Saturday 19th Dec

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:34pm #1

Your Best Bets for the Weekend from the bettrends Team

SATURDAY, 19TH DECEMBER

Haydock 2:40 – Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase

If you’re looking for attritional, this could be the contest of the weekend. Unless you’re at home on ‘Haydock heavy’ and stay all day, I wouldn’t bother here. CRIXUS’S ESCAPE loves it heavy and has already been successful over three miles on very soft ground at Ayr this season, only receiving a 6lb hike in the weights for his easy win over Bigirononhiship, a fellow smart Northern stayer. He gave weight almost all round there and is well worth this step up in class for trainer Gillian Boanas. He’ll be underestimated by many due to his source, but he could well have the last laugh come Saturday at a working man’s price.

bettrends Advice: CRIXUS’S ESCAPE 1pt E/W @ 8/1

Ascot 3:55 – Betfair Exchange Trophy

It’s going to be heavy going here over this two-mile trip, but with Not So Sleepy and Kid Commando in the lineup, there will be no hiding place. Therefore we need a strong stayer over this trip and one who is proven in soft conditions – HARAMBE fits the bill. The 2019 winner of the Greatwood in soft ground from a mark of 137 and a faller at the last, again in soft ground, when well in contention from a mark of 143 in this year’s renewal, the Alan King-trained seven-year-old is well-versed in tough races such as these. Now he’s had a run he’s well entitled to strip fitter and given he cruised through the Greatwood a month ago before coming to grief late on, a big showing is surely in the offing here as long as that fall hasn’t left a mark on him.

bettrends Advice: HARAMBE 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:36pm

More non-runners clipped our wings last week, and with horses we’d put up subsequently winning a week or so later after being taken out of their races (I’m looking at you St Barts…), it’s becoming particularly galling. However, we were a nose from picking up an International Hurdle winner in Silver Streak and another couple of placed finishes were a mild reward for our efforts, but not the winners we’re looking for.

This week, we have Michael White (MW), Eddy Arthur (EA) and Will Urch (WU) at the helm - initials next to the race title denotes who wrote what - and there are six races in focus this week, as there will be next week for Boxing Day’s racing extravaganza and for the New Year action from Cheltenham (amongst others) on the last day of December - a minimum of 18 races to digest over the next two weeks!

Let’s start with this coming Saturday’s action from the rain-soaked tracks at Ascot and Haydock, with an intriguing novices’ handicap hurdle at the Royal venue to kick us off.

Saturday 19th December

12:40 Ascot – Foundation Developments Novices' Handicap Hurdle (MW)
Just a 0-120, but it’s an interesting race and given it’s being held on really testing ground, it’s certainly going to be a tough ask for these novices so we’re looking for a strong-staying, heavy ground-loving horse who can handle this decent standard of competition at this level.

Fawsley Spirit, Soyouthinksoagain, Freddy Fanatapan, Reallyradical and Echo Du Large all have big question marks hanging over their heads with regards to whether the ground or the trip (or a combination of both!) so even though a few of those don’t carry much weight and are unexposed, plus have some good recent form, I’m relatively happy to look elsewhere for this race as the amount of pace on (or at least horses that like to lead or race prominently) looks to be more than enough for this to become pretty attritional.

The race over C&D on November 20th could well be a big pointer towards this race, with Tide Times winning by a neck over Enqarde (who oddly contests the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock on Saturday), with Silver Nickel two lengths back in third. Hatchet Jack was incidentally ninth there, beaten 26 lengths, and is now down to a mark 17lb below the 120 he raced off when he was a two and a half length fifth in this very race in 2017. However, this season was his first taste of racing since May 2018 and it’s clear that there have been problems with this horse, therefore however well-handicapped he seems, it may just be that he’s lost the ability he used to have.

Back to the race in question and Tide Times ran out a brave winner despite being a little keen to start with, much like Silver Nickel. Both were prominently placed and stayed well with three and a half and one and a quarter lengths respectively back to Nicky Martin’s Jog On – more about this horse later. Both showed a good attitude but perhaps Tide Times had that little bit more pace than the Seamus Mullins-trained horse in the end and that made the difference. Here, they re-oppose on 6lb better terms for Silver Nickel and the heavy ground could also help to close the gap, so the third in that race is possibly the one to be with here in the rematch if he can jump a little better than he did there.

However, I mentioned Jog On and he wasn’t beaten far in that race, but he then went on to be beaten further (six and a half lengths), two weeks later in a similar race at Exeter. Admittedly, that was a smaller field and a slower-run race, but as a result the winner of that contest, HUNTSMANS JOG, comes into this race with an advantage over those two on the numbers, especially considering his subsequent 6lb rise in the weights is offset by Liam Harrison’s 7lb claim. The Fergal O’Brien-trained six-year-old can actually race off what is effectively a 1lb lower mark here and given the easy way he travelled through that race combined with the good attitude he showed to battle away from the in-form Crossley Tender, who was on a four-timer and stays longer than the proverbial mother-in-law, while giving him 7lb, means he’s surely got a massive chance in this. Crossley Tender has since finished a good third in a heavy-ground handicap chase at Exeter from an 8lb higher mark, so the form has been well and truly franked. HUNTSMANS JOG is an interesting horse as he looked pretty useful when with Don Cantillon in bumpers and novice hurdles, placed behind the likes of Barbados Blue, I K Brunel, The Con Man and Eva’s Oskar, before he was sent Point-to-Pointing, where today’s jockey, Liam Harrison, rode him to two victories over three miles, one in soft ground, before he was bought by his current owners from Cantillon and switched over to Fergal O’Brien’s yard. He’s gone back hurdling now and was a decent second on his first run this season and first for 229 days, at Lingfield where the test arguably wasn’t enough for this dour stayer, so it was no surprise to see him improve a lot on that last time out. He’s still well-handicapped thanks to his jockey’s claim and I’m surprised he’s as big a price as he is here, even though this race is just slightly up in class.

A couple who could be a threat to the selection both won last time out, including Poppa Poutine, who has a 6lb rise in the weights to contend with after a decent winning performance on his handicap debut over three miles at Southwell. He beat Heavey there by almost two lengths and it was an effort that fully justified the 6lb hike. However, he did have the run of the race from the front there, something he definitely won’t get easily here, and this contest will also be run on by far the heaviest ground he’s encountered so far, so there are reasons to suggest that he may not be able to back that effort up.

Ex-Pointer, Blame The Game, may not have encountered three miles under rules yet, but looks to have been relatively leniently assessed for his novice hurdle win at Plumpton at the start of November, so may well be nicely handicapped up in trip on his handicap debut for Chris Gordon. He defeated Linelee King over two and a half miles on soft ground, but that rival was eight lengths behind Enqarde, the same horse who was narrowly beaten by Tide Times at this venue, so perhaps the form isn’t particularly strong. Still, this horse is massively unexposed and while he doesn’t have the experience of many, he certainly has the potential for better and this full brother to Spiritofthegames could progress as the season goes on.

bettrends advice:
HUNTSMANS JOG 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Betfred – 4 places)

12:55 Haydock - Back And Lay On The Betfair Exchange Abram Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed Race) (EA)
There is a standout piece of form on offer in this Listed contest which sees Rayna’s World at the head of the market. Trained by Phillip Kirby, she was rated in the mid-80s on the Flat before being sent hurdling last season. She ran solid races on her first two starts over obstacles last year, finishing placed on both occasions but no match for two useful prospects. Firstly, over two miles in November she was third behind the Nicky Richards-trained Ribble Valley, before she was stepped up to two miles and three and a half furlongs where she finished second to Ruth Jefferson’s Clondaw Caitlin. Rayna’s World showed promise in those races but was then sent off at odds of 100/1 in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, she outran her odds to finish strongly for third, albeit fifteen lengths behind Willie Mullins’ impressive Concertista. This season the five-year-old had a run on the Flat before she was an easy winner of a Hexham maiden at odds of 1/5 over two and a half miles. After getting off the mark over obstacles she was tried back over two miles at Hexham last month and could only manage to finish runner-up in the Class 4 novice. The extra distance at Haydock should suit Rayna’s World, but it remains to be seen if she is as good as her Cheltenham effort suggests and she may just be vulnerable this weekend up against some unexposed rivals.

Her opponents include Farne who looked a different mare last month off the back of a break and a switch of stables. She had been a useful bumper performer back in the 2018/19 season for Neil King, finishing third in a Listed contest at Sandown and then fourth in the mares’ Grade 2 at Aintree’s Grand National Festival. However, she was well-beaten in her first two races over hurdles and subsequently switched yards to Noel Williams. After not running since February, Farne was well-backed and returned to form at Lingfield at the end of November, travelling smoothly when winning the maiden over two and a half miles on heavy ground. The six-year-old remains with potential, especially given her bumper form, and she could well again back up in grade on her second start for her new trainer.

However, trainer Michael Scudamore runs two in the race and he can land the Listed prize with NADA TO PRADA as the testing conditions at Haydock should be in her favour. In her four career starts she has developed an excellent strike rate, winning three times from her four races which began with victories in a point-to-point and a bumper (both coming with heavy in the going description). The mare then made her debut over hurdles at Hexham in October where she finished runner-up, although the form has been boosted since by the winner, the Dr Richard Newland-trained On The Wild Side, following up on his next start. NADA TO PRADA was sent off as an odds-on favourite for her next start a month later having had wind surgery and she duly got off the mark in the maiden hurdle at Ffos Las. The ground that day was heavy and she enjoyed the conditions, making all for an easy twelve-length success over the two-mile trip. The way that she went through the race suggested that she would have no problem stepping up distance (her point-to-point win was over three miles) and it could even bring about further improvement. NADA TO PRADA is up in class at Haydock but she is lightly-raced and can continue her progress on Saturday with conditions to suit.

bettrends advice:
NADA TO PRADA 1pt WIN @ 10/3 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1:15 Ascot – Injured Jockeys Fund Graduation Chase (WU)
Owners Mr Simon Munir & Isaac Souede have done well here in recent years. Both Top Notch and Kildisart have won this for trainers Ben Pauling and Nicky Henderson respectively. The 2018 winner Kildisart has been a top performer for Ben Pauling and was only touched off a head by The Conditional in this year’s Ultima at Cheltenham. The same ownership send Caribean Boy who looks to have an extremely good chance. Opposing him are three other runners who make up a compact field and it is set up to be a very tactical affair.

Commanche Red is the outsider of the three for Chris Gordon and comes here on the back of a few poor runs. His last win was at the Boxing day meeting at Kempton where he won a Novice chase by 9 lengths. He beat future Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Chase winner Simply The Betts by a considerable distance and it was evident he was extremely well handicapped. A 13lb rise firmly stopped him in his tracks and his last three runs have been comparably poor compared to his last win. A distant third at Kempton, followed by being pulled up on his seasonal reappearance, has not installed much confidence that he can mix it with the two market principals. His last run saw him fitted with first time cheek pieces but it failed to bring about the desired improvement and he finished a well tailed off fourth. He does get 3lb from the field but on official ratings must find 10lb with Itchy Feet and I cannot see that happening. His last run saw him dropped to a mark off 145 and he could be running here to get a few more lb taken off, before targeting a big handicap.

In front of Commanche Red that day was Dashel Drasher who beat him by six lengths giving him 3lb. It was Dashel Drasher’s seasonal reappearance after wind surgery over the summer. It was very testing conditions that day and for a first run back and I can forgive him. He made a few poor jumps at quite crucial times and when you look back at some of his form from last season he could go close here. Last seen finishing seven lengths clear of a some mid-130, pushing 140 horses, there is certainly a lot of fun to still be had with this horse. This field might be slightly too competitive for him off level weights but I’d love to see him thrown into a handicap with a mark of around 140, as I think he could be very hard to beat.

The two market principals are Itchy Feet and my fancy Caribean Boy. Itchy Feet has so much raw ability but I feel like his jumping lets him down too often in these big races. He unseated in the Marsh Novice’s Chase last year and then was let down by his jumping again when seen finishing second to Imperial Aura on his last start. He failed to win the Old Roan on his seasonal reappearance carrying top weight although that was a good effort you can’t help but feel he should be winning races like that, if he wants to win this. I also think he wants a pace to aim at, which he isn’t guaranteed to get here with only three other runners lining up.

His market rival on the other hand jumped supremely well, to win going away at Newbury on his latest start. CARIBEAN BOY raced keenly for the first part of the race but settled into it and jumped like he was born to do it. It was only his third start over fences and he is still very unexposed. The slight step up in trip should be no problem and conditions will suit. I’d love to see him go from the front and put them all under pressure with his brilliant jumping. Behind him on his last start was Fiddlerontheroof, who gave the form a boost when running well at Ascot on Friday, just beaten by Allart’s superior turn of foot. CARIBEAN BOY is only six and I think he could make into a top Graded performer for Nicky Henderson.

bettrends advice:
CARIBEAN BOY 2pts WIN @ 5/6 (William Hill, BetVictor)

1:50 Ascot – ‘For The Love Of Racing’ Handicap Chase (WU)
There are few races this weekend more competitive than the 1:50 at Ascot on Saturday. Despite the competitive nature of the renewal, there is one I think has a great chance for a yard that loves a handicap winner. In the last couple of years there has been a variety of winners, from top weighted horses like Hell’s Kitchen in 2018; to last year’s winner Espoir De Guye, who carried less than 11 stone. There doesn’t look to be a specific trend to help find a winner, so looking at the form of all the runners is key. Last year’s winning trainer Venetia Williams, is again represented but this time by Gardefort. He brings a very different profile into the race than that of last year’s victor. You must go back three years to find the last time he won, which was at Ascot off a mark of 139. He is now lining up here carrying only 10 stone and with a mark off 124 but his recent form does not constitute with that of a winner. He’s been off the track 19 months and barring a miraculous resurgence, I can’t see him featuring anywhere near the winner.

Drumcliff wears the silks of J P McManus and gets claimer Miss A B O’Connor, who takes off a valuable 5lb. He is not the most consistent performer and struggles to string together one good performance after the other. His last performance was a very respectable effort and it’s possible that the first-time cheek pieces helped him to put his best foot forward. He got a 1lb rise for finishing three lengths behind Espoir De Guye just being outpaced after a bold front running performance. He clearly likes Ascot and if he could put some better performances together I would consider him more but his lack of consistency puts me off him as a selection.

Paul Nicholls sends his traditional runner to a big handicap on a Saturday in the shape of Saint Sonnet. He only ran last weekend in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham and such a quick turnaround is intriguing. He didn’t get the clearest of runs and was badly hampered before being pulled up. Nicholls must fancy his chances to run him so soon after but I would worry that it may come too soon. I think the market could be the best guide to his chances on the day, so I couldn’t have him as the selection for this race as it stands. Smarty Dancer represents the P J Hobbs yard who are in the best form they have been in all season. He ran over this trip at Ascot on his season reappearance but was no match for the two in front, who have both either won or run well since. He is certainly an intriguing runner but I’d like to see his jumping improve before backing him in such a competitive field, where I’m sure jumping will be crucial.

Gary Moore runs two here, Not Another Muddle and Early Du Lemo. The latter is the second favourite after a neck second to Darebin at Sandown last time out. They drew 19 lengths clear off the third placed horse and you couldn’t knock the performance, especially when giving Darebin just under a stone. He did get 5lb for that but I think he could be good enough to overcome it. He’s only raced over this trip once and unseated on the first fence so he is very much the unknown quantity in the race. His stable companion hasn’t been seen since pulling up at Cheltenham in March. He does have a good record fresh and beat Darebin in very similar circumstances than when his stable mate lost. He’s never raced at Ascot before but with such a good record fresh he is one to watch, especially going forward.

The market favourite is Saint De Vassey for probably the most in form jockey this season. David Bass has been having a lot of success this season on whatever he rides. His claims are further boosted by the trainer T Symonds coming into some fantastic form. He has been operating at a 30.77% strike rate in the last 14 days and is plus £12.50 to a £1 stake. He won his last start in emphatic fashion but did get quite an easy time of things in front where they went a steady gallop. I did like the way he jumped his fences and kept finding when asked the question a long way from home. Horses in behind haven’t done much to boost the form but he did pull a long way clear. Despite him having such good claims he has become quite short and I’d want the security of each-way price.

BENNY’S KING is my idea of the winner and I think he is primed for this race. He will have needed the run at Aintree on his last start and will have come on a lot for that effort. He is right near the top of the weights but is no stranger to big weight carrying performances. He went close last at Ascot in January in almost identical conditions to those tomorrow and lost out by a neck. Now only 2lb higher I fancy his chances to grind this out on what will be very testing ground. The Skelton duo have already had a winner at Ascot on the Friday and will hopefully get Benny’s King over the line in front too.

bettrends advice:
BENNY’S KING 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (Betway, Betfred, Boylesports - 4 places)

2:40 Haydock – Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (MW)
This is undoubtedly going to be pretty brutal and there will be no hiding places on the notorious ‘Haydock Heavy’ ground, so any horses with doubts over trip or ground will be quickly found out.

Salty Boy has always found being competitive at 3m beyond him previously, so this looks a very tough ask, especially on heavy ground, while Pop Rockstar was stuffed last time at this venue and even though Kevin Brogan takes a handy 7lb off his back here, all his better form over fences has come on a sounder surface. Sam’s Adventure did better than Pop Rockstar in that same race here but was beaten a long way and may need a drop in the weights before he’s ready to go in, so he’s passed over too.

Roll Again heads the weights and if he can put in a similar performance as his last time out win at Ludlow where he made all, then he’d be in with a chance. However, both his wins in Britain have come at Ludlow from marks of 129 and 135, so the evidence suggests that this will be a step too far for Venetia Williams’ horse from a mark of 141.

Right down the bottom of the weights is an interesting contender in Enqarde, who will be having just his third run for Dr Richard Newland and his first over fences in this country after coming over from France in the summer. He was a close second to Tide Times in a novices’ handicap hurdle over 3m at Ascot on his first run here from a mark of 115, complete with Cillian Leonard’s 7lb claim, but then made good on that promise next time out when putting his huge amount of experience to good use and taking a Newcastle novice hurdle over 2m6f. The handicapper has, however, taken no chances at all with this horse and judging by his best efforts in France, he’s handicapped right up to his best on a mark of 124, so will need his jockeys’ 7lb claim to make a big difference again. He should be fine on the ground and looks to stay well, but this is a really big jump up in class and even though he will be receiving the best part of two stone from the horses at the top of the weights, I’m not sure he’s good enough to take advantage, despite his decent start to life over here. He does also have a propensity to race keenly and if he does that here, he won’t be getting home.

Another interesting one here is Highest Sun, who was last seen finishing a fair fourth off a 2lb higher mark in a 2m6f Newbury handicap chase. The Colin Tizzard-trained six-year-old already has plenty of experience under his belt over a variety of trips, but it could well be that three miles is his best trip over fences with his only win in that sphere coming at Plumpton where he defeated Diablo De Rouhet in receipt of 10lb in heavy ground. In all honestly, he’s a very hard horse to weigh up, but his best runs have come over this kind of trip with plenty of cut in the ground, so given his mark is now at its lowest since he won a Chepstow handicap hurdle back in February 2019, he’s definitely one to note, even if this kind of race is a new endeavour for him. However, the Tizzard yard is in pretty horrid form at the moment (2-43 in the last fortnight) so that’s a cloud over this horse’s head.

No clouds reside over Hill Sixteen’s head though and the seven-year-old has been in superb form since joining the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable, hacking up in a stunning performance over two and a half miles over fences on heavy ground at Ffos Las before winning bravely over hurdles on quicker ground than ideal. He has, however, been lumped with a 12lb rise in the weights for that Ffos Las win and now, well up in class, that could tell over a trip he’s never actually won over before in soft or worse ground. His race win a month ago clearly showed a well-handicapped horse, but it was a poor race in which none of his rivals fired at all, so he’s definitely still got plenty to prove in a race like this, so his price looks very short.

Another who was hit with a sizeable rise in the weights after a wide-margin win on their seasonal debut was Sojourn, who made a mockery of 129 when bolting up over 3m2f on heavy ground. He stays and he loves this surface, so there are no questions there, while Roll Again and Sam’s Adventure were both well-beaten in that race so despite the rise in the weights, you’d think that Anthony Honeyball’s charge would absolutely have the beating of them despite his 11lb hike. He now races of 140, which is probably a fair rise on the face of things, but it asks a massively more difficult question of this unexposed seven-year-old in a race which contains much stronger opposition. Second and third in that Carlisle race were modest horses rated 109 and 117 respectively and with his comfortable conqueror from a 3m handicap chase at Chepstow last December, Dominateur, now rated 141, it looks as if he might have been given all he can handle by the handicapper. He’ll definitely find this harder, despite his profile suggesting he could continue to improve.

Crixus’s Escape could well be in the same boat after being raised to a career-high mark of 136 after defeating Bigirononhiship at Ayr on his last start. The Gillian Boanas-trained seven-year-old will love the ground and stays really well, so should go well enough, but to defy this mark in a race as competitive as this is a question much tougher than one he’s ever been asked before. This is, though, just his sixth start over fences, so he’s entitled to improve again and even though the handicapper might think he’s got him where he wants him, this Northern-trained horse is probably better equipped than many for the task that faces the field, so don’t sleep on him.

However, the selection here is another who will absolutely relish a dour staying task and one who could well be very nicely handicapped on his best form. The Peter Bowen-trained LORD NAPIER is a massive price here for one who has been slowly brought along in his chasing career and seems now to be getting the hang of things in a big way. His first two runs over inadequate trips and on quicker-than-ideal ground were likely to ensure he learnt how to jump quickly enough and out of his comfort zone, so it was no surprise to see him put up a cracking staying-on effort back over three miles on heavy ground last time at Chepstow, where he only failed to give the winner 10lb. That winner could well have been an extremely well-handicapped horse in the shape of Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early, who made all on his chasing debut after a couple of promising hurdle runs behind Blackjack Kentucky and Sending Love. He was a Point winner so was made for chasing and it was interesting that Fry started him off in a handicap, proving that they knew he was well-handicapped. LORD NAPIER was slightly outpaced turning for home there and a mistake at the fourth last made his task harder, but he stuck on manfully to take second from Thomas Macdonagh on the run in. This even tougher test will be right up his street, as it was when he won the Grade 3 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown back in February 2019 on very soft ground from a mark of 134. He destroyed the field on that occasion by nine lengths in a big race and I just wonder whether this has been the target for this horse all along – his mark of 132 and his last run certainly suggests that a big performance is not far away. He’s a big price for a horse with that kind of form in the book and a steadily progressive profile over fences.

bettrends advice:
LORD NAPIER 0.5pts E/W @ 11/1 (Sky Bet – 4 places)

Ascot 3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) (EA)
Current favourite for this Grade 3 handicap is Buzz who arrives on the back of an impressive win over course and distance last month. Previously rated as high as 99 on the Flat when trained by Hughie Morrison, he has taken well to hurdles for Nicky Henderson and has shown improved form this season stepping out of novice company. Having won his first two races over obstacles at the beginning of the year, Buzz failed to get involved when sent off as favourite for the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February, finishing fourth. However, after a break he has got back on track in his two runs to start off the current campaign, putting up a good effort to finish third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. The six-year-old may have been in receipt of a lot of weight that day but he was only beaten by two proven Graded performers in Sceau Royal and Ballyandy, a result which saw him well-backed for his subsequent start over Saturday’s course and distance. He would go on to land the odds in impressive fashion in the Class 2 handicap last month, winning easily by seven lengths to take his record over obstacles to three wins from five races. Buzz is up 11lb for that success so looks well worth a step up in grade this weekend, but he will need to continue his improvement if he is to defy top weight in this competitive-looking contest.

Nicky Henderson actually runs two in the race and TIME FLIES BY looks to be a very interesting contender. He has always been held in high regard by his leading trainer and made a winning debut last year when starting off in a Class 2 bumper at Cheltenham. He then finished runner-up in a usually informative Listed contest back at the same course before making the switch to hurdling. TIME FLIES BY was pitched straight into the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle for his first start over obstacles at this Ascot meeting last year, a race which is a trial for the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival. He did not manage to feature in the Grade 2, finishing third of four, but running in the race showed that connections think a lot of his ability and he was kept in the same grade for his following start when he finished fifth at Cheltenham in January. TIME FLIES BY was not seen on the track again until last month where he was sent off as strong favourite for an Ascot maiden over two miles and three furlongs. However, he raced very keenly that day so in the end did well to finish runner-up to the Paul Nicholls-trained Danny Kirwan. The drop back in trip on Saturday looks a good move for TIME FLIES BY and he could be well-handicapped off an opening mark of 129 on Saturday. Henderson won this race with five-year-old Brain Power back in 2016 and he could be able to repeat the feat in this year’s renewal.

This looks to be a competitive race though and Benson has to be respected as he bids to make it a four-timer this season. Dr Richard Newland looks to have found the key to this talented five-year-old as he was not the easiest of rides early on in the year. However, he showed that he possesses a lot of ability when in the process of running a big race on his hurdling debut in the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown in February, holding every chance but unseating his rider two from home. This season Benson has enjoyed being ridden with patient tactics and he has racked up a hat-trick of wins, including a Listed success back at Sandown last month. He had been raised 10lb for that victory but could go well again in his current mood. Another progressive five-year-old in the line-up is Arrivederci whose trainer Jonjo O’Neill will be hoping to add another major Saturday win to his name after his good run of form in recent weeks. Arrivederci made a winning comeback run at Wetherby in October and was then sent off as favourite for a Class 2 handicap at Haydock last month, where he was in contention before falling with four hurdles left to jump. The drop back to two miles should not be a problem for him, but he will need to find more upped in grade at Ascot.

bettrends advice:
TIME FLIES BY 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (William Hill - 6 places)

NAP: CARIBEAN BOY (1:15 ASCOT)
NB: HUNTSMANS JOG (12:40 ASCOT)

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:38pm

Two chances of emulating Raya Star at Ascot on Saturday

By Geoff Lester Posted December 17, 2020 In Latest News 0
December 17

Alan won the big Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Ascot in 2011 with Raya Star, and, being doubly-represented in Saturday’s renewal, courtesy of Harambe and Isolate, he is hopeful that we might again get lucky.

Recalling the 2011 race, Alan said:”Raya Star won off a mark of 134, and, while Harambe has an 8lb higher rating, Isolate is 6lb lower, and he is a progressive sort, having won his last two races, at Taunton and Leicester.

“Obviously, this is a jump in class, but he coped with the soft ground at Leicester and with the prize money so good it looks well worth taking a chance.

“Harambe won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last year, and, while he might not have won when going back in search of a repeat last month, he would have been placed had he not fallen at the last. He was a bit sore afterwards, but is fine now, and, though the plan is to go novice chasing, for which he has schooled well, we thought we’d roll the dice one more time before he tackles fences.”

We also run Label des Obeaux in the three-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock, and, assessing his prospects, Alan added:”He needed his first two runs and they were always taking him off his legs at Market Rasen, so this trip on testing ground might be more up his street, and the fact that he’s been dropped 5lb this season might help in what looks a competitive race.”

Our sole runner on the Flat on Saturday is Scarlet Dragon, who rather than tackling Listed company again, shoulders topweight in the mile and a half Betway Handicap. He has been a great servant for Henry Ponsonby’s team, but, while he has run 40 times for 11 different jockeys on the Flat, this is the first occasion that he has had Ryan Moore on board.

Obviously, winning at Royal Ascot this year was Scarlet Dragon’s finest hour since he came to Barbury, and Alan said:”He’s had a wind operation since he last ran at Newbury in September and has returned in very good form. He just wasn’t getting home in his last couple of runs, so we sent him to Ben Brain, who discovered there was an issue there. Let’s hope putting that right will eke out a bit of improvement.”

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:39pm

Paddy Brennan: “She handles conditions, so a big run is on the cards”

Paddy Brennan - 4 hours ago

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Two Saturday rides at Haydock for Paddy Brennan
Haydock
12.55pm
Farne
She was a very good bumper horse a couple of seasons ago, when she had Listed-placed form in the soft, but she showed little in two hurdling starts last term. But she was back to her old self when winning a maiden hurdle for me in heavy ground at Lingfield on her reappearance, on her first run for Noel. Obviously, this is a much stronger race but we know her bumper class and we know she handles very deep ground, so I think a big run is on the cards.

3.15pm
Goodbye Dancer
He is clearly not in the same form as he was either side of last Christmas, when winning at Cheltenham and unlucky not to follow up on New Year’s Day when falling at the last, but he showed a bit more last week. He didn’t jump as well as he could have done there but it was a better effort all the same, and he has been dropped a bit more in the weights. If he returns to anywhere like he form of his Cheltenham performances last season, then he has an obvious chance, but he clearly needs to show us more than of late.

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:40pm

Dan Skelton previews his Saturday runners at Ascot
admin | 18.12.2020
We have five runners at Ascot on Saturday, starting with Soyouthinksoagain (12.40), a winner at Stratford last time, in the novices’ handicap hurdle.

I think the track will suit him and the longer trip definitely does. He won on soft ground so I don’t think the going will be a problem, unless it got absolutely desperate.

We then have Bennys King (13.50) in the 2m3f handicap chase. He obviously stays a bit further than this but given how soft the ground is going to be, it will be a real stamina test. I wanted a horse that stayed the trip well and he will definitely do that.

I have to give him a fair chance in this because he’s in great form at home and he’s run well at Ascot before.

Roksana (14.25) contests the Long Walk Hurdle. I’ve had this in mind since Wetherby and I have been very happy with her. She gets 7lb for being a mare. The ground is fine, she goes in soft, and the weight concession gives her a fair chance.

Paisley Park and Thyme Hill are going to be hotly fancied but with them having to give her weight I have to think she will have a part to play as well.

Ardlethen (15.00) runs in the Silver Cup. He gets 10st 6lb in this after a nice run in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time. I think softer ground suits him and three miles is perfect. I have to think he has a fair chance as well.

I had four entries in the £100,000 handicap hurdle and whittled them down to West To The Bridge (15.35) as he handles real heavy ground and stays at least two and a half miles. I think it will turn into a war of attrition and I believe he can outrun his odds.

Dan

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:41pm

Tom Scudamore “Night Edition not without an each-way chance”

The Coral ambassador previews his rides ahead of Saturday’s Ascot action

Ascot 14.25 – Thistlecrack
Thistlecrack looks fantastic, and although he’s now a 12-y-o, he’s actually got very few miles on the clock since his second place behind Many Clouds in the 2017 Cotswold Chase, and his only one really disappointing run since then was when he was pulled up in last year’s Gold Cup. Clearly on his last run [in November 2019] we’ve got a bit to find with Paisley Park, and in what looks a really strong Long Walk, I think Thyme Hill is a worthy favourite and the one to beat.

David Pipe runs Main Fact, who has been an absolute revelation winning nine in a row. He’ll love the conditions, and although this is a big step up in class and Fergus Gillard can’t claim in this Grade 1, I can see him being there or thereabouts. As for Thistlecrack, I do think he’s capable of running a big race, but most of all it’s just exciting to see him back on the track.

Ascot 15.35 – Night Edition
Night Edition was a very good second at the Cheltenham Festival [in the Boodles], so he won’t mind the big field here, but it will be hard for a juvenile stepping up to a competitive race against older rivals, although I don’t think he’s without an each-way chance.

Tom

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:43pm

Aidan Coleman

DECEMBER 18, 2020
Ascot Preview: Saturday 19th December
Image Credit: Racing Post

Paisley Park and Time Flies By my two rides at Ascot
I head to Ascot on Saturday afternoon for two rides.

It’s the last weekend fixture before Christmas so fingers crossed we’re heading into Boxing Day with a winner.

Here’s my thoughts.

Paisley Park | 14:25 Porsche Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
He ran a great race at Newbury on his first run of the season and we’re on 3lb better terms with Thyme Hill now.

It’s another competitive race but he won this two years ago and course-and-distance form is also massive in these types of contests.

He’s the highest rated horse in the field so he’s the one they have to beat and if he runs his race, I’m sure he will go well.

Time Flies By | 15:35 Betfair Exchange Trophy (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)
This is his first run in a handicap and he’s still a maiden over hurdles.

He’s getting better with each race and is still only five, so he’s still got plenty of time to improve.

It’s a big field and there’s some in-form rivals here, but he’s low in the weights and can hopefully go well if dealing with the hustle-and-bustle of the race.

Enjoy the racing.

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:45pm

Richard Johnston

It was lovely to win the Albert Bartlett Trial at Cheltenham on Saturday with Make Good. On ratings he had as good a chance as any, it was just if he would see the trip out. John McConnell won the Cross Country Chase the day before so we knew his horses were in good form and he was fairly confident he would stay.

You need a tough horse for these three mile novice hurdles because a lot of them are often a long way off the finished article. Make Good knew what he was doing, he’d had plenty of runs on the Flat, and he travelled nicely through the race. I think they were pleasantly surprised how well he won and I’m sure he’ll get an entry in the Albert Bartlett now. You need a really battle hardened horse for that race and I’m sure they’d love to bring him over.

I’ve been fortunate enough to have had some luck for John over the years, he’s a very good trainer. He only tends to bring ones over from Ireland if he thinks they have a good chance, he certainly doesn’t bring them for the fresh air.

It was a shame Zanza fell in the handicap chase, he’d jumped and travelled really well up to that point. He got in a little bit tight at the third last and knuckled on landing. It’s a hard fence as you’re coming downhill and he’s a novice who is still learning. It was too far out to know what would have happened but I was happy with the way he was travelling.

He’s had four runs already this season so he’ll have a small break now and we’ve always thought better ground would suit. You’re likely to see him again in the spring when I’m sure some of those decent handicaps will be on his agenda.

St Barts was great at Newbury on Wednesday, he’s a progressive staying chaser. He’ll do well this year but he’s the type who will improve even more over the next few seasons. I didn’t really want to make the running on him but he stays well so I wanted to make use of that. It was only his second run over fences so you’d have to be very pleased.

FREDDY FANATAPAN – 12.40pm Ascot
I won on him at Exeter last month when he did it nicely. He’s a bit of a character and this is a step up in grade, but if he can reproduce it he will go close. The second has won at Wetherby since so the form is strong and you certainly couldn’t rule him out.

SMARTY WILD – 1.50pm Ascot
I was down at Philip’s [Hobbs] on Wednesday to school him and he was in fine form. He just got taken off his feet at Wetherby last time where his inexperience caught him out. A stiffer track and slightly slower ground will help him, and he ran well here on his first start over fences at the end of October.

This is a very competitive race but he’s on the upgrade and it’s a bonus that Philip’s horses have really come into form. I thought he’d go very close at Wetherby and he’s definitely on a reasonable mark.

THYME HILL – 2.25pm Ascot
We’ve been excited about him all through the summer, you just never know if they’re going to be good enough to make that step up from novice to open company. He wasn’t far behind Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper and was then unlucky in the Albert Bartlett so he’s always run in the top races and his form is rock solid. Having a horse like him to ride certainly makes getting up at 4.30am a lot easier!

I schooled him on Wednesday and he was foot perfect. He came out of the Newbury race really well and Philips’ been delighted with him. I think he’s the one they all have to beat but it’s a strong renewal and he will have to put up a very good performance to win.

Paisley Park was giving us weight at Newbury and we know how good he is. Roksana was impressive at Wetherby and is a previous Festival winner, while Main Fact is a massive improver and no-one knows how good he is yet. It’s a very good race but I wouldn’t swap Thyme Hill for anything else. He’s a very straightforward horse and has always shown the right kind of attitude. That is vital in a race like the Long Walk because from Swinley Bottom to the line it’s really hard work. You need a horse that puts his head down and gives you everything – he’s that kind of horse.

OAKLEY – 3.35pm Ascot
He’s in very good order and I was really pleased with him at Wetherby on his first run back. He was a decent novice last season and he’s maturing all the time. He’ll definitely have come on for that run.

This is wide open handicap and you will need a horse that stays very well. I’m sure he will go two and a half miles at some point, so stamina won’t be a problem. He should cope with the ground and he has strengthened up over the summer so he should have a decent each-way chance in what is a fiercely competitive race.

del roy · 18-12-2020 4:47pm

Saturday’s Big Race Stats, Trends & Trainer Pointers

Part 1

Ascot

3pm: Silver Cup Handicap Chase

10/111, 28p

9/10 had 10 or fewer UK/IRE chase runs (9/69, 21p, +135)

Other

Ran at Ascot LTO: 0/21, 4p, Aintree 0/9,0p
Trainers (prev 10 renewals)

N Henderson: 2/9, 2p
A Honeyball: 2/3, 2p
X1: V Williams, D Bridgewater, P Nicholls, N Mulholland, R Buckler, S Smith
*

3.35: Betfair Exchange Trophy

11/187, 39p

11/11 had 0-2 runs in prev 90 days (3+ : 0/43, 6p)

11/11 had 2+ runs in handicaps (0-1: 0/38, 8p)

11/11 had 2-7 runs in handicap hurdles (0-1: 0/55, 13p; 8+ : 0/35, 0p)

11/11 had 0-2 handicap wins (3+ : 0/41, 4p)

11/11 ridden by non-claiming jockeys (claimers: 0/58, 9p)

11/11 ran in a handicap LTO (non handicap: 0/31,9p)

Trainers (prev 11 renewals)

G Elliot: 2/5,3p
D Skelton: 2/8,3p
N Henderson: 2/17,5p
X1: H Morrison, H Fry, P Hobbs, A King, O Murphy
P Nicholls: 0/17,4p, D Pope: 0/15,1p
*

Haydock

2.05: C2 Handicap Hurdle

Trainers (prev 10 renewals)

X1: L Wadham, NTD, C Williams, C Longsdon, A King, H Daly, S Smith, E Williams, Jonjo O’Neill
2.40: Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase

10/107, 31p

10/10 aged 8 or younger (9+ : 0/32, 3p)

Trainers (prev 10 renewals)

D Pipe: 2/5,2p
C Tizzard: 2/2
X1: Dr Newland, R Hobson, V Williams, C Mann, S Coltherd
S Smith 0/11,4p, NTD 0/6,1p
*

Part 2

Ascot

3pm

Those with 10 or fewer UK/IRE chase runs has been a good place to focus and that leaves four in here…

Espoir De Guye H3, Ardlethen, Enfant Roi, Fauburg Rosetgri

Trainers (to have won race 10 years/with runners)

The Conditional H1
Espoir De Guye H3
Regal Encore
Beware The Bear H2
*

3.35

looking at a profile of 0-2 runs in prev 90 days, 2+ runs in handicaps, 2-7 runs in handicap hurdles and 0-2 handicap wins, leaves 11/11, 11/62 runners, 20p, +111. Four hit that profile…

Oakley, Arrivederci, Kid Commando, Harambe

Trainers (to have won race 11 years, with runners)

Buzz H2, Time Flies By,
Oakley
Lightly Squeeze
Isolate, Harambe
Not So Sleepy
West To The Bridge H3
*

Haydock

2.05

Trainers (to have won race prev 10 years/with runners)

Our Power H2
The Last Day
2.40

Trainers (to have won race prev 10 years/with runners)

Roll Again
Engarde H2
Highest Sun
*