Why is supply of property to buy in Dublin so low at the moment?

Shelga

Serious question. Prices haven’t dropped from what I can see, so I would have thought it would be a good time to sell, before the sh*t hits the fan in 2021, economy-wise? Not sure what the situation is like in other parts of the country, as I’m looking in Dublin.

hometruths

Shelga wrote: »

Serious question. Prices haven’t dropped from what I can see, so I would have thought it would be a good time to sell, before the sh*t hits the fan in 2021, economy-wise? Not sure what the situation is like in other parts of the country, as I’m looking in Dublin.

Dare I say it... because we have too many vacant properties...

Darc19

Don't be assuming that there will be a recession. The Irish economy has shown a lot of resilience

Household debt levels are low. There is no excess lending and interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.

Yes there's a blip with covid, and the hospitality sector has been wallopped, but many sectors are seeing substantial growth and in a recent survey (post covid) over 70% of enterprise Ireland firms expect to be adding jobs in the next 12 months.

Eric Cartman

impossible to kick out tenants at the moment, who in their right mind would take on a tenant making their property unsellable.

Geuze

Darc19 wrote: »

Don't be assuming that there will be a recession. The Irish economy has shown a lot of resilience

We had and are having a severe recession.

Income and consumption dropped sharply during 2020, employment fell a lot, and unemployment rose.

That is a recession.

It started in Q1, maybe in March.

It was and is severe.

It was cushioned by PUP, TWSS, etc., by borrowing billions.

Geuze

Shelga wrote: »

Serious question. Prices haven’t dropped from what I can see, so I would have thought it would be a good time to sell, before the sh*t hits the fan in 2021, economy-wise?

2020 is the recession.

2021 is recovery (hopefully): excess savings being spent, recovery in employment, falling unemployment.

You seem to be suggesting that 2021 will be worse than 2020?

I hope not, as 2020 is very bad.

purifol0

Geuze wrote: »

2020 is the recession.

2021 is recovery (hopefully): excess savings being spent, recovery in employment, falling unemployment.

You seem to be suggesting that 2021 will be worse than 2020?

I hope not, as 2020 is very bad.

Did you forget about Brexit?

Geuze

No, Brexit is accounted for, see DoF press release below:



https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/4b5e5-minister-donohoe-publishes-economic-forecasts-that-will-underpin-budget-2021/

Minister Donohoe publishes economic forecasts that will underpin Budget 2021
From Department of Finance
Last updated 1 October 2020


the Department of Finance’s Budget 2021 forecasts show that both COVID-19 and a disorderly end to the ‘transition period’ will have a significant impact on the Irish economy

modified domestic demand – proxy for domestic economy to fall by -6.5 per cent this year

GDP is projected to fall by -2.5 per cent in 2020 and to grow by only 1.4 per cent in 2021

impact of COVID-19 on GDP is less than previously expected, mainly due to the resilience of Multi-National Company (MNC)-dominated exports, however the hit to the domestic economy has been severe

employment set to fall by 13.8 per cent this year this with an annual average unemployment rate of just under 16 per cent this year, and 10.7 per cent in 2021

economic forecasts have been endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

thefridge2006

Darc19 wrote: »

Don't be assuming that there will be a recession. The Irish economy has shown a lot of resilience

Household debt levels are low. There is no excess lending and interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.

Yes there's a blip with covid, and the hospitality sector has been wallopped, but many sectors are seeing substantial growth and in a recent survey (post covid) over 70% of enterprise Ireland firms expect to be adding jobs in the next 12 months.

LOL what a joker!!!!

Shelga

Ok but even assuming this is as bad as the economy gets, I still don’t understand why much fewer people than this time last year are selling?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Dare I say it... because we have too many vacant properties...

Don't go there!

JohnnyChimpo

Geuze wrote: »

No, Brexit is accounted for, see DoF press release below:

Whew, that's a relief :pac:

Brexit isn't just a line item in the Budget. It's a huge rapidly-approaching economic tsunami of unknown unknowns

DubCount

You need to consider the motivation for different sellers in the market to answer this.

Mover Uppers may be delaying the move decision due to job uncertainty or just not wanting to disrupt life during lock downs.

New Builds have been disrupted by interruption to work earlier in the year, and new procedures now in place. Developers may also reduce new starts if they view an uncertain market.

Investors have been selling in large numbers for the last number of years, and many remaining are in for the long term at this stage.

Estate sales will be pretty constant as the overall death rate has not changed that much.

Overall, there is nothing significantly driving additional stock onto the market, regardless of underlying price movements. In that environment, you're not going to see piles of new property coming up for sale.

JimmyVik

Shelga wrote: »

Ok but even assuming this is as bad as the economy gets, I still don’t understand why much fewer people than this time last year are selling?

I see DubCount basically said what I was saying as i was typing it

Probably most landlords who needed to sell got out already in the last few years.
Things have been against landlords for quite a while.
Any left are probably comfortable where they are.


Also not many owner occupiers going to be moving now either. They will probably stay where they are for the next year or so.


Ive also noticed building on sites that I pass by is either stopped or at a crawl.

handlemaster

The property market has to take a hit in the new year. The covid will still be here this time next year. Even if they go a vaccine now.

Marius34

Couple of the reasons specific to Covid, that I can think of.
1) Less new builds coming on the stream.
2) Slow secondary market (People that own the house, are less likely to make a move at the moment)

witchgirl26

Shelga wrote: »

Serious question. Prices haven’t dropped from what I can see, so I would have thought it would be a good time to sell, before the sh*t hits the fan in 2021, economy-wise? Not sure what the situation is like in other parts of the country, as I’m looking in Dublin.

Maybe because arranging house viewings etc is pretty difficult in varying levels of lockdown? People not wanting a load of strangers in their house potentially spreading the virus. Just a couple of reasons.

Darc19

JimmyVik wrote: »

Probably most landlords who needed to sell got out already in the last few years.
Things have been against landlords for quite a while.
Any left are probably comfortable where they are.

There's a new group of landlords out there. (they've been there a while, but more are joining) The pension property landlord.

Rent is tax free as it goes into the pension fund. No cgt either as it's locked into the pension. Pension must be a revenue approved scheme and primarily for business owners.

There are some sensible rules and regulations to stop abuse and only ICS will provide mortgage (max 50%), but it's quite lucrative and you don't need to get the max rent. Most would prefer a long term tenant at below market rent than max rent and frequent tenant changes.

And I still say that there will be no full blown recession. Yes, we're in a technical recession, but the conditions simply are not there for any damaging recession.