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ESRI report on the pandemics impact on housing supply and affordability

  • 17-10-2020 7:41pm
    #1
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭


    https://www.esri.ie/news/long-lasting-impact-of-the-pandemic-may-exacerbate-supply-issues-in-the-market

    I thought this would be an interesting jumping off point for a discussion about the Pandemics impact on the housing market. I would be really interested in hearing both the views of some people on the contents of this report, and indeed any other interesting reports on the Irish property market, and Irish mortgage market.

    I understand such a long article is a barrier to entry for participating, but we don't need a copy of the property market 2020 thread, so please do read the full report (20 pages) before replying.

    My take on the report:
    • They predict a 12% drop in prices by the end of 2021 in a severe scenario. The report is from the end of September, but this prediction is from an eariler report they did in May. I am wondering how much to put on this prediction because by now they had predicted a 6% drop from the start of the year.
    • They say government income supports have helped first time buyers - but in terms of housing I don't quite agree, as people on these supports have not had access to credit.
    • They predict even greater supply constraints in the medium to long term. Based on this, they seem to say that while prices might lower when credit becomes difficult, in the long run when credit availability comes back their could be a sharp uptick in prices. This means, for those waiting for the price drops, the risk is that they must time their run to avoid a possibly very sharp upturn in pricing if the credit markets get back to lending, due to constrained supply.
    • They admit that their current predictions do not account for a shift towards remote working and smaller towns, and that they need new models for these scenarios.

    What do you folks think?


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