Saturday 26th September

The Tetrarch

I'm having a small win bet at 8/1 on Canaletta in the 11:00 (12:00 local time) race at Argentan, France, 2yo fillies, 2000 metres.
The only reason is she is by Scissor Kick, the sire of my filly foal, and that sire seems to be getting 2yo runners that need distance.
In her debut Canaletta was 6th, ridden by an inexperienced jockey (1 win, 19 starts), and could have been closer but was crossed in the straight and lost momentum. Today's jockey has a bit more experience.

supremenovice

I'm going with Jack Duggan in the Beresford at the Curragh.
Stable in decent form and was hampered badly in last race when tailed off.
His grandsire is War Front whos two year olds are usually well developed.
I'm taking 30/1 4 places with 365

The Tetrarch

Canaletta finished 10th of 14, in 4th early, 5th mid-race, no pace and passed by almost everything.

IAMAMORON

Curragh
3.15 Brazil
3.50 Romantic Proposal
Newmarket
1.50 New Mandate
2.25 Miss Amullet
3.00 Supremacy
3.35 Al Rufaa , Sinjarri - If Charlton's wins this he is a group horse a million times over as Charlton's are suffering seconditis and I reckon he is not on the ball atm. So worth noting if Tempus hoses up, there will be more to come.

I had a look at the Listowel card and ended up hyperventilating and shouting at my sister, she didn't need that, at all.

SonOfGoat

Some cracking racing in comparison to yesterday and a heap of bets lined up. I think it'll be a very profitable day.

12.35 Market Rasen. Aggy With It, horse is around 2/1 and being gambled on. But I'm not falling for it. Confident lay bet for me. Can't see it winning. The fav in the race, the Henderson horse looks pretty decent and will go close and possible win, but for me just a strong lay on Aggy With It.


12.50 Curragh, My Minervina, horse hasn't a hope of a place in my opinion. Laying the horse not to be in the first 3 @ around 7/2 - 4/1. Not great prices to be laying at, but very confident it won't be placed to happy to go with it.

1.05 Market Rasen, Hiconic, horse is around 8/11 -4/6 with bits of 4/5 still left, but won't be for much longer. I've had a fairly hefty win bet on the horse. Easily my best bet of the day, the horse will win easy.


1.15 Newmarket, Wootton Creek, not liking the horse for the win or the place. Laying the horse not to be in the first 3, laying at around and between 7/4 and 2/1. I get the feeling it will be finishing more towards the back of the field.

Very busy days racing, good luck to anyone betting today. Should be a nice few bob to be made.

TheMilkyPirate

Just seen the Derby winner at the curragh

Rabbit Redux

That was a remarkable run from High Definition. Any price in running.

tryfix

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

That was a remarkable run from High Definition. Any price in running.

100/1 in running, the second was backed at 1.01 with £16,000 on it. 😂

IAMAMORON

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Just seen the Derby winner at the curragh

Where have I heard that one before :P:pac:

June is a long way away. I would thread carefully, the ground looks boggy and the 3rd place is put of a sprinter. The last Beresford winner to win at Epsom was Sea the Stars.

IAMAMORON

tryfix wrote: »

100/1 in running, the second was backed at 1.01 with £16,000 on it. 😂

ouch, holy phuck. that is nasty.

Rabbit Redux

40/1 Cambridgeshire winner put up by Rory Delargy. Some call.

kksaints

Have gone for Winter Escape in the 4:30 in Listowel and Sir Bob in the 5:00.

The Tetrarch

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Just seen the Derby winner at the curragh

If it is a walking race. :cool:

Rabbit Redux

The Tetrarch wrote: »

If it is a walking race. :cool:

While I wouldn't be in a rush to back High Definition for the Derby right now, it's worth remembering that Wings Of Eagles looked as slow as a boat when he finished fourth in the Zetland over 10f as a 2yo, and was an also-ran in the Criterium de Saint Cloud afterwards. It didn't stop him from winning a Derby the following year.

madmoose

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

40/1 Cambridgeshire winner put up by Rory Delargy. Some call.

Wont hear the last of it from Kennedy, pair of boring bastards

Francie Barrett

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Canaletta finished 10th of 14, in 4th early, 5th mid-race, no pace and passed by almost everything.

Degenerate!

The Tetrarch

A bit of rooting around tells me High Definition (2018), who won the Beresford Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday, is a full sibling of Innisfree (2017) (both by Galileo out of Palace by Fastnet Rock).
Innisfree also won the Beresford, but only raced as a 2yo.

High Definition won the Beresford in a time 9.28 seconds above standard on good/yielding.
Innisfree won it the previous year in a time 14.06 above standard on heavy.
I don't place must reliance on the Dosage Index but it gives a 0.71 for both those, with an unusually high 14 stamina points of the 42 total points (4 generations).
Their dam, Palace, ran in the English Oaks and Irish Oaks.
At Epsom (good) she was 7th of 17, "11th in straight, no progress, plugged on", btn 9 1/4 lengths.
At The Curragh (good/firm), 10th on 10, btn 17 lengths.

My concerns about High Definition for the English Derby would be:
1) his pedigree would suit 14f, 16f, 20f.
2) his running style in his two races: 1st race "last at halfway"; 2nd race "held up in rear", suggests stamina.
3) his dam didn't show much pace in both Oaks.

I do like his pedigree.
You could make a case that he showed loads of pace to mow down the field on Saturday, but how good was the field?

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

A bit of rooting around tells me High Definition (2018), who won the Beresford Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday, is a full sibling of Innisfree (2017) (both by Galileo out of Palace by Fastnet Rock).
Innisfree also won the Beresford, but only raced as a 2yo.

High Definition won the Beresford in a time 9.28 seconds above standard on good/yielding.
Innisfree won it the previous year in a time 14.06 above standard on heavy.
I don't place must reliance on the Dosage Index but it gives a 0.71 for both those, with an unusually high 14 stamina points of the 42 total points (4 generations).
Their dam, Palace, ran in the English Oaks and Irish Oaks.
At Epsom (good) she was 7th of 17, "11th in straight, no progress, plugged on", btn 9 1/4 lengths.
At The Curragh (good/firm), 10th on 10, btn 17 lengths.

My concerns about High Definition for the English Derby would be:
1) his pedigree would suit 14f, 16f, 20f.
2) his running style in his two races: 1st race "last at halfway"; 2nd race "held up in rear", suggests stamina.
3) his dam didn't show much pace in both Oaks.

I do like his pedigree.
You could make a case that he showed loads of pace to mow down the field on Saturday, but how good was the field?

He's a head scratcher alright. He beat plenty of proven G2 performers in the race and there were some very well bred maiden winners in there as well. On the other hand, the opening 1mile 2yo fillies maiden was won by a half sister to Iridessa in a time 2.8 seconds faster the Beresford time. If the Beresford was a slow race then the rest of the field weren't stopping as High Definition powered past them and was going away at a rate at the finish. On the other hand why was he having to be pushed along in a slow run race?

Horses such as Pakistan Star have shown that they can be scrubbed along and finish like trains again and again at the highest level. In High Definition's case he is a very inexperienced and unfurnished lanky youngster. As a lanky young O'Brien horse he really shouldn't physically have been up to winning at G2 level at this stage of his career. Jason Weaver commented that he was so long that his backside could have finished in 3rd and he'd still have won by a neck.

Is there such a thing as a bad Beresford winner? It's a race that O'Brien targets with some of his best future 12f horses and the belief in High Definition's ability was there before the race as he started favourite.

The horse has an X factor which will be an asset to him in his races.

The Tetrarch

I agree that High Definition has quality.
He looks like a big unit, and that might suit the Newmarket mile, or the long flat Doncaster straight in the St Leger instead of the Epsom downhill, corner, and the sloping straight.