Betting advice

Juxtapose

Hi there,

So i have a predicament of a bet and hoping could get some advice from a few people here. I have a 7 team accumilator placed for 5 euro that wins 698 euro. At the moment 5 of them have won (my cash out is 148 euro).
I still have Wolves to beat Sheff Utd and Chelsea to beat Brighton.

Looking for a bit of advice here on what people think is the best option (im tempted to leave it run but worried about sheff utd v wolves).
I don't usually bet big (its mostly for fun) but obviously this is a sizeable amount of money!
I have never layed a team, nor putting big sums of cash on games so doing that has me a bit worried.
Any advice appreciated!

Here's the bet:
https://imgur.com/a/lypojaz

dobman88

Juxtapose wrote: »

Hi there,

So i have a predicament of a bet and hoping could get some advice from a few people here. I have a 7 team accumilator placed for 5 euro that wins 698 euro. At the moment 5 of them have won (my cash out is 148 euro).
I still have Wolves to beat Sheff Utd and Chelsea to beat Brighton.

Looking for a bit of advice here on what people think is the best option (im tempted to leave it run but worried about sheff utd v wolves). I don't usually bet big, so putting a big lay on has me worried.
Any advice appreciated!

Here's the bet:
https://imgur.com/a/Ep0MDXH

It's a fiver. Let it ride obvs. If a fiver is betting big. Reduce your stake.

Juxtapose

Lovely.. Thanks for your input.

The betting big was with regards to laying it.

franglan

Pity Chelsea game isint first as they are odds on to win that and would only increase your cash out if it plays out like that. You can take a big profit from your 5er bet but not sure if early cash outs are the point of such accumulators as I rarely bet more than odds on singles tbh. If the cash out winnings are sizeable to you as they stand cash out, if not ride it out, the original odds were given to you to reflect the chances of all singles winning - those odds haven't changed!

dobman88

Juxtapose wrote: »

Lovely.. Thanks for your input.

The betting big was with regards to laying it.

Fair enough. It wasnt clear, it sounded like the fiver was a big bet for you.

I'd still let it ride. As I said it's only a fiver and laying it is a load of hassle if you're not familiar with it already.

You have a bet for a decent wedge with a good chance of coming in for very little outlay. No need to over think it imo. And best of luck with it, I'll be looking for those results now.

Juxtapose

franglan wrote: »

Pity Chelsea game isint first as they are odds on to win that and would only increase your cash out if it plays out like that. You can take a big profit from your 5er bet but not sure if early cash outs are the point of such accumulators as I rarely bet more than odds on singles tbh. If the cash out winnings are sizeable to you as they stand cash out, if not ride it out, the original odds were given to you to reflect the chances of all singles winning - those odds haven't changed!

Appreciate your response. Yeah 150 quid is a big sum of money to me, so cashing out is very tempting. But as you said, the point of the accumilator is for all bets, i just didn't expect to have to make this decision!

I guess laying Wolves would require a sizeable amount (ive never done this but it seems id have to lay for upwards of 150 euro to make any kind of similar return to the cash out.

I might just let it ride and forget the cash out option exists! Thanks for your insight anyways, gave me a bit more perspective.

keane2097

Waste of time backing accumulators if you are going to give your edge back to the bookie the minute you have a chance of winning one. You'd be as well sticking your weekly fiver in an envelope and posting it to Paddy Power.

If you back for a bit of fun then let it ride, if you have any aspirations of being a non-losing punter in the long term refrain from backing mug accumulators in future. If a 150 win is a big amount for you then a mug fiver with basically no prospect of winning is too big a stake size by the way.

franglan

Just to respond to you thinking of laying wolves and as you say a sizeable amount needed to do that - I've no doubt with this approach Chelsea will let you down!

bobbyy gee

i bet once on 6 games i won 5 and lost the last i got very little back

Juxtapose

keane2097 wrote: »

Waste of time backing accumulators if you are going to give your edge back to the bookie the minute you have a chance of winning one. You'd be as well sticking your weekly fiver in an envelope and posting it to Paddy Power. If you back for a bit of fun then let it ride, if you have any aspirations of being a non-losing punter in the long term refrain from backing mug accumulators in future. If a 150 win is a big amount for you then a mug fiver with basically no prospect of winning is a deranged stake size by the way.

How is it a mug accumilator? I don't understand why you are being an asshole for the sake of it here, i was asking for general advice as I admitted i'm not a big gambler, yet you want to hammer home some point about me making "deranged stake sizes" and posting a 5er to paddy power.

No need for it when i've already said i'm in a position i find confusing, and was just looking for some constructive, friendly advice from people who might understand the perspective a little more than me.

Juxtapose

franglan wrote: »

Just to respond to you thinking of laying wolves and as you say a sizeable amount needed to do that - I've no doubt with this approach Chelsea will let you down!

haha yeah, this is probably the outcome if i was to do that. appreciate the response

Mongfinder General

You could put €100 on Sheff Utd to win (draw no bet) is 6/5. If they draw with Wolves you get your money back and lose a fiver. If Sheff Utd win you're up €120 plus €100 back less €5. If Wolves win your down €100 but can recoup your outlay by betting €250 on Brighton double chance at 5/4. This will return €325 plus €250 stake if Brighton win or draw. So your options are a €350 outlay that wins €325, a €350 outlay that wins nothing which in turn means your original bet wins earning you approx €300 profit.

Juxtapose

Mongfinder General wrote: »

You could put €100 on Sheff Utd to win (draw no bet) is 6/5. If they draw with Wolves you get your money back and lose a fiver. If Sheff Utd win you're up €120 plus €100 back less €5. If Wolves win your down €100 but can recoup your outlay by betting €250 on Brighton double chance at 5/4. This will return €325 plus €250 stake if Brighton win or draw. So your options are a €350 outlay that wins €325, a €350 outlay that wins nothing which in turn means your original bet wins earning you approx €300 profit.

Thanks for this. The game that worries me is Wolves v Sheff Utd, so tempted to do what you said and go for sheff utd draw no bet to cover it somewhat, once the outcome happens here i'd be in a better position to gamble or lay for the final leg of the accumilator.

Mongfinder General

Juxtapose wrote: »

Thanks for this. The game that worries me is Wolves v Sheff Utd, so tempted to do what you said and go for sheff utd draw no bet to cover it somewhat, once the outcome happens here i'd be in a better position to gamble or lay for the final leg of the accumilator.

True. Stick the boot into the ****ers for being such cheeky bastards offering you a cash out that low. Depending on what way you weight the side bets there's at least €340 to be made out of this. This is how they make money - by making certain choices look attractive. I was using bet365 for odds so not sure that equates with your bookie

keane2097

Juxtapose wrote: »

How is it a mug accumilator? I don't understand why you are being an asshole for the sake of it here, i was asking for general advice as I admitted i'm not a big gambler, yet you want to hammer home some point about me making "deranged stake sizes" and posting a 5er to paddy power.

No need for it when i've already said i'm in a position i find confusing, and was just looking for some constructive, friendly advice from people who might understand the perspective a little more than me.

I actually edited my post to soften some of the wording, my intention is friendly advice. I'll explain what I mean below, hopefully you will accept it in the spirit it's meant. If you don't, it might be of use to someone else.

Apologies for using the word 'deranged' in my original post, and please accept these type of bets as the 'mug accumulators' they are without any implication on my part that you are a fool for making them or anything like that. It's just the common term for these type of fun bets.

This is a fairly bog standard example of a mug accumulator. There's nothing wrong that at all, but that's the accurate term to describe it. The definition is essentially a fun bet where you pick a few teams you think will probably win but realistically there's no chance you've picked out seven popular soccer bets that the bookie has priced incorrectly. If they weren't all best price with that bookie and if you don't have good rationale for why each of them was mispriced by the bookie then you don't have an edge. When you do an accumulator on bets where you are giving up edge you are multiplying the bookies edge - this is what makes accumulators manna from heaven for the bookie and why they should only be done in very limited circumstances for specific reasons by experienced bettors (if you want to be a long term winner, again a bet like this for fun is A1). Long term these bets are losers because you're multiplying the bookies edge for him, which is what makes it egregious to cash out the odd time things fall your way and you are the one who ends up with a big edge going on to one or two remaining events.

As for your bet sizing - I don't think you'll find much advice anywhere that would encourage a stake size where 30X constitutes a big win. If €150 is a lot to you, I think €5 is too big a stake, especially on a bet that's 140/1. You'd be down 700 quid waiting for a random 140/1 shot to come in, while €150 is a lot to you. Think of it this way, if you put €1 on instead you'd be in the hunt to win roughly your €150 if the whole thing came in, and you could enjoy the buzz instead of worrying about cashing out because the amount of money involved is starting to mean something to you.

EDIT:
Sorry, just to add a bit more to this in case you don't know about it. The cash out option is even greater manna from heaven to the bookies that the multipled edge of the accumulators because they will probably shave 20%+ off the true odds your bet is currently worth. Rather than cashing out you could offer your bet to someone you know who can stand the higher stakes and they could give you a better price for it than the bookie while still being on the right side of the odds.

dubrov

Your vet is worth about 190 right now. So laying it will cost you 41 which I'd say it's pretty steep.

Betting accumulators only to lay them later is like double paying the bookies

keane2097

keane2097 wrote: »

Sorry, just to add a bit more to this in case you don't know about it. The cash out option is even greater manna from heaven to the bookies that the multipled edge of the accumulators because they will probably shave 20%+ off the true odds your bet is currently worth. Rather than cashing out you could offer your bet to someone you know who can stand the higher stakes and they could give you a better price for it than the bookie while still being on the right side of the odds.

Another way to think of this last bit that might be instructive. Again, this may be useful as a general explanation, take the cash out if you need the money.

Basically, your only way to avoid being a long term loser on these types of bets is to be lucky and bink big ones every so often at a rate that slightly outpaces the edge you should be giving up (in the mathematical long term this is impossible but for an individual you might be born under a lucky star).

The cash out option is the bookies' last ditch effort to get you to give up your luck, by offering you one last chance to take ****ty odds on the events that already came in instead of taking the huge odds you have earned by your good luck on the remaining events. You're sitting here with odds of 140/1 on a Chelsea-Wolves double that should be ~9/2. The cash out is Paddy Power giving you one last chance to give them back the bet they gave you by accident.

Juxtapose

Fair points. I definitely want to let the bet just ride now, but have worries i'll resent not cashing it out or covering it somewhat.

My big worry is that wolves haven't had a pre-season.. they have had 4 or so days together and mourninho's comments about Doherty's fitness is telling, as he would probably be ahead of the Wolves squad fitness wise. From reading the forums, their fans don't seem to confident due to the quick turnaround and most are expecting a tight game or loss.

Might just back Sheff Utd to win as a cover and hope it isn't a draw.

franglan

Juxtapose wrote: »

Fair points. I definitely want to let the bet just ride now, but have worries i'll resent not cashing it out or covering it somewhat.

My big worry is that wolves haven't had a pre-season.. they have had 4 or so days together and mourninho's comments about Doherty's fitness is telling, as he would probably be ahead of the Wolves squad fitness wise. From reading the forums, their fans don't seem to confident due to the quick turnaround and most are expecting a tight game or loss.

Might just back Sheff Utd to win as a cover and pray that it isn't a draw.

Don't do that. That's all.

Juxtapose

franglan wrote: »

Don't do that. That's all.

Happy4all

Wonder what the cash out offer is now?

JeffKenna

Hope you left that bet ride.

Happy4all

JeffKenna wrote: »

Hope you left that bet ride.

I thought Chelsea game might be trickier. Don't like their defense

dobman88

Really hope you let it ride. If so, I'm absolutely delighted for you. Great score. Well played.

Ikozma

Well, did you stick with the bet?

okidoki987

Ikozma wrote: »

Well, did you stick with the bet?

Was wondering that myself.
Anyone want to make a market (for fun) as to the outcome before he left's us know?

I'd make hedged (in some form) as slight fav, cash out 2nd fav
and "let it run" as the outsider.

spurshero

okidoki987 wrote: »

Was wondering that myself.
Anyone want to make a market (for fun) as to the outcome before he left's us know?

I'd make hedged (in some form) as slight fav, cash out 2nd fav
and "let it run" as the outsider.

I think he took the 150 Sunday night and ran .

Lumengg

The cash gain is the most evident potential benefit of sports betting.