Pound vs Euro post Brexit?

Apologies in advance if this seems a bit of an amateur question

I'm UK based the last 4 years and have built up a decent amount of savings in sterling. Coming back to Ireland in a couple of months and am thinking whether or not to convert now or wait until closer to the time.

I've seen in a few places in the event of a stalemate at the end of this month the pound could reach the same level of the euro, and a 10% drop in Euro isn't exactly a forgettable amount for what I've saved.

Worth playing the long game or cash out now? I've no plans to use this savings for the next year as is but have long term plans to put toward a house

bobbyy gee

I would keep it in sterling will you need the money

utyh2ikcq9z76b

Can only see Sterling going weaker

bobbyy gee

Pound euro

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2020/10/02/British-Pound-GBP-Outlook--Sterling-Traders-Should-Prepare-For-a-Volatile-Week-Ahead.html

I've already brought over what I need to cover moving and settling costs so the rest will moreless be sitting there over the next year. The question is really whether or not it will improve from 1 GBP to 1.10 EUR in that time

banie01

Very much dependent on the EU trade deal or lack thereof.
No trade deal or a limited deal without agreement on financial services and the pound as a reserve currency looks a poor bet IMO.
A drop below parity over the medium term is quite likely IMO.

banie01

banie01 wrote: »

Very much dependent on the EU trade deal or lack thereof.
No trade deal or a limited deal without agreement on financial services and the pound as a reserve currency looks a poor bet IMO.
A drop below parity over the medium term is quite likely IMO.

Good shout, worth the gamble to bring it all over I suppose, at this stage I'm fed up of pondering!

Geuze

People have been repeatedly saying that the GBP would fall to parity due to Brexit.

It hasn't happened.

It seems to find a floor about 90p.

Bad news on a FTA sends it to 92p, but there seems to be resistance at that level.

Good news sends it back towards 85p.


Bear in mind that all of this represents a large fall on pre-vote levels.




I suggest that confirmation of no future FTA, and confirmation of trading on a WTO basis would push it down towards 95p.

But I don't expect that to happen, as I expect a FTA to be agreed, even at the last minute.

So I would not be surprised to see 85p at end of year.

dotsman

If you are really worried, why don't you hedge your bets and put half into euro now? Or perhaps even leave 1/3 in sterling and put 1/3 into euro/dollar respectively?

Jim2007

Given that the BOE does not have the reserves of the ECB, FED or even the SNB for that matter, there is also the question if the bank will be able to defend the currency going forward, they had the EMU fiasco and they have had to use exchange controls in the past.... it may not just be the rate of exchange that could be an issue.