Probability Question

Hercule Poirot

I'm trying to calculate the probability of getting a player I want in a football game I'm playing online (PES 2020)

There are three groups of players: black, gold and silver - the player I want is in the black group and it states there's a 20% chance of getting a black group player

The black group contains 14 players, but there's only one that I want - I make this a 7% chance of getting that player, if it's one from the black group

I want work out how to calculate the overall probability of getting that one player than I want - it's probably something obvious that I'm missing but any help would be appreciated

I hope I've explained everything properly but feel free to ask questions if there's something that needs to be clarified

Thanks

[Deleted User]

You have to multiply the probabilities so it'll be 0.2 * 1/14 so 1/70.
(Assuming each player within a group is equally likely)

Dave0301

I have it as a 1.4% chance of getting the player that you want.

20% chance of getting a black group player (or 0.2)

14% chance of getting the player you want (or 0.071)

Therefore:

P(A and = P(A) × P(B)
= 0.2 × 0.071
= 0.0142
= 1.42%

However, if you get more players per pack, or multiple players across different packs then it will change.

I think I have done that right, but if not, someone will hopefully correct it!

Hercule Poirot

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You have to multiply the probabilities so it'll be 0.2 * 1/14 so 1/70.
(Assuming each player within a group is equally likely)

Ah sweet, I don't know if each player in the group is equally likely but I assume they are - thanks