National Hunt 2020/21 trainers/Jockeys Views

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Alan King 26/11/20

Newbury is all set-fair for two-day Winter Festival
By Geoff Lester Posted November 26, 2020 In Latest News 0
With the only rain forecast for Newbury this week failing to materialise, and no more than a shower or two expected before the curtain goes up, all is set-fair for our two day Winter Festival with the g0od to soft patches drying out all the time.

However, it is not all about Newbury, as with underfoot conditions being similar all around the country just now, Alan has opted to take on Champion Hurdle Epatante in the prestigious Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle with the revitalised Sceau Royal.

Alan said:”Sceau Royal has thrived since his wind operation, winning the Welsh Champion and the Elite Hurdle. He’s staying over hurdles for the time being and has earned the right to have another crack at a race in which he finished fourth back in 2016.

“Sceau Royal is in good order and worked very pleasingly on Saturday, and as it looks as though he should get the decent ground that suits him we are all looking forward to the clash with Epatante. He could still possibly switch back to chasing in the spring, but he’s doing all right over hurdles at the moment and the two-mile chase division looks pretty strong at present.

Alan sends a few horses up to Newcastle with Sceau Royal, including The Devils Drop. Alan said:”He’ll be all the better for his reappearance at Cheltenham, where he understandably tired from the back of the second-last flight. That was his first run since he won three handicaps in a row in the summer of 2018 and he should show the benefit in the novice handicap chase. I know this is his first race over fences in Britain, but he was second in an Irish point-to-point as a four-year-old.

“The introductory juvenile hurdle is worth £15,000 so we are having a go with Son Of Red, who has been progressing on the Flat. He won on the all-weather at Southwell last month and has schooled well.”

It certainly makes a change for the Hennessy (oops, Ladbroke Trophy) to be run on good ground, but if it was soft as it often is then Potterman would not be taking his chance.

Alan added;”He’s fresh and well after his close second in the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton and he did a good piece of work on Saturday. I hope this stiffer test will suit him, but I also know this will be a hugely competitive race.

“He has done us proud through the summer and could be one for the Scottish National or the bet365 Gold Cup when he returns from his winter break in the spring.”

“Canelo won at Aintree on the day Potterman ran at Wincanton and he’ll bid to follow up in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Chase at Newbury. He has gone up 8lb and is tackling a better race, but the cheek pieces helped him last time and this slightly longer trip might also eke about a bit more improvement.

“Lord Lamington hated the ground at Cheltenham last time, but he needs to come down in the weights and has a stiff task in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle, while Midnight Ginger makes a quick return in the Listed mares’ novice hurdle. She appears to have come out of her win at Fakenham well and, though that was only last week, there are not that many opportunities to gain black type.”

Alan is also hopeful that Didonato will run a good race in the mares’ novice hurdle at Doncaster. “She ran very well on her hurdling debut at Huntingdon and she’s come forward from that. I’ve always felt the more racing she gets the better she’ll become,” said Alan, who also sends Masaccio up to Town Moor. He is a big, scopey horse who makes his debut in the bumper.

We also have a frantic Friday with plenty of runners at Newbury and Doncaster. Our Paddy Power Gold Cup hope Fidux missed Cheltenham due to the soft ground, but with the weather holding up well he’ll have one more run before his winter break in the two-and-a-half-mile chase at Newbury on Friday.

Alan said:”Fidux won a decent race at Market Rasen at the end of his summer campaign, though he’s crept up the handicap and is now on a career-high chase mark.

“I hope William H Bonney will be spot on for his chasing debut in the novice handicap. He schooled well on Monday, having summered well, and he has needed both runs over hurdles this term.

“The novice hurdle is the target for Es Perfecto, who won on his debut over hurdles at Warwick,. He was running a fair race when he fell at Exeter next time and has seemed fine since.

“Royal Ascot winner Coeur De Lion starts back over hurdles in the three-mile handicap. His biggest problem as a hurdler has been the handicapper , and, although he’s come down to a mark of 131, he may still be a few pounds too high.

“Our other Newbury runner is Loverboy, who ran okay on his comeback at Wetherby and is probably better than that as they took out a few hurdles, which wasn’t ideal for him.”

Of our Doncaster runners, Alan said: “The Unit made an encouraging return at Wetherby, but I need to be careful about the ground for him as that comeback run was his first for 18 months and he wouldn’t be risked on anything quick.

“I’m hoping for better luck with Jaboticaba in the two-mile chase at Doncaster. He got stopped in his tracks when a horse fell in front of him at Wincanton. Tom Bellamy was right to pull him up as there was no way he was going to get back into the race. He’s come out of that fine, has run well here before and shouldn’t mind the good ground.

“Santon is a big baby of a horse who will improve with more experience in the novice hurdle, while Nina The Terrier is a likeable filly who’s really started to please me in the last fortnight and makes her debut in the bumper.”

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Richard Johnston 27/11/2020

Saturday
KALOOKI - 12.45pm Newbury
We were thrilled with him at Newbury last time and hopefully he will have come on a bit from that. He’s got a good cruising speed but he also stays well and I expect the race to suit him. He’s a big horse who has taken time to mature but he’s going the right way and we hope he can continue to progress. I think he’s the one to beat and my best chance on Saturday.

JACAMAR - 1.50pm Newbury
He won a couple of starts ago at Aintree but then got beaten at Carlisle on very soft ground. The return to a sounder surface will help his chance, but it’s a very competitive handicap and Tea Clipper will be tough to beat. I rode him a few times last season and he’s a very smart horse who will also enjoy the decent ground.

LA BAGUE AU ROI – 3.00pm Newbury
She had a wind op before Wetherby where she didn’t run badly on the soft ground. We hope she will come on for that as some horses often improve in their second run after having their wind done when they realise they can breathe again. She loves good ground and won two nice novice chases round here a couple of years ago.

I don’t have any worries about the trip, she’s a bit older now. If she can bounce back to the form of her novice chases, when she beat Lostintranslation and Topofthegame, she could be very well treated. I schooled her on Friday morning and she seemed in great form. It would be lovely to win it again and fantastic if she could bounce back to form in a race like this.
As you’d expect it’s a very open race and you can make a good case for plenty of them. I won on Aye Right over hurdles last year and he’s taken to fences very well. He’s a second season novice and those horses have a great record in the race. He’s still on the upgrade and I can see him running a big race.

ZANZA – 3.35pm Newbury
He’s had two runs over fences and we’ve been pleased with how he’s taken to them. He ran a nice race behind Allmankind at Warwick where he was outpaced down the back but stayed on strongly up the home straight. The novice chase rules meant they weren’t able to change his mark and with some decent horses behind, if he can translate that form to a handicap he must have a good chance

3.15pm Newcastle – Rehearsal Chase
Whatmore has come out of Ascot really well. He got a bit of a fright over the first few fences but ran a very good race in the end. He hung a bit left so going left-handed at Newcastle should suit him. He looks to have a decent chance.

Sunday
GARDE LA VICTOIRE, 2.28pm Leicester
He ran a nice race at Hereford on his reappearance. He’s getting older these days and I’m sure he looks after himself a little bit. He will have improved from that and must go there with a very strong chance in a veterans’ race. It’s my only ride of the day and hopefully it will be a worthwhile trip to Leicester.

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Dan Skelton discusses Saturday’s runners, including Ardlethen in the Ladbrokes Trophy
admin | 27.11.2020
We will be busy at two meetings on Saturday with Newbury being the main fixture of the day where the marquee race is the Ladbrokes Trophy.

Ardlethen (15.00) will be our representative. He has had a run. It was a very competitive intermediate chase that he ran in and I thought he ran okay. He didn’t trouble the principals but on ratings he probably wasn’t entitled to.

He is much better off in a handicap, although having said that this is probably the most competitive handicap of the whole year, let alone the winter.

We know we are biting off a lot but I think the trip will be fine, the ground is fine, he has a low weight and he has a run under his belt. So there are a lot of positives.

He hasn’t shown the form of some of the others but that’s why he is near the bottom of the handicap. I’d like to think he will go and run very well.

On the same card we have Captain Chaos (13.15) in the Peter O’Sullevan Chase. He’s been struggling for a bit of form recently.

Hopefully he can spring off this better ground and can go and run nicely so we can start rebuilding his season because it just hasn’t happened yet.

Flash The Steel (13.50) was unlucky last week when he fell. It was a weird fall, he jumped the hurdle fine, just didn’t land at Haydock. He reappears quickly.

He schooled in the week, jumped nicely, he’s fresh and well. I thought he was going to be competitive at Haydock, I think he can be competitive here.

We have two in the 2m handicap chase. Marracudja (15.35) is coming down to a more realistic mark after the handicapper battered him last year.

It’s not looking like he is going to jump in and win but last time was definitely a step in the right direction despite a mid race blunder.

Hatcher (15.35) should like the ground and the flat track, as he didn’t really like Cheltenham last time. But he does have the highest mark of his life to contend with.

We have one runner at Bangor, Supremely Lucky (12.15) in the beginners’ chase. Tristan Durrell takes 7lb off him.

He rode him in the Badger Beers but he probably didn’t stay that trip at that grade. He’s back in much calmer waters here and I would like to think he has a bit of a chance.

Sunday
Midnight River (13.58) will be our only runner. He runs in a novice hurdle at Leicester. He carries good form from Cheltenham.

He won his first start and was second at Cheltenham so I think he will go very well on Sunday.

Dan

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Aidan Coleman

Newcastle Preview: Saturday 28th November

I ride Epatante in the Grade One Fighting Fifth
I have a trio of rides at Newcastle on Saturday afternoon.

I’m excited to ride the Champion Hurdler Epatante in the Grade One Fighting Fifth Hurdle.

Let’s hope we can end November on a high with a winner or two.

Here’s my thoughts.

Epatante | 14:05 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
She’s a high class horse and is the Champion Hurdler, so looks the one they have to beat. I rode her last year at Newbury and she went onto improve hugely, winning two Grade 1’s. She’s up against some good horses but has the 7lb mares’ allowance and hopefully she can get her season off to a winning start.

Ewood Park | 14:40 Watch Off The Fence On attheraces.com EBF ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle
The form from his bumper is working out well and he was running a good race before unseating on his hurdles debut. Hopefully he will have learnt from that experience and can go well with a clear round.

The Butcher Said | 15:15 Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed)
He was running a good race at Cheltenham before a slight mistake at the second last, but he’s won twice earlier this season. This is his first run in a handicap over fences and he’s not too high in the weights, but it’s a competitive race.

Enjoy the racing.

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Tom Scudamore

Tom Scudamore: “It’s always worth doing ten stones for a good horse”

Newbury 12.40 – One For The Team
One For Team would have been second to Kalooki at Newbury last time but for a mishap at the last, he wouldn’t have beaten the winner but he had jumped OK until that point, he certainly showed enough to suggest he’d taken to chasing.

He has some decent novice hurdle form as well, finishing third behind McFabulous in the Persian War. He’s got a little bit to find on official ratings, he’s won at Newbury over hurdles and he could easily surprise a few people here.

Newbury 15.00 – Cloth Cap
The Ladbrokes Trophy is one of the classic races of the season as far as I’m concerned. When I was growing up the big five were the Mackeson, Hennessy, King George, Gold Cup and Grand National, and having been lucky enough to win this race before, I really appreciate what a big deal it is.

Cloth Cap is a lovely ride to pick up this year. I’ve had a handful of rides for Jonjo [O’Neill] over the years, and have ridden for owner Trevor Hemmings a bit, and being able to do ten stones here has got me this ride.

I’d probably get down to this weight a couple of times a month, I’ve had a few days to prepare for it, so it won’t be too much of a struggle, and of course when it’s to ride a good horse it’s always easier doing the weight!

Often when a horse carries ten stones, they end up out of the handicap – that isn’t the case here, it’s his proper mark for getting into this race. He comes here off the back of a good third behind Frodon at Cheltenham, he’s got his ideal conditions here, probably for the first time since his third in last season’s Coral Scottish Grand National, and as I say, getting in on that low weight gives him a major chance.

As you’d expect for such a good race there are plenty with chances, but not one in particular I fear. Newbury is such a fair jumping track, it really is the ideal course, and I think Cloth Cap has a cracking chance.

Newbury 15.35 – Moonlighter
My final ride is Moonlighter for Nick Williams, and in contrast to Cloth Cap, we carry top weight here.

He ran a cracking race at Exeter [behind Greanateen in the Haldon Gold Cup] and I think he’ll be even happier around Newbury. He’s won over fences here and going left-handed perhaps just suits him better as well, he does seem more comfortable going left.

I respect Venetia’s horse [Ibleo] but Moonlighter’s Exeter form looks the strongest on offer here and I think he’ll take a lot of beating.

Tom

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Joe Tizzard: “Copperhead has a massive chance if you ignore his last run”

It has been dire for the owners for the last month. We don’t even encourage the owners to go because of it, so the news that crowds will start to return to racecourses is fantastic news.

This is a social sport, and an entertainment business, so we need to get people back at the tracks.

The news of a vaccine and the start of a return to normality has given everyone a glimmer of hope. I’m all for things starting to happen again, in a controlled manner. The sport needs it.

I think Racing as a whole has done a fantastic job for the last six months. We’ve managed to keep the show on the road, our owners have shown amazing patience and understanding, and we can be very proud of our industry and everyone in it for making it happen.

Saturday runners
13.15 Newbury – Highest Sun
I was a bit disappointed with him around Hereford. I thought he would run a really big race but he never really got into a rhythm. Whether it was the track, always on the turn going right-handed, it was too sharp for him. He then just kept galloping at the end and wasn’t beaten that far.

Newbury is where he’s shown his best form. He ran well behind Champ there last year. This is an ultra-competitive race but we think he is on a mark where he should be competitive in one of these reasons. He should have improved sharpness-wise from his first run and will strip fit, so there are no excuses for him here.

15.00 Newbury – Mister Malarky & Copperhead
Copperhead is a horse that we’ve had in mind for this race even through last season, but then he took a heavy fall at the Festival and had a very disappointing race at Wetherby first time up. But he came back from that last run not quite right, so we know the reason for that.

He has to put those two things behind him. He schooled really well last week and he is working very well and we think we’ve sorted out what was amiss at Wetherby. If you ignored those last couple of runs he would have a massive chance. He has plenty of ability, he’s won around Newbury and this trip will suit him really well.

Mister Malarky will love the ground. His prep run was far better than in the same race twelve months ago, and last year he jumped the second last upsides the winner in this race and then didn’t quite get home. But the better ground will help with the trip, and he’s a year older and stronger.

On his day he’s a classy horse and I think he can run a big race. He seems really sharp at home and we’ve put the blinkers on this time to get him sharp in the race.

15.35 Newbury – The Russian Doyen
He travelled as well as anything in the Paddy Power Gold Cup a couple of weeks ago and then made a couple of mistakes going up the hill and that stopped his momentum. Whether he didn’t get the trip or the mistakes cost him, I don’t know, but he’s won around this course and distance at Newbury and he’s proven at this trip.

We will ride him aggressively here as we know he stays two and a half miles. He’ll be bounced out and ridden prominently. He wasn’t given a hard race when he was beaten at Cheltenham so he came out of that race really well. He’s only ever won over two miles so maybe that is just his best trip.

Joe

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Paddy Brennan on five rides at Newcastle on Saturday


Newcastle
11.45pm
Castel Gandolfo
He is a brother to our very smart 2m hurdler Teqany and he made a promising debut for us when second to Breguet Boy at Musselburgh. I think it was a decent enough race too, so hopefully he has a fair shot of going one better here with that experience under his belt.



12.55pm
Ask A Honey Bee
He was a smart bumper who showed plenty of tenacity to win on his hurdling debut at Wetherby. He lost out by only a length under a 6lb penalty at Exeter last time, and that form puts him in the mix here. It looks a pretty hot race, though, it must be said, for all this has whittled down to just six runners.



1.30pm
Aye Aye Charlie
He has a good prize in him when he puts in an unblemished round of jumping, and I’d like to think he has a fair shot at this handicap off a mark of 127. I think that underestimates him and obviously the form of his Hereford second was franked when the winner followed up in the Badger Beers. I can see this race really suiting him.



2.05pm
Not So Sleepy
We may all be playing for second place if Epatante runs up to her best – well, I suppose we will be, on all known form – but she doesn’t have to underperform to a great degree to give a few of us a squeak. Not So Sleepy looked high-class when winning at Ascot last season and his form on the Flat this summer has to encourage you, as he stuck on remarkably well for fourth after going from the front in the Cesarewitch last time. Hopefully, he can transfer that form over to hurdles here, and give these something to think about.



3.15pm
Brave Eagle
Good ground is important to him, and he looks like getting that here. He has come down to a mark just 1lb higher than winning the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last year and hopefully he will have come on for his Chepstow run last month. He has each-way chances in what is obviously a competitive race, with the conditions hopefully remaining in his favour. And, of course, the first-time blinkers, which replace the cheek pieces, could help, too.

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TQ VIEW 'Best Bet': 2.25 Newbury: BOTOX HAS (e/w) - This Gary Moore horse is a classy hurder in the making and took another step forward last time out at Cheltenham. More needed taking on a useful looking Henderson runner here and having to give away 5lbs but another bold bid looks on the cards.

TQ VIEW 'Each-Way': 1.15 Newbury: COURT MASTER (e/w) - Ran well here last time out at Newbury (4th) and off the same mark looks to have every chance of going well again, albeit in a competitive race. The longer trip will help and and handles the good ground well too.

Sort by: Date/Time | Trainer

Gay Kelleway

Bolt N Brown
Sat 28th Nov 2020
13:08, Doncaster
DEC Odds: 15 (Betfair Exc)


Has run two good races over hurdles already - first and second. Trying her up slightly in trip this time as seemed to run on well last time over 2m and the good ground will also help get the trip. Archie also a bonus in the saddle taking off 7lbs as we've got a penalty here and have to give 6lbs away to most of the others. With just over 40 rides (3 wins), even though he's still learning - he's getting more experience all the time and his claim will help. Presenting Meghan and Didonato look the ones to beat but we are expecting another solid run and should go well. Each-way.
Michael Scudamore

Court Master
Sat 28th Nov 2020
13:15, Newbury
DEC Odds: 7.8 (Betfair Exc)


Run well in all his starts this season and has a decent record around here. Found 2m4f too sharp last time so the step up in trip is a big plus. Looks a very competitive race but the ground should be ideal and he looks to be still improving.
Oliver Sherwood

Weststreet
Sat 28th Nov 2020
13:22, Bangor
DEC Odds: 9.4 (Betfair Exc)


Weststreet made an uncharacteristic bad blunder last time out at Fontwell when unseating his jockey, he made no real effort to jump the fence. When I watched it live I thought he’d been blinded, but after seeing the replay it was obvious he wasn’t, a lapse in concentration can happen to any horse but he’s usually a pretty good jumper. The trip today will be on the short side for him, but he needs this ground and with little prospect of any proper rain for the time being I wanted to get him back on a course. He didn’t really fire last season for no apparent reason, he’s been very bright so far this autumn so I’m hopeful he’ll run better – as long as he can remember to jump!
Gary Moore

Botox Has
Sat 28th Nov 2020
14:25, Newbury
DEC Odds: 5.8 (Betfair Exc)


Nice hurdler that has been going the right way and has done nothing wrong winning 3 of his 5 starts. Also returned with a top win at Cheltenham last month and has come out of that race really well. The form of that race has been given a boost with Allmankind winning easily over fences since too. Trip and ground are fine - another step forward needed here as we are having to give 5lbs away to the classy-looking Henderson runner, but hoping our recent run might give us a slight edge. Looking forward to another big run.
Jamie Snowden

Pisgah Pike
Sat 28th Nov 2020
14:25, Newbury
DEC Odds: 18 (Betfair Exc)


Pisgah Pike runs in a very competitive renewal of the Gerry Feilden. His form figures read 21212 this season, and after narrowly missing out on Monday, he races here off the same mark and might have a chance of running into a place.

Paseo
Sat 28th Nov 2020
14:53, Doncaster
DEC Odds: 32 (Betfair Exc)


Paseo likes good ground and, because he’d had a quiet winter last year, I kept him going through the summer after racing was halted in March. With hindsight it was probably a mistake not to give him a summer break as he ran a bit flat in his first three outings this season. He then did have a break and, because he does everything so easily at home, he needed his recent outing at Kempton on his reappearance. He’ll be sharper for that outing and is a horse you can’t bully in a race, you need him to think he’s going well and keep him happy. He’s wearing first time cheek pieces in an attempt to help him travel.

Quiet Penny
Sat 28th Nov 2020
15:07, Bangor
DEC Odds: 7.8 (Betfair Exc)


Quiet Penny hasn't run for 602 days and is making her debut for us. She runs off a mark of only 100 here, and she certainly looks better than that mark. We've done her wind over the summer, and she looks a nice mare. She has done plenty of work, but is bound to improve for this run, however I'd like to think she can run a really nice race here and still improve for the outing.

Rollercoster
Sat 28th Nov 2020
15:07, Bangor
DEC Odds: 5.4 (Betfair Exc)


Been off the track a while before joining us, has also had a wind operation. Her form has not been great but has won a point on heavy ground in Ireland. Would have preferred to start off at 21/2m but very difficult to get in races at the moment off this rating. It looks a weak race on paper and hopefully she can be competitive off this low mark.

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NEWBURY: Key Trends For The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

4 previous runnings

All four winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
2 of the last 4 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 6 years-old
Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 4 years
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom Lacey has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track

Trainer Dan Skelton has a 3% record with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Paul Nicholls won this 12 months ago and Nicky Henderson has taken the last two renewals – therefore, the Nicholls runners Amour De Nuit and Christopher Wood, plus the Henderson entries Champagne Platinum and Rathhill are sure to be popular – the last three-named are also all previous course winners. Of that bunch, CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (e/w) looks interesting back over hurdles after not quite taking to fences. The fact Henderson, who has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track, is persisting with him catches the eye and with only seven career runs could still have more to come – Nico de Boinville rides. On The Wild Side is going the right way after two nice wins at Hexham, but this is harder so will need to step forward again – he’s still one for the shortlist. Flash The Steel has the form to go well too, but the Dan Skelton yard have just a 3% record with their hurdlers here so that would be a worry. The other main pick though is the rapidly improving TEA CLIPPER. This Tom Lacey 5 year-old beat Flash The Steel by just over 2 lengths on his return at Chepstow last month, but kept on well that day to suggest this slightly longer trip could eke out more improvement. That also came off a 247-day break so can be expected to have come on for it and is a horse that’s been taken out of a few races recently so you feel connections are trying to look after him a bit, with this good ground seemingly his favoured conditions.

2.25 Ladbrokes Gerry Fielden Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/14 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
11/14 – Irish, French or German bred
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/14 – Aged 5 years-old
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/14 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Epatante (3/1) won the race in 2019
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Nicky Henderson, won this race with Epatante 12 months ago and with that horse going onto land the Champion Hurdle then all eyes will be on his Marie’s Rock to see if she can follow a similar path – Henderson has also won this race 5 times in the last 14 years. She’s 2-from-2 over hurdles and is clearly held in high regard. She’s also had a wind op since we last saw her winning well at Taunton and actually has a quote of around 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle. She’s certainly a very interesting runner and could have a big season ahead. However, she doesn’t look great value and I think the Gary Moore runner – BOTOX HAS (e/w) – might be able to give her a race. This 4 year-old returned with a top win at Cheltenham last time out, which was his third win over hurdles from just 5 runs. He had the useful Allmankind back in third that day and that Skelton horse has since franked the form by winning over fences. Of the rest, the Nicholls runner – Thyme White is closely linked with Botox Has as he also beat a horse called The Pink’n, who also runs here, last time out, so he’s another big player, while Milkwood and Sebastopol are others to note. But it might also be worth having a small saver on the other Henderson runner in the race – FLORESSA (e/w). This 5 year-old mare is a proven CD winner at the track and if you can ignore her last run at the Cheltenham Festival when she sweated up a lot before the race, then her form is fairly solid – including a Listed Mares’ Hurdle win at this meeting 12 months ago.

3.00 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

TQ VERDICT: 18 winners carrying 10-13 or more in weight then this is a plus for the top 10 numbered in the race and with the same amount having finished in the first three in their last race then of the 18 runners this is a positive for nine – Cloth Cap, Potterman, The Conditional, Two For Gold, Aye Right, Regal Encore, Kildisart, Secret Investor and Vinndication. It’s no shock the powerful Henderson, Tizzard and Nicholls yards have dominated this race in recent years too, so their runners must be respected too. Henderson has Beware The Bear, Tizzard runs Copperhead, while Nicholls has Danny Whizzbang and Secret Investor. Having run Cyrname to 7 lengths at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase last time out, then Aye Right is a player too and you feel that if this Harriet Graham runner was trained by one of the ‘big three’ he’d probably be the clear favourite. He can go well, but the longer trip is a bit of an unknown and with just 5 career runs over fences just lacks a bit of experience for me. Ballyoptic and Vinndication are the two top-rated in the field and of the pair the Kim Bailey runner – Vinndication – is sure to be popular. This improving staying chaser was a fantastic runner-up to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall Chase last time – beaten only 2 lengths – and that form makes him the one to beat and the Bailey yard are in great shape still. He was beaten into fourth in the Ultima Chase at the Festival by another runner here – The Conditional – but was giving that horse a massive 20lbs that day so on better terms here (6lbs) there shouldn’t be a lot between them again. I think Cloth Cap can run well off a very light weight (10st), while Potterman was chinned on the line in the Badger Beers Chase last time and off just 10-6 here should be dangerous too – they both look good e/w value. But a horse that beat him prior to that run was SECRET INVESTOR (e/w) and I think this Paul Nicholls runner can run a big race. That return win came off the back of a wind op too and let’s not forget he was an excellent runner-up in the Denman Chase here at Newbury back in February. From nine Chase starts he’s been in the top two seven times (3 wins) and the way he won last time out suggests the 6lb rise in the handicap looks fair enough. Of the rest, the Tizzard runner – COPPERHEAD (e/w) – can go well too. Yes, he was pulled up last time at Wetherby but that came over hurdles and looked more of a prep outing for this. He’s also a horse that tended to need a run or two in the past and that has also been applying to a lot of the Tizzard runners in general this season too. He’s a proven CD winner at the track, plus the ground will be fine having won on good and soft in the past, while jockey Robbie Power, who has won on him before, is back in the saddle.

3.35 Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/18 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/18 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/18 – Placed in their last race
9/18 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: A good race for the Paul Nicholls yard over the years, but he’s giving the others a chance this year – he doesn’t have a runner! CD winner, Moonlighter, ran a cracker in the Haldon Gold Cup last time out and we can expect another bold show from the front, but a 5lb hike for not winning makes things harder and he’s still only got the one win from 7 runs over fences. The Russian Doyen is another CD winner, but the two I like here are IBELEO and ZANZA (e/w). The former comes from the Venetia Williams yard that won this race in 2011 and in recent weeks have certainly shown better overall stable form. He should be better for his run at Ascot last month and the form of that looks solid with the winner – Amoola Gold – running well again next time out. Then Zanza, I think, can go well too. From the Philip Hobbs team that are another yard that seem to have their horses going well at the moment and a return run when second to the useful Allmankind was a good effort. That was only his second run over fences and also just his second outing back after a break. He’s also 2-from-2 here at the Berkshire track (hurdles), so clearly likes it here and Richard Johnson rides.

NEWCASTLE: Epatante Stars In Fighting Fifth Hurdle

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/18 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/18 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
16/18 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
15/18 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
15/18 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Officially rated 151 or higher
12/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/18 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/18 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/18 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 12)
3/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 6/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: Cornerstone Lad caused a shock in this race 12 months ago when beating Buveur d’Air but the runner-up had excuses that day and this Micky Hammond runner hasn’t really been able to back up that success since. He’s fit from the flat though and expect another bold bid from the front but really he’s likely to set this up for one of the others and might have company front running with Not So Sleepy in the race too. Ribble Valley is a nice horse in the making and has won 3 of his 4 hurdles starts, but this will be his toughest ask yet. Silver Streak was third in this race last year and is a stalwart in these top-class 2m hurdles races but is placed more often than winning them – more of the same is expected here. Sceau Royal has been transformed since returning to hurdles too – winning his last two and this strong travelling sort should be going close too. But his negative is that he’s got to give a massive 7lbs away to the current Champion Hurdler – EPATANTE – and that might be a tall order. This Nicky Henderson mare has won 5 of her 6 starts over hurdles and looks primed for another big season. He’s still only 6 years-old so providing he stays injury-free then could be mopping up these big 2m hurdle races for a while. Overall though it’s a decent renewal and one that Nicky Henderson likes to support so we ca expect Epatante to be ready and even though a race-fit Sceau Royal looks a big danger, the 7lbs difference just sways it towards the Champion Hurdler.

3.15 BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Didn’t win their last race
14/16 – Irish bred
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
13/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/16 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

TQ VERDICT: The Henderson runner – Pym – will have his supporters here after a nice win at Sandown on his return, while The Butcher Said clearly got bogged down in the soft ground last time at Cheltenham and on this better surface a much improved run is expected. Whatmore is often in the mix, but with only one chase win from 7 tends to find a few too good in his races and that was the case again last time at Ascot when beaten into second by Regal Encore. The old boy Definitely Red continues to drop down the ratings and it might be dangerous to rule him out, but he was soundly beaten on this return run at Wetherby last time out and I still feel with his advancing years he needs to come down a bit more – he’s still got 11-12 to carry here too. We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – TAKINGRISKS (e/w) and despite being another old-timer (11) might be worth an interest again. He’s only 4lbs higher than last year and after a recent run at Ayr will be much sharper for this. He acts on any ground and is the only CD winner in the field – that must count for something. But in a race that plenty have questions to answer the main pick will be on THE BUTCHER SAID, back on his favoured ground. He gets in here with just 10-7 in racing weight too and despite only having four runs over fences (2 wins) he’s had plenty of overall experience (16 runs) and a solid strike-rate too – 13 top three runs from those 16 outings. Aidan Coleman rides.

del roy

Tony's Nap: Kildisart 3.00 Newbury Kildisart was aimed at the three-mile hurdle on Charlie Hall Chase day at Wetherby rather than run in the big chase and his third was a great effort. Ben Pauling's team is now in much better form and Kildisart's record of good runs in big fields over staying trips should stand him in good stead in this pre-Christmas classic. Big chance.

Tony Nb: Almazhar Garde 1.15 Newbury Almazhar Garde is still only a five-year-old but he blew away a good field at Kelso last time and the fact that a number of fences were taken out probably worked against him. In one regard though, it probably meant his rise in the handicap was less than would have been the case with a few more obstacles coming home. A great favourite and one that should keep on improving.


11:45, Newcastle
Fergal O'Brien
Castel Gandolfo
Dec Odds: 2.1 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Castel Gandolfo ran very well on stable and jumps debut at Musselburgh, finishing a promising second. His jumping is exceptional for a three-year-old and I'm very confident he'll go one better today.


12:05, Doncaster
Charlie Longsdon
Kapsize
Dec Odds: 13.5 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Kapsize is in the sale next week but before he goes there I thought it worth trying a totally different tactic. We're running him over much further than before and will be dropping him right out. In his races so far he's been a weak finisher and the hope is that this could be a way to alter that.


12:10, Newbury
Charlie Mann
Will Victory
Dec Odds: 21 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
I wasn't surprised how well Will Victory ran on her UK debut on this track, almost beating the Henderson hotpot, as her French form was very good. Today she'll have an each-way chance as this is another very competitive race.


12:35, Doncaster
Nicky Richards
Gale Force One
Dec Odds: 40 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Gale Force One is a nice filly who will enjoy today's ground on her debut. The experience will be of benefit to her.


12:55, Newcastle
Fergal O'Brien
Ask A Honey Bee
Dec Odds: 3.05 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Ask A Honey Bee is sure to go close as the form of his Exeter second was boosted when the winner followed up at Doncaster yesterday. But he does make hard work of the end of his races and there are a couple of decent horses in opposition. I think he will just about win but it's not a formality.


13:08, Doncaster
Fergal O'Brien
Tashunka
Dec Odds: 15 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Tashunka is a very smart mare but she's coming back after almost two years off the track. We're looking for a solid run to get her back in the swing of things and expect her to be keen early on and come cruising up to them before condition after so long off the track possibly tells.


13:15, Newbury
Charlie Longsdon
Almazhar Garde
Dec Odds: 15.5 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Almazhar is an improving young chaser who is taking another step up the ladder in a very competitive race. He seems to be a proper improver so we have to be hopeful he can run well again after the Kelso win.


13:15, Newbury
Kim Bailey
Rocky's Treasure
Dec Odds: 15.5 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
It was a long way to Kelso to have the jockey knocked off at the first. This is a tough race and a tough call off top-weight for Rocky's Treasure. Hopefully, he will run well and we can build on this race going forward.


13:15, Newbury
Harry Whittington
Breaking Waves
Dec Odds: 32 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Breaking Waves is new to the yard this winter having won around Exeter in heavy ground last season. He had a wind-op in the summer and has been schooling well. We're looking forward to this debut.


13:22, Bangor
Oliver Sherwood
Weststreet
Dec Odds: 10 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Weststreet made an uncharacteristically bad blunder early on at Fontwell giving his rider no chance to stay in the saddle. He made no real attempt to jump that fence and hopefully it's an error he won't repeat. That was a shame as the race was suitable in terms of trip and ground. Today's race is not a sufficient stamina test but we're running here because he might not get proper soft ground again for a while.


13:22, Bangor
Warren Greatrex
Another Emotion
Dec Odds: 21 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Another Emotion runs well fresh and has been going well at home. We think he'll be fit enough to run a big race on this seasonal return.


13:30, Newcastle
Fergal O'Brien
Aye Aye Charlie
Dec Odds: 3.6 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Aye Aye Charlie has ability in excess of resolution and could have won more races than he has. Last time he looked sure to beat El Presente at Hereford but the winner found much more. Always in with a chance but it's hard to have much confidence in him.


13:30, Newcastle
Nicky Richards
Court Dreaming
Dec Odds: 9 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Court Dreaming had been unlucky a few times recently but he got back on track with a nice win last time at Carlisle. This track ought to suit him just as well and up only 3lb for Carlisle hopefully he'll continue to progress.


13:43, Doncaster
Nicky Richards
Skiddaw Valleys
Dec Odds: 90 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
By and large Skiddaw Valleys is very consistent. We hope he will run a nice race and both the ground and track should suit him. Each-way chances.


13:43, Doncaster
Ian Williams
Ocean Voyage
Dec Odds: 190 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Ocean Voyage makes her debut for us having arrived from the Gordon Elliott stable. Probably we'll find this too competitive but at least we should get to know her a good deal better.


13:43, Doncaster
Charlie Longsdon
Jamacho
Dec Odds: 170 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Jamacho is still too high in the handicap after his heroics around Stratford in the summer and still needs to come down the weights. We'll see how we get on but he must be due a mid-winter break before long.


14:05, Newcastle
Nicky Richards
Ribble Valley
Dec Odds: 11 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Ribble Valley was very impressive in his comeback run and deserves this try in Grade I company. He's been in grand form at home and while this is by no means an easy task we expect him to run another good race.


14:05, Newcastle
Micky Hammond
Cornerstone Lad
Dec Odds: 36 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Cornerstone Lad is in brilliant shape as he lines up for another try at beating a Nicky Henderson Champion Hurdle winner. Last year he had the heavy ground to help him when seeing off Buveur D'Air the winner in both 2017 and 2018 - he fell in 2019 - and now faces Epatante on much faster ground. His preparation couldn't have gone better, winning well at Redcar and that put him spot on. Billy, who stands in for the injured Henry Brooke today was on him at Redcar and we have every confidence in his ability. Very tough, but so is Cornerstone Lad and I'm sure he won't let anybody down.


14:05, Newcastle
Hughie Morrison
Not So Sleepy
Dec Odds: 32 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
When we decided to run Not So Sleepy here we thought it might be a three-horse race but there's a bit more depth than expected and we have to be realistic about his chance. If we got the same Not So Sleepy as at Ascot last season he'd have a chance but it will take some getting as it looks sure to be a strong gallop. Hopeful rather than confident.


14:18, Doncaster
Harry Whittington
Seddon
Dec Odds: 6.8 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
It's a very competitive contest but hopefully Seddon has the class to go on and run a nice race. We are looking forward to running him.


14:32, Bangor
Warren Greatrex
Full Spes
Dec Odds: 28 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Full Spes schools well and seems fresh and well at home. He will enjoy the soft ground at Bangor today and should have benefited from the experience of his recent debut over jumps. He should be placed.


14:53, Doncaster
Ian Williams
Byron Flyer
Dec Odds: 5.4 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Byron Flyer won this race four years ago and now rising ten he still runs off a higher mark. The ground was simply too testing last time at Ascot but back on good ground today he has to run well, especially as he is starting to come down a little in the weights.


14:53, Doncaster
Warren Greatrex
Now Look At Me
Dec Odds: 7.4 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Now Look At Me was very consistent for Tom George last season and now makes his stable debut today having his first run of the year. He will like the good ground at Doncaster, has been working nicely and appears well handicapped.


14:53, Doncaster
Nicky Richards
Big Bad Bear
Dec Odds: 8.8 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Big Bad Bear had a couple of runs over fences but that didn't work for him so he's back hurdling today. This looks a good race and we'll find out whether the handicapper has his mark right or not.


14:53, Doncaster
Micky Hammond
Elysees
Dec Odds: 21 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Elysees has joined us from Fergal O'Brien where he ran two decent races, especially his second at Sedgefield last time. This looks a competitive race but he has an each-way chance on most of his form in the past.


14:53, Doncaster
Oliver Sherwood
Paseo
Dec Odds: 30 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Although we kept Paseo going on the all-weather in the summer, he had a break before his latest run over hurdles and as he does everything so easily at home he needed it quite badly. He'll be sharper for that outing and with cheek-pieces to help him travel he should run a good race.


15:00, Newbury
Kim Bailey
Vinndication
Dec Odds: 8.2 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Vinndication is the apple of my eye. This is a huge day for this horse. He almost has to win to prove he is Gold Cup class and I really do hope he is. Cheek-pieces first time could certainly help as his jumping has always been odd when schooling at Newbury, but his two left-handed runs have been good. Let's hope we see the real Vinndication.


15:00, Newbury
Ben Pauling
Kildisart
Dec Odds: 11 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
We're very hopeful with Kildisart. He couldn't be in better shape and the good ground will be ideal for him. He came out of the hurdle run at Wetherby in great heart and has continued to please us ever since,


15:00, Newbury
Kim Bailey
Two For Gold
Dec Odds: 12 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Two For Gold has the profile to run well in this race although I worry about whether he will get the trip. His two good runs over three miles offer encouragement at least. He's in great form and I'm happy with his preparation. So is he good enough? Possibly he has place chances.


15:00, Newbury
Warren Greatrex
La Bague Au Roi
Dec Odds: 26 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
La Bague Au Roi has come on nicely from her latest outing in the Charlie Hall Chase. Back on her favoured good ground today she should show the necessary improvement to put in a good run.


15:15, Newcastle
Nicky Richards
Takingrisks
Dec Odds: 28 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
The ground was good when Takingrisks won his Scottish National so that should not be a problem, but another mile would be preferable! He'll run his race in any case.


15:28, Doncaster
Hughie Morrison
Anditsnonaynever
Dec Odds: 5.4 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
I thought Anditsnonaynever was the better of the two juvenile bumper horses we had in front of the one that run at Huntingdon last week. Unfortunately he's had constant sore shins so we've had to be very careful with him. He might just need this run but he is a nice type and we hope he has a future.


15:35, Newbury
Charlie Longsdon
Western Miller
Dec Odds: 24 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Western Miller had a brilliant summer and he's now back after a nice break. A repeat of his last run at Cheltenham behind the smart Rouge Vif would give him a great chance here.


15:42, Bangor
Warren Greatrex
Irish Lion
Dec Odds: 7.6 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Irish Lion works well at home. We are hopeful he can run into a place on this racecourse debut.


16:00, Wolverhampton
Ian Williams
Kick On Kick On
Dec Odds: 5.3 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Kick On Kick On has been disappointing but after his last race Richard Kingscote - not entirely to my way of thinking - suggested we should drop him down to five furlongs around Wolverhampton. So here we all are today and hopefully Richard will be able to prove the point for us.


17:00, Wolverhampton
Brian Meehan
Sweet Bertie
Dec Odds: 26 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
When you keep hitting the bar like we have been recently it is easy to lose confidence. Where Sweet Bertie is concerned all I can say is that he's a very nice horse who looks well handicapped on his three runs so far. I think he has a great chance and it would be nice just to get the confidence going again.


17:30, Wolverhampton
William Knight
Dubai Tigress
Dec Odds: 115.91 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
Dubai Tigress is best watched. She will be more interesting when she has a handicap mark.

del roy

Do people want stuff like this up here most Saturday mornings if so, give it a thank you and if enough want it sure I will bang it up.

del roy

17:00, Wolverhampton
Brian Meehan
Sweet Bertie
Dec Odds: 26 (BetFair Exchange)
Sat 28th Nov 2020
When you keep hitting the bar like we have been recently it is easy to lose confidence. Where Sweet Bertie is concerned all I can say is that he's a very nice horse who looks well handicapped on his three runs so far. I think he has a great chance and it would be nice just to get the confidence going again.


25/1 winner