Saturday 16th Jan

carq

Going to go with Daly tiger in the handicap @20/1 - 5 places.
Price seems too big for a horse who won a handicap 2 months ago.

Chatham st Lad looks a worthy Fav but willing to go with the above at the prices.

del roy

got this sent via email

SATURDAY, 16TH JANUARY

2:25 Warwick – Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A wide open renewal of this Grade 2 for novice hurdlers and it could be a chance for LORD OF KERAK to reverse the form of his three-length novice hurdle defeat over 2m to Adrimel given that rival now carries a 3lb penalty. The Olly Murphy-trained horse improved plenty for this step up to two and a half miles last time out and with the well-beaten third in that race, Oneupmanship, pushing the smart, well-handicapped Sizable Sam all the way in a handicap last weekend, the form was boosted nicely. Murphy’s charge has confirmed stamina for this test, unlike many of his shorter-priced rivals, deals with the very soft ground well and looks to be steadily improving as he goes along, so in an open contest, he holds much better claims than his chunky available price of 12/1 suggests.


bettrends Advice: LORD OF KERAK 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes,

Coral)





3:00 Warwick – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
All the tipsters seem keen on Captain Chaos here and you can certainly see why with the blinkers back on after coming down to a workable mark, but it’s a 2lb higher mark than when second last year and the record of horses aged in double figures is relatively poor in this race over the last decade – 80% of those who have finished in the first four in the last ten runnings of the Classic Chase have been aged nine or younger. Therefore, the Alan King-trained NOTACHANCE (pictured above left) looks the one to beat. He showed that he’d come on plenty for his first season chasing when winning really impressively on his first run of this season at Bangor. That contest was a genuinely high-quality race over three miles on soft ground and, from a mark of 132, he defeated subsequent Welsh National second The Two Amigos, Boldmere, Coo Star Sivola, Acting Lass, Tidal Flow, Kilbricken Storm, Yalltari and today’s reopposing pair of Captain Chaos and Django Django (pictured above right), who were both pulled up a long way out. It was a proper race, run at a good gallop and the selection jumped, travelled and finished his race off like a proper good horse, well worth his place at that level and higher. He’s entitled to have come on for that first run of the season, he’s still got plenty of scope for improvement, he stays well, he has no problem with deep ground and he’s had a nice break to reach top form since that November win, so it’s absolutely possible that a 7lb rise in the weights is manageable for this progressive chaser. Given a clear run and some solid jumping, there’s Notachance that this young horse won’t be involved in the finish.
bettrends Advice: NOTACHANCE 1pt E/W @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor – 4 places)

Slattsy

Thought Captain Chaos was a somewhat obvious choice tomorrow at Warwick. Placed in the race previously and 'out of sorts' since without headgear. Its back on tomorrow, down in the weights and on ground he likes. All points to him being layed out for this.

del roy

Lady of aran 2pts e/w 12/1


Kempton Saturday…
7.20 Lady of Arran currently 14/1
The deeper I look into this race the more I like Lady of Aran, I know backing a filly can be tricky but her course form is nothing short of amazing. At 14s she is the outsider of the field and in my opinion is the one to be on e/w.
Lady of Aran is currently rated 82. Georgia Dobie rides and takes off 5lb reducing that to 77. She has ridden the horse four times resulting in form figures of 9441 The ninth finishing position was in a 12 runner listed race at Newmarket where she was only beaten 8 and 1/4L. The race was run on soft ground which would not have suited Lady of Aran.

Let’s have a close look at her form
Lifetime form 4212/7934201032/2937441958-
Allweather form 421223229358
Kempton 7f form 122323
That’s six races at Kempton, winning one and 2nd or 3rd in the other five races never beaten further than two length’s in any of them. I mentioned the jockeys 5LB claim as it takes the fillies mark to 77. Lady of Aran has raced at Kempton twice when rated under 80 resulting in form figures of 22 beaten a shd and a hd
Jockey Georgia Dobie has not got a great win record at the track 147/19 (12.93%) however 44 places (29.93%) is decent indeed.
Trainer Charlie Fellows last five year record at Kempton is 173/18 (10.90%) and 56 places (32.37%) is a decent strike rate .
trainer is a co owner, keep an eye on the betting n way should this be 14/1

Timeform’s conclusion for tomorrows race…….C&D winner but didn't enjoy the rub of the green when last of 8 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 25/1) 20 days ago. Not ruled out. *** 3 stars

Andrew00

Mullins sends impressive Galway winner Grangee over to market rasen tomorrow and she looks a good bet at 13/8 imo. Should have to much for that field

del roy

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 – McCoy Contractors Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

13/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
13/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/13 – Aged 7 years-old
9/13 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/13 – Winning favourites
Two For Gold (3/1) won the race in 2020


2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Aged 5 years-old
6/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 6)
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 8)
Mossy Fen (7/2) won the race in 2020


3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/15 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/15 – Officially rated between 129-140
11/15 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
10/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/15 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King

Kimberlite Candy (9/2) won the race in 2020
Just one winning favourite in the last 15 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

15/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
12/15 – Officially rated between 126-142
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Winning favourites

Silver Sheen (7/1) won the race in 2020
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey




Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.05 – MansionBet Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track


2.40 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m7f ITV4

Trainer Colin Tizzard has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 18% record riding over hurdles at the track


3.15 – Alan Swinbank mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Willie Mullins, Murty McGrath and Emma Lavelle are previous winners of the race
One winning favourite
All three previous winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last three winners carried 10st 3lbs
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 19% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

stretchaq

Slattsy wrote: »

Thought Captain Chaos was a somewhat obvious choice tomorrow at Warwick. Placed in the race previously and 'out of sorts' since without headgear. Its back on tomorrow, down in the weights and on ground he likes. All points to him being layed out for this.

All over le breuil in this one

Pogue eile

stretchaq wrote: »

All over le breuil in this one

Agreed, and have backed The Hollow Ginge as cover.

Slattsy

stretchaq wrote: »

All over le breuil in this one

How far behind my lad was he in this race last year?

That's the form line I'm working off. At prices I think LB is shocking. That's my take on it.

Plasandrunt

Form has been patchy been Jack Kennedy getting down to 10-03 to ride Or Jaune De Somoza in the Dan and Joan Moore is a good sign and at 33/1 I've had small ew punt.

Also On The Blind Side was hugely impressive last week and I think that 13/8 enhanced price with PP looks a decent price still

The Mig

Considering backing Oscar Elite but can’t bring myself to back a Tizzard horse at the moment

Slattsy

They're doing a great job with Chosen Mate...

supremenovice

The Mig wrote: »

Considering backing Oscar Elite but can’t bring myself to back a Tizzard horse at the moment

Vision des Flos in the 240 is my only bet today, for what its worth. Tizzards are a good training team, just been on a bad spell lately.

The Mig

Lovely shout Carq with Daly Tiger

carq

carq wrote: »

Going to go with Daly tiger in the handicap @20/1 - 5 places.
Price seems too big for a horse who won a handicap 2 months ago.

Chatham st Lad looks a worthy Fav but willing to go with the above at the prices.

Hopefully some people got on

The Mig

supremenovice wrote: »

Vision des Flos in the 240 is my only bet today, for what its worth. Tizzards are a good training team, just been on a bad spell lately.

Yeah the last 12 months

Pogue eile

The Mig wrote: »

Yeah the last 12 months

Absolutely, he has a strike rate of less than 10% since the week before last weeks festival and a terrible Actual/Expectancy rating of .63 over that same period.

pottokblue

Carq a nice winner in the opening post of this saturday thread. Did you play the SCOOP6 today? Its going to be a big one. I played a fantasty Scoop 6 placepart still going into leg 2...

Joe_ Public

Giving Mohaayed a chance in the 14.40 at MR. Didnt get best ride when not far behind the favourite last time out, hopefully be closer up this time out.

carq

No didnt play scoop 6.
Thought the price would get shorter today but it got bigger today if anything.
Got hit with rule 4 because of the withdrawal of the shunter

supremenovice

Pogue eile wrote: »

Absolutely, he has a strike rate of less than 10% since the week before last weeks festival and a terrible Actual/Expectancy rating of .63 over that same period.

I have been giving him the benefit of the doubt for a while now, and his top horses are running below par this season.
But, a bad trainer can't have had the success he's had over the past decade - Cue Card, Native river, Thistlecrack, Fox Norton, Lostintranslation. If he was that bad, he wouldnt half the Group races he's won. But definitely something amiss this season alright. I hope they can turn it around soon

IAMAMORON

I have been backing The Hollow Ginge all season but he is turning into an iffy jumper and the back stretch at Warwick is one of the most difficult places for jumpers in racing. I am having a win only saver just in case he gets his act together but the one I really like is Storm Control who bucked for fun at Cheltenham and then idled up the straight. Not sure if the extra half mile is what he wants but he could just be an eager type that needs to be jumping fences.

In the end I have backed both and also included Captain Chaos in a 3 way combination forecast.

The Mig

supremenovice wrote: »

I have been giving him the benefit of the doubt for a while now, and his top horses are running below par this season.
But, a bad trainer can't have had the success he's had over the past decade - Cue Card, Native river, Thistlecrack, Fox Norton, Lostintranslation. If he was that bad, he wouldnt half the Group races he's won. But definitely something amiss this season alright. I hope they can turn it around soon

Awful tragedy with his daughter dying so maybe he’s taken a step back and it’s Joe training them?

Plasandrunt

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Form has been patchy been Jack Kennedy getting down to 10-03 to ride Or Jaune De Somoza in the Dan and Joan Moore is a good sign and at 33/1 I've had small ew punt.

Also On The Blind Side was hugely impressive last week and I think that 13/8 enhanced price with PP looks a decent price still

OTBS won and JDS placed at 50/1. Had worse days

Joe_ Public

Willie's horse ran ok at market rasen but winner flew past as if he was standing still. Could be a good un.

Positiveways

Gerri Columbe in the bumper at Fairyhouse looked like the second coming in the making, what a performance!!

Looks like trainer Gordon Elliot his trainer thinks that the Cheltenham champion bumper might not be the number one target this year, but regardless he looks another potential superstar for the Elliott team. Sir Gerhard v Gerri Columbe would be a cracker of a race for sure, hope it happens but it might be Punchestown before we see this clash of these two very exciting horses against each other.

NaiveMelodies

Next destination is a tank.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

They're doing a great job with Chosen Mate...

I've looked back at this race. Both Chosen Mate and Entoucas were extremely well ridden.

Grand Annual decision will be tough as both will have a lot in hand but Chosen Mate already a winner so likely to get an extra few pounds from the UK handicaper so can't see him getting away with too much.

Front View is one to watch also and could also end up in the Grand Annual. These handicaps are going to be a nightmare!!!!! FV was one of mine from last year but didn't perform on the day having been backed from huge prices in the weeks before.

NaiveMelodies

Slattsy wrote: »

I've looked back at this race. Both Chosen Mate and Entoucas were extremely well ridden.

Grand Annual decision will be tough as both will have a lot in hand but Chosen Mate already a winner so likely to get an extra few pounds from the UK handicaper so can't see him getting away with too much.

Front View is one to watch also and could also end up in the Grand Annual. These handicaps are going to be a nightmare!!!!! FV was one of mine from last year but didn't perform on the day having been backed from huge prices in the weeks before.

It's mengli khan's to lose

IAMAMORON

I see Eileendover into 10's ( 8's and 7's )now for champion bumper., If she is anything like her granny she should piss in, no stalls either.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

Interesting that they sent one over from Closutton, her rep must have them panicking.

They know what they have to beat now.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I see Eileendover into 10's ( 8's and 7's )now for champion bumper., If she is anything like her granny she should piss in, no stalls either.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

Interesting that they sent one over from Closutton, her rep must have them panicking.

They know what they have to beat now.

Trainer/Owner/Breeder was pretty dismissive regarding Cheltenham, NRNB and hope one of the money men make them an offer they cant refuse is your best hope.

posturingpat

They're not doing all that great a job with Chosen mate when hes almost certainly going to be 10lb above last years mark.

posturingpat

When's the next pertemps qualifier in Ireland?

CORMACREYN

posturingpat wrote: »

When's the next pertemps qualifier in Ireland?

Only two qualifiers for the race in Ireland. One at Leopardstown on 28th December, the other at Punchestown in February. Last year the Punch qualifier was on Feb 19th. Looking at the fixture list I'm guessing it's on Feb 24th this year.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I see Eileendover into 10's ( 8's and 7's )now for champion bumper., If she is anything like her granny she should piss in, no stalls either.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

Interesting that they sent one over from Closutton, her rep must have them panicking.

They know what they have to beat now.

Pogue eile wrote: »

Trainer/Owner/Breeder was pretty dismissive regarding Cheltenham, NRNB and hope one of the money men make them an offer they cant refuse is your best hope.

Confirmed by trainer, heading to Aintree instead.