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Dollars to Euros

  • 16-10-2020 10:19am
    #1
    Enquiring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭


    I'm looking to transfer dollars to euros. At the moment it's 1 dollar = .85 Euro. It's gone as low as .83 and it was .90 in June. Anyone in the know think it could improve soon? Maybe after the election?


Comments

  • #2
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84,762 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    My guess and it's just that would be if Trump gets back in the dollar will rise, if Biden gets in it will fall. Currently Biden is ahead in the polls but that could be fake news, lol. Currently rate is lowest in 18 months or so.


  • #3
    Enquiring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Enquiring


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    My guess and it's just that would be if Trump gets back in the dollar will rise, if Biden gets in it will fall. Currently Biden is ahead in the polls but that could be fake news, lol. Currently rate is lowest in 18 months or so.

    Why do you think that? Trump being in power is better for the American economy? I'm clueless on this, I know coronavirus is having a huge effect, the election won't have a major baring do you think?


  • #4
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84,762 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    Enquiring wrote: »
    Why do you think that? Trump being in power is better for the American economy? I'm clueless on this, I know coronavirus is having a huge effect, the election won't have a major baring do you think?

    He's better for big business and the stock market. Stocks have nearly recovered fully from the drop in March, airline and travel related stocks excluded.


  • #5
    3DataModem
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    Enquiring wrote: »
    I'm looking to transfer dollars to euros. At the moment it's 1 dollar = .85 Euro. It's gone as low as .83 and it was .90 in June. Anyone in the know think it could improve soon? Maybe after the election?

    The dollar/euro markets is so liquid, all the future possibilities are priced in. The market reckons Trump has about 30% chance of winning and Biden about 60%, so those outcomes are already priced in. By basing your currency trade on expecting one of these two things to happen, you are basically betting on that outcome with a presumably large chunk of money (say 10% of the amount of USD you hold).


  • #6
    coylemj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,624 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    He's better for big business and the stock market. Stocks have nearly recovered fully from the drop in March, airline and travel related stocks excluded.

    That doesn't mean that he's good for the dollar. The US is currenly running a massive budget defecit, the national debt has rocketed and there's big uncertainty about the trade situation with China. Covid and the election means that for the moment, Trump has lost interest in China.

    Unlike a Trump second term, the Democrats will at least make some attempt to address the defecit and Biden will quickly cobble together a new trade deal with China. Both of which will be good for the dollar.

    I would expect a major drop in the dollar if Trump gets a second term. Markets hate uncertainty and Trump is their worst nightmare. The next crisis and fall in the dollar is just one Trump tweet away.


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