whats in store this coming year?

Just as retail has opened up again and people can resume spending as normal, a thought occurred to me yesterday. Should we be planning ahead for 2021, with the impending double barreled Covid / Brexit recession that is being predicted.

What is the economic climate going to be like down the line, mid way through 2021. Would it be a good time to hang on to a few quid in case people need to go abroad for work, rather than take out a car loan for example?

With Dorothy Perkins and Debinhams going under, surely there will be reverberations felt in Ireland, as they probably wont be the only retail giants to go under. I was listening to a David McWilliams podcast and he compared the UK to Argentina, which at one stage was the world's sixth largest economy, and its bordering neighbour Uruguay experienced a boom through beef exports, only to feel the fallout of Argentina's demise. In other words are we in for a rough ride?

Stevieluvsye

spook_cook wrote: »

I think 2021 is going to see the start of an economic boom the likes of which we haven't seen in a decade.

The aggressive savings rate all over the western world, the pent up demand for holidays/services/experiences etc, the coming vaccines which will give way for these to happen.

It'll be a very much two sided boom though. We have spiraling debt, a whole wave of businesses gone and more.

I think that is very much a fair assesment of what i think will happen. There will be taxes raised but not dramatically. The day of the high street is over but people will continue to spend online.

I don't see emigration hitting the highs of the last economic crash as the government i hope will continue to borrow at manageable levels to keep the economy moving

SEPT 23 1989

the roaring twenties mk2

Potential-Monke

All I know is there is an inevitable argument between me and my employer when they decide to end WFH and want me to come it. I'll argue that I can't come in unless I have a guaranteed table/chair/pc/etc that no one else will use, which they can't because like most businesses they try and squeeze as many people into the 1 building as possible, doubling up on people using everything! So yeah, that's all I'm worried about, but I don't plan very far ahead anyway.

As for recession, I no longer have a mortgage and my credit rating probably can't go any lower so unless businesses suddenly stop needing network support, I should be alright employment wise (we cover large multi-branch and franchise companies, mostly involved in the provision of services and goods that remained open during lockdown).

Ubbquittious

COVID-21

Strumms

Once there is a vaccine approved and there is a confirmed timeline as to its commencement... things will go crazy... I’d say firstly almost every seat on an aircraft into and out of the country will be booked fast... Irish abroad coming home to be with family and friends and those of us desperate to do the same or just a get away holiday and change of scenery....

Be interesting to see what prices the airlines and travel agents are charging.

Harry Palmr

I see an immense amount of shagging and a spike in both births and abortions (and STD's).

Xtrail14

Corona 20-21-22 etc made in chyna

Xtrail14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I see an immense amount of shagging and a spike in both births and abortions (and STD's).

Riding of your first cousins is not allowed regardless of the 5km restrictions.

Wibbs

jmlad2020

CBDC's (Central Bank Digital Currencies) will become more mainstream. China are already trialing a Digital Yuan as are other countries. Money is set to change drastically in this decade including our very own Euro.

Bitcoin and other digital privacy coins will prove ever more popular, likely surging in price.

And personally I'd love to see the Introduction of a 4 day work week this decade.. some companies already are which is promising.

Alf Veedersane

Dan Bars, hopefully

Strumms

Strumms wrote: »

Once there is a vaccine approved and there is a confirmed timeline as to its commencement... things will go crazy... I’d say firstly almost every seat on an aircraft into and out of the country will be booked fast... Irish abroad coming home to be with family and friends and those of us desperate to do the same or just a get away holiday and change of scenery....

Be interesting to see what prices the airlines and travel agents are charging.

definitely, the airports will become very busy. I was pricing flights to Spain a few weeks ago out of curiosity, and they weren't that much more expensive than this time last year.

JustAThought

Unlike Argentina and Some tragic south american countries I don’t think we’re
going to have the collapse of the euro, world war two levels of hyper-inflation and our entire economic system become worthless with people starving trying to buy loaves of bread with suitcases of worthless money. What IS shocking that there has been so little written or spoken about these South American countries - apart from a shocking magazine article in the Observer or Guardian magazine a few years ago it has been almost unreported by western media.

Re the Arcadia group who allegedly employed 250 staff in Ireland it is terrible to see those jobs lost and knock on effects but I really don’t think its as important to the small local economy as the OP thinks - they were struggling & nobody was shopping there already for a reason - projecting financial ruin for the masses is a bit of an overrection!!

Ten of Swords

Pretty sure the only way 2021 could top 2020 would be a full scale nuclear war, or an alien invasion!

Neyite

spook_cook wrote: »

I think 2021 is going to see the start of an economic boom the likes of which we haven't seen in a decade.

The aggressive savings rate all over the western world, the pent up demand for holidays/services/experiences etc, the coming vaccines which will give way for these to happen.

It'll be a very much two sided boom though. We have spiraling debt, a whole wave of businesses gone and more.

Oh good.

I was probably one of the few that didn't 'lose the run of myself' during the last boom and subsequently get all my debts wiped when it all went tits up. So this time around I'm going to go stone mad with NY shopping trips and channelling my inner Kardashian.

McGinniesta

I dare say we havent seen the back of this covid bollixology.

You cant kill a bad cold.

begbysback

jmlad2020 wrote: »

And personally I'd love to see the Introduction of a 4 day work week this decade.. some companies already are which is promising.

We get paid for 5, yeah?

Potential-Monke

begbysback wrote: »

We get paid for 5, yeah?

Yes and no. Yes, you wouldn't lose income, no because your workweek is now 4 days. From what I've read about it, either that or 5x6 hour days end up with increased productivity. I'd love it. But I have a handy night job on a 6-week 12 hour shift pattern, more nights off than on. And not very stressful. Still would prefer reduced overall working hours though.

corner of hells

A possible army of mutants from the Covid vaccine, something like what lives in the sewers in Futurama.

Personally, I'd like see whoever's makes HulaHoops Smokey Bacon , cop on and put a decent amount in the bags.

JasonStatham

Wibbs wrote: »

I think that dog's gonna get that guy's crotch.

Ouch.

jmlad2020

begbysback wrote: »

We get paid for 5, yeah?

You can work 6 days a week if you like fella.

I'll take 4 any day.

ILoveYourVibes

Do you want me to get the tarot cards out and tell you what i really think as in what the voices are telling me?

Or do you want me to nod and say the normal stuff?

El Tarangu

This prompted by an item on Joe Duffy - I'd say anything related to weddings will go through the roof once everything gets going again.

There will be a lot of pent-up demand from people waiting until any restrictions on numbers is gone; once that happens, there will be a hape of weddings for the next six months.

El Tarangu

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Do you want me to get the tarot cards out and tell you what i really think as in what the voices are telling me?

Honestly this explains a lot about your posts to date.

ILoveYourVibes

El Tarangu wrote: »

Honestly this explains a lot about your posts to date.

Oh no it doesn't ..that is me TRYING TO LOOK SANE ! :pac:

Really i am MUCH worse!

Church on Tuesday

Better times.

US economic meltdown. A staggering in the EU markets. The problems of debt financing (within companies) coming to a head, and the inability for companies to meet their interest payments, along with the various governments attempting to bail companies out with further national debt payments, but ultimately failing for most. A hefty rise in closures, and a rise in unemployment across all sectors.

I see a major recession throughout the world. Enjoy your Christmas.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

I see a major recession throughout the world. Enjoy your Christmas.

OECD says that apart from Argentina and the UK things should be back track by the end of 2021.

LETHAL LADY

My cousin is a partner in a GP practice in the south of Ireland. They're preparing for a massive surge in Covid cases come the new year, the likes of which we haven't seen yet.

Another family member working with the HSE is involved in the building of separate pods in A&E departments (not separate Covid wards) throughout the country to cope with the anticipated surge in Covid cases come 2021.

Scaremongering post it may seem, but it certainly has made me think when I was told.

On a lighter note my son had predicted that Man Utd will win the Champions League in 2021👀

Eduard Khil

Pineapple Daim Bars Lemon Cheesecake Twix and a huge recession that leads to WWIII

FGR

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

OECD says that apart from Argentina and the UK things should be back track by the end of 2021.

Oh dear..and we all know what happened last time Argentina wanted to take attention away from their stagnating economy. The UK might appreciate the distraction this time, too.

Montage of Feck

jmlad2020 wrote: »

CBDC's (Central Bank Digital Currencies) will become more mainstream. China are already trialing a Digital Yuan as are other countries. Money is set to change drastically in this decade including our very own Euro.

Bitcoin and other digital privacy coins will prove ever more popular, likely surging in price.

And personally I'd love to see the Introduction of a 4 day work week this decade.. some companies already are which is promising.

Technological utopianism is a dangerous lie.

FGR

FGR wrote: »

Oh dear..and we all know what happened last time Argentina wanted to take attention away from their stagnating economy. The UK might appreciate the distraction this time, too.

Hyperinflation, not to mention the €80billion hole thats left in the EU's books because the UK were their 2nd largest net contributor.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I see a major recession throughout the world. Enjoy your Christmas.

This is my gut feeling, although I'd love to believe otherwise. There are pubs, retailers and restaurants in Ireland that will never open again because of Covid, and the same in the UK except they also have Brexit to worry about, and then so do we.

This last year has been a game changer, and things will never be the same some for better, some for worse. There will definitely be a transitional period post vaccine, where countries and economies try to decide how to resume life.

LETHAL LADY

LETHAL LADY wrote: »

My cousin is a partner in a GP practice in the south of Ireland. They're preparing for a massive surge in Covid cases come the new year, the likes of which we haven't seen yet.

Another family member working with the HSE is involved in the building of separate pods in A&E departments (not separate Covid wards) throughout the country to cope with the anticipated surge in Covid cases come 2021.

Scaremongering post it may seem, but it certainly has made me think when I was told.

On a lighter note my son had predicted that Man Utd will win the Champions League in 2021👀

I was wondering would this happen. If a person gets vaccinated, does that mean they are no longer a carrier or spreader of Covid19?

I think it is a mistake for people to directly compare the covid19 pandemic with the Sapnish flu, and expect this current wave to be the largest with a follow up small wave, before it eventually burns out.

Are they expecting the surge in 2021 to be caused by the opening up for Christmas?

Gregor Samsa

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I was wondering would this happen. If a person gets vaccinated, does that mean they are no longer a carrier or spreader of Covid19?

Yes, if you’re vaccinated, as long as the immune system’s response to the vaccine is sufficient, you would no longer be a carrier or spreader. Your immune system would kill off any virus you did catch before it infects and replicates.

Problem is, there’s not going to be many people vaccinated this side of Christmas. And those that do get it will be the very vulnerable and those caring for them. So the opening up at Christmas has the potential to see an upsurge in January.

As to how that manifests depends really on how people behave during the lifting of restrictions. I guess it would be prudent for the health services to prepare for the worst, although exactly what will happen depends on a lot of factors.

branie2

Hopefully normality

Gregor Samsa

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Yes, if you’re vaccinated, as long as the immune system’s response to the vaccine is sufficient, you would no longer be a carrier or spreader. Your immune system would kill off any virus you did catch before it infects and replicates. .

No.. Fact is, nobody knows the truth of this because it hasn't been proven. Too many claims of what should happen, and not enough accurate data of what will happen.

JasonStatham

A few more lockdowns probably.

growleaves

More and increasing authoritarianism unless or until people are prepared to repudiate it.

Blondini

Threats to food security
Obesity and diabetes crisis
Polio
New Jedward album

Gregor Samsa

I’m not insightful enough to make any real predictions, but I’m hoping for something approaching normality come July/August. All depends on the vaccine rollout, uptake and success.

I’d say some of the worst of the economic damage will be offset by a surge in spending when that occurs - I really don’t think the economic crash of the early 2000s is anything to go by this time, because the causes and circumstances are so, so different. We don’t have a credit crunch this time, we actually have a massive amount of money locked away on deposit.

I do think there will be massive societal changes coming out of this. Working from home is one. My company has already announced an entire WFH scheme for the post-Covid time. It’s voluntary, and they’re keeping the office for those who want to work from there, but they’re shifting to a “work when you want, where you want” model, that will have both advantages and disadvantages to the company and to society at large (assuming this becomes common practice in some sectors).

I also wonder will we see some amount of people continue to use masks in public, even after the widespread threat of Covid 19 is gone. Somewhat similar to some Asian societies.

Strumms

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Yes, if you’re vaccinated, as long as the immune system’s response to the vaccine is sufficient, you would no longer be a carrier or spreader. Your immune system would kill off any virus you did catch before it infects and replicates.

Problem is, there’s not going to be many people vaccinated this side of Christmas. And those that do get it will be the very vulnerable and those caring for them. So the opening up at Christmas has the potential to see an upsurge in January.

As to how that manifests depends really on how people behave during the lifting of restrictions. I guess it would be prudent for the health services to prepare for the worst, although exactly what will happen depends on a lot of factors.

I think the upsurge in cases in January will be significant unfortunately.

With the combination of a vaccine imminent and Christmas on our doorstep and people fed up...significant number of peoples psychological setup and mindsets will be in a kind of “fûck it, I’ll do what I want, I’m sick of this shît I’ll do what I want and fûck everyone else” mindset.... .... which is a pity, as we are approaching the final stretch, the end is in sight if people just resisted that selfish inclination... keep people alive and well and stress and pressures off our Heath system and employees who have been through the ringer already.

Out shopping it’s been quite notable this is happening already. A lot of thoughtless and careless behavior.

We could be in for a challenging 3-4 months.

By the latter part of the summer it will be party time though.

stopthevoting

The description for the 2021 Old Moores Almanac says 'Our psychic talks about predicting the pandemic'. That seems to imply there was a prediction of it in the 2020 edition. I wonder was that the case.

oldmooresalmanac com/product/buy-old-moores-almanac
The 2021 edition of The Genuine Irish Old Moore’s Almanac features its usual mix of scarily accurate predictions and thought-provoking articles. Our psychic talks about predicting the pandemic and what it’s like to have the gift of sight. Plus, we interview the Irish artist who created the world-famous Che Guevara poster. We’re also looking back at our Celtic heritage in two special features. The first of these recalls the ancient Irish Olympics while the second explores the marvellous stories told by our ancestors about their gods. Lots more besides, including the spread of Irish dancing across the globe, the ancient art of dowsing, straw bale gardening and horoscopes for the year ahead. And, of course, we have no doubt that our psychic’s 2021 predictions will be as remarkable as ever.

stopthevoting

stopthevoting wrote: »

The description for the 2021 Old Moores Almanac says 'Our psychic talks about predicting the pandemic'. That seems to imply there was a prediction of it in the 2020 edition. I wonder was that the case.

oldmooresalmanac com/product/buy-old-moores-almanac
The 2021 edition of The Genuine Irish Old Moore’s Almanac features its usual mix of scarily accurate predictions and thought-provoking articles. Our psychic talks about predicting the pandemic and what it’s like to have the gift of sight. Plus, we interview the Irish artist who created the world-famous Che Guevara poster. We’re also looking back at our Celtic heritage in two special features. The first of these recalls the ancient Irish Olympics while the second explores the marvellous stories told by our ancestors about their gods. Lots more besides, including the spread of Irish dancing across the globe, the ancient art of dowsing, straw bale gardening and horoscopes for the year ahead. And, of course, we have no doubt that our psychic’s 2021 predictions will be as remarkable as ever.

Any mention of a no-deal Brexit?

seamus

I really, REALLY want to know what whiskey_galore thinks is in store.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=111747266#post111747266

sbsquarepants

seamus wrote: »

I really, REALLY want to know what whiskey_galore thinks is in store.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=111747266#post111747266

Good call there whiskey!


Got any lucky numbers for tonight do you?:D

Aglomerado

stopthevoting wrote: »

The description for the 2021 Old Moores Almanac says 'Our psychic talks about predicting the pandemic'. That seems to imply there was a prediction of it in the 2020 edition. I wonder was that the case.

There was a prediction of a pandemic on the 2019 Almanac, November page I think. Parents had a copy and we were looking at it a few months ago. I haven't seen the 2020 edition myself.

stopthevoting

Aglomerado wrote: »

There was a prediction of a pandemic on the 2019 Almanac, November page I think. Parents had a copy and we were looking at it a few months ago. I haven't seen the 2020 edition myself.

That's interesting, I did wonder about that. In 2018, Nationwide had a programme about the 100th anniversary of the Spanish Flu, and one of the people interviewed said that there will be another pandemic in the years to come, not that there "may be", but that there "will be". Also there was the 2011 film, Contagion.


When I was young my grandparents used to have Old Moores Almanac. I remember reading the predictions in the new editions and wondering if any of them would be right, but I never remember looking back at any old editions to see if they were accurate. Maybe they were already thrown out during the year.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

I really, REALLY want to know what whiskey_galore thinks is in store.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=111747266#post111747266

That whiskey is giving him a powerful insight!