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Political Gambling thread

  • 18-08-2020 9:20pm
    Registered Users Posts: 6,202 ✭✭✭

    Robbing the idea for this thread from the MMA forum. Basically discuss any bets that you are making or would like to hear other people's opinions on.

    I'll start off with the upcoming US presidential election. I'm about to get paid for successful bets on Biden (made in December) and Harris (from 3 weeks ago) and the plan is to reinvest my entire stake on Biden to win in November. The question is: When is the best time to pull the trigger?

    Biden is currently 1.74 (8/11) on Betfair. That has actually lengthened slightly in recent weeks. Personally, I think this is a fantastic price. My own read is that Trump has gained a kind of mythical status due to the nature of his victory in 2016 which has put an effective floor underneath his price. This persists despite the fact that generally, elections since 2016 have not gone well for him or his proxies (even where victories have happened they tended to under-perform expectations).

    This time around, Trump is trailing considerably in the polls in all of the battleground states and unlike 2016, there aren't as many undecideds up for grabs. Basically, he's a polarising figure and after 5 years of him in politics people have made up their mind about him for good or bad. Add to that, that his opponent is not also a polarising figure like was the case in 2016.

    The main dates left in the race are:

    This week: Democratic convention
    Next week: Republican convention
    29th Sep -> 22nd October: Presidential Debates

    In 2016 Trump didn't actually get much of a bump from the Republican convention and with the virtual nature of them this year they are likely to play even less a part.

    I think perhaps the Debates will be an inflection point in the market but to be honest I'm not sure in which direction. Anything could happen given Biden's propensity for making gaffes and Trump's general persona.

    Currently I'm thinking of hedging and lumping half of the money on now and then waiting until October to see if I can get a better price for the remainder. Thoughts?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 66,480 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011

    I had a tenner on Ken Clake succeeding May (as a compromise candidate to just call another referendum then retire). Not bothering betting again after that :pac:

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha

    Mod: Moved to gambling.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr

    POTUS2020 Specific:

    Other than that in the longer term:

    UKGE: No overally Maj, small chance of Lab win. The way Cummings & Co are running it so far, they've little chance, unless Patel@29 clears them out.
    Starmer appears effortlessly [email protected] for next PM.

    FRANCE22: LePen might have a chance.
    FRANEXIT<2025: @11 (currently 3rd fav).