplification weakens the jet stream and polar vortex making these events that bit more likely. Doesn’t mean they were impossible or never happened before AGW, but the dice is getting loaded

Akrasia wrote: »

Yes, but a once in a century event could become a once in a decade event due to climate

Says you. Conjecture, Your Honour.

Do you know how many ice storms Houston has had over the past century?

Oneiric 3

Akrasia speaks of disruption of the 'polar vortex' as if it was something abnormal. It isn't, and we have only to look back even at relatively recent history to know this. Historic long term winter averages in this country for example are lower than present precisely because colder temperature occurred more frequently as Arctic & Continental air masses were more commonly occurring, of which can only really occur when the PV is in a weakened state.

But remember one of the last times the PV was in full swing? (2013-2014), that too was blamed on climate change and a sign of things to come.

The temperature gradient between the Pole and the Tropics is of course weaker this year, at least in the Pacific region, because 'La Nina' is still ongoing.

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1362777504067559425

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1362132902583091200

Pa ElGrande

JCX BXC wrote: »

A 7000% increase on energy prices on struggling people?

Oh America, you never fail to impress me.

Studies backed by computer generated models said otherwise.

Note: A heat pump only works when the outside temperature is above freezing. It can’t heat a home in harsh winter weather and Texans in the South don’t have to worry about this drawback or did not until last week.


Converting homes to all-electric heating would save money and slash emissions in the Lone Star State, a study finds.
November 22, 2019

Electric heat pumps will become cleaner as more zero-carbon wind and solar power are added to the ERCOT grid. By the end of 2018, 30 percent of the energy used on the ERCOT grid was from carbon-free sources.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, three in five Texas households already use electricity as their primary source of heat, much of it electric-resistance heating. Rhodes and White did not model the energy use and peak demand impacts of replacing that electric-resistance heating with much more energy efficient heat pumps.

“Most of the electric-resistance heating in Texas is located in the very far south, where they don’t have much heating at all,” Rhodes said. “You would see savings in terms of the bills there because these heat pumps definitely operate more efficiently than electric-resistance heating for most of the time.”

source

Before we go pointing fingers at America, Our infrastructure is designed to work in fair weather conditions. Ireland did not fare so well during the March 2018 cold, the death rate from flu increased to levels seen with Covid, animal deaths increased and the water infrastructure needed many repairs. Ireland is rolling out SMART meters and the pricing system for electricity will change the pricing is modelled around fair weather conditions not winter extremes.

The much-anticipated rollout of smart electricity meters in Ireland will be a game-changer for Ireland’s energy customers and suppliers alike.

For customers, the ability to monitor consumption in real time could help many households to improve their energy efficiency, lower their carbon footprint and reduce their bills.

Smart meters should also bring peace of mind when it comes to energy costs, as well as the convenience of not having to submit meter readings manually.

Suppliers will no longer have to estimate bills and might see the roll-out of smart meters as an opportunity to introduce innovative price plans and pricing structures.

source

https://www.comicsands.com/conspiracy-snow-fake-texas-melt-2650723426.htm

Nabber

Maybe someone more educated on the Polar Vortex (PV) can clarify this

Strong PV leads to a higher chance of milder winter for Europe/N. America. A milder winter is an indicator of AGW effect.

A weak PV increases the chances of a colder winter in Europe/N. America. A weak PV is an indicator of AGW effects.

What is the goldilocks zone that would qualify as a non AGW impacted winter?


I know I'm over simplifying this. But is there an element of hedging going on? In that all roads lead back to one. Any deviation from that is an anomaly.