Will Ireland ever reach temps of 30°C+ like continental Europe?

mr_fegelien

With the 2010s being announced as the hottest decade since records began, it seems climate change really is warming the earth.

Despite that, I don't think I've ever seen any city in Ireland get above 25°C. Will we see hot scorching temps like continental Europe experiences in the next 20-40 years?

compsys

mr_fegelien wrote: »

With the 2010s being announced as the hottest decade since records began, it seems climate change really is warming the earth.

Despite that, I don't think I've ever seen any city in Ireland get above 25°C. Will we see hot scorching temps like continental Europe experiences in the next 20-40 years?

Surely you mean 30º and not 25º?

Some places are at 25º right now.

cnocbui

My heating is on a thermostat, set to 20°C for the evenings and mornings and I don't usually bother turning it off due to the season. The heating has come on more this 'summer', than any I can recall in any previous summer, so this record heating must be elsewhere.

I doubt Ireland will ever regularly get days exceeding 30°. If there are any, they will be one or two days in a year at most.

Danno

mr_fegelien wrote: »

With the 2010s being announced as the hottest decade since records began, it seems climate change really is warming the earth.

Despite that, I don't think I've ever seen any city in Ireland get above 25°C. Will we see hot scorching temps like continental Europe experiences in the next 20-40 years?

Yes, absolutely - by 2040 Dublin will have average July maximums of 33°c to 36°c and out past the then suburbs the Curragh will see it's sheep replaced with camels as it becomes a desert.

Children just won't know what snow looks like anymore either.

Seriously, all this prediction stuff is akin to the horoscopes

By the way, every city on this island has recorded well above 25°c hundreds of times.

beauf

mr_fegelien wrote: »

With the 2010s being announced as the hottest decade since records began, it seems climate change really is warming the earth.

Despite that, I don't think I've ever seen any city in Ireland get above 25°C. Will we see hot scorching temps like continental Europe experiences in the next 20-40 years?

https://www.joe.ie/news/hottest-temperatures-ireland-631172


I thought I saw 29 in the car in Dublin a couple of years back.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/hottest-day-of-year-as-temperatures-reached-28-6-degrees-in-dublin-1.3128089

JCX BXC

Shannon airport recorded 32°c in June 2018.

Kilkenny Castle holds the Irish record of 33.3°c in 1887.

30°c is seen every few summers in Ireland.

alchemist33

Hopefully not. Anywhere above 27° and I have to run from shade to shade before I go on fire.

Harry Palmr

The answer to yes as it's not unusual. However the cities on the continent will always be warmer due to heat soak of large body of land. The south of England is close enough for that heat to leak across the Channel whereas we've got over 300 Kms of water between France and us.

Popoutman

alchemist33 wrote: »

Hopefully not. Anywhere above 27° and I have to run from shade to shade before I go on fire.

Usually the hot days are humid here. Dry mid-30s is pleasant, and possible to do lots of things even cycling and jogging, as sweating works. Go to 90% humidity at 30 degrees and it's hell on earth

Rikand

The mr_fegelien bot has found the weather forums. its a sad day

Gaoth Laidir

Popoutman wrote: »

Usually the hot days are humid here. Dry mid-30s is pleasant, and possible to do lots of things even cycling and jogging, as sweating works. Go to 90% humidity at 30 degrees and it's hell on earth

Almost nowhere on earth gets 90% r.h. at 30 °C, except for maybe the Gulf states, Singapore, etc. That would mean a dewpoint of 28.2 °C, which is impossible in most parts of the world, not least of all Ireland. At the hottest time of the day the r.h. is normally at its lowest, and vice versa.

beauf

I've been in high humidity in the States East coast, you have a shower dry off then are immediately drenched again. Very draining. Dry heat like on the west coast is far more pleasant.

Cars don't rust either...

sweet_trip

Rikand wrote: »

The mr_fegelien bot has found the weather forums. its a sad day

Yeah. About time I put them on ignore tbh.
Literally every forum there's some boring BS thread by them. Whataboutery galore.

cnocbui

Danno wrote: »

Yes, absolutely - by 2040 Dublin will have average July maximums of 33°c to 36°c and out past the then suburbs the Curragh will see it's sheep replaced with camels as it becomes a desert.

Children just won't know what snow looks like anymore either.

Seriously, all this prediction stuff is akin to the horoscopes

By the way, every city on this island has recorded well above 25°c hundreds of times.

The period of time when the Earth was so warm there were no ice caps, is longer than the period of time when it has had them. The current average global temperature is among the lowest the planet has seen, at around 14° C. When it doesn't have icecaps, and the average global temperature is 20-26° C, it's much closer to the 28° C ideal temperature for photosynthesis to take place and life flourishes. Current CO2 levels are low too.

Gonzo

Ireland does reach 30C-32C on rare ocassions during some summer, but even when we do most places are still in the mid to high twenties. Temperatures of 30C and above are usually very localised and depend greatly on the direction of the wind and a direct hit from a perfect plume or sustained spell of high pressure mid summer with gentle south-easterly breezes.

Dublin has a very difficult time getting above 21C in May even during decent warm spells as those spells usually have an easterly component to them and even the smallest sea breeze can lower Dublin's temperature by 4 or 5C compared to western areas due to that chilly Irish sea. By June Dublin can start to warm up if conditions are perfect and up to 25 or 26 is possible. July and August Dublin can get to 28 or maybe 29C during the perfect but rare direct hit summer plume but even then any easterly would still shave a degree or two off the maximum potential.

Cork and Waterford would be similar to Dublin in that any sort of southerly breeze or even south-easterly would bring lower temperatures there off a fairly chilly sea.

Limerick is in a better position, due to it's westerly location as the majority of our warm spells have an easterly component to them. The nearby town of Shannon is often the hottest place in the country if those temperature records from Shannon are totally accurate. As mentioned above Shannon recorded 32C during the 2018 heatwave while most other places were still in the 20s.

Galway can get very warm too during summer warmer spells, they can do particularly well from those May and June warm spells while eastern areas can be substantially cooler at that time of the year due to the Irish sea breezes.

It is frustrating that most countries around Europe including the Uk seem to break heat records regularly over recent times while Ireland does not appear to do. Most warm spells here are not direct hits and instead we get side swiped or the Atlantic takes over just as the warm air arrives.

Our island's land area is just not big enough to regularly reach 30C or more over a wider area. We are surrounded by the cool and vast Atlantic ocean to our west, north and perhaps to our south too which then joins up with the Bay of Biscay. We do not tap into hot southerlies like the UK can as we have close to 1000km of water to our south while they have less than 40km between them in France across the south-east.

We depend on that perfectly aligned windflow from a direct hit plume going from central Europe across the channel to the Uk and then across to Ireland from wales and southern England. That sort of sea track is no more than 150km in total but they need to happen preferably in mid July or August to weaken the temperature cooldown from the Irish sea.

I don't see our all time and ancient temperature record of 33C being broken any time soon or indeed in my lifetime. In order to do so we would probably need several days of sustained 20C+ uppers across the country with unbroken gin blue skies and very light winds and I am not sure this is even possible in this country.

Birdnuts

Another issue in the UK is increasing Urbanisation and the siting of weather stations - Heathrow being a prime example

JCX BXC

The lack of weather stations around the country does hamper this slightly, few places record temperatures above 30°c because there's nowhere nearby measuring it!

For example, Cork, Galway and Limerick cities do not have proper weather stations in the city, Cork has the airport which is on a hill and prone to fog and wind, Limerick has Shannon which is a spin down the road, and Galway has Athenry which is a good soon down the road.

pauldry

Interesting yes I think Ireland will reach 30c plus as the years go on but maybe 31 or 32c. I think its hard to go higher with all the sea. The temperatures in warm spells will increase over the years.

Chris_5339762

Plus we don't know exactly if that 33º reading from Kilkenny in 1887 can actually be trusted.

Oneiric 3

Fairly sure both Galway and Limerick would have reached 30c + back in June 2018. At the other end of the spectrum, I reckon Sligo would be the coldest city of all, as nearby Markee station seems to be very prone to some remarkably low temps in all seasons.

pauldry

Sligo and Markree are worlds apart in temperature.

In the famous 2010 Winter it was minus 18c in Markree but Sligo barely got below minus 10c

Also many days in Winter that are very cold there see no snow in Sligo town

Conversely in Summer many thunderstorms are recorded around Markree and it can be bone dry in Sligo town due to the coastal influence.

Sligo is about a degree warmer on average than Markree in Winter and sometimes cooler in Summer

slade_x

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Plus we don't know exactly if that 33º reading from Kilkenny in 1887 can actually be trusted.

That 33.3°C is the highest officially recognised shaded air temperature in Ireland.
According to Official extreme records The highest air temperature recorded in the 20th Century is 32.5°C at Boora, Co. Offaly on 29th June 1976

The second highest shaded air reading is 32.3°C in Roscommon July 13th 2006

https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-extreme-records#

nacho libre

I am glad we don't get temperatures in excess of 30c very often. The continent can keep those temperatures. These last few days have been ideal temperature wise.

Danno

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Plus we don't know exactly if that 33º reading from Kilkenny in 1887 can actually be trusted.

It certainly can be trusted - StratoQ has a fine article detailing the 1887 record from Kilkenny: https://www.kilkennyweather.com/index.php/1887-the-hottest-day

In addition, I remember this being discussed - perhaps on another forum - and Waterford recorded similarly high temperatures on this date in 1887 also.

If anything is not to be trusted it is the 32.0°c from Shannon in 2018 - there was a detailed discussion here on Boards about it.

EDIT: Found the thread on UKWW which is a great resource: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/115480-date-of-temperature-of-333-deg-c-at-kilkenny-in-se-ireland/

Jpmarn

I was in Limerick city on the 28th of June 18 on the day Shannon recorded 32°C Max. My car was showing 33°C in the city and on the grounds of University of Limerick.

Danno

Jpmarn wrote: »

I was in Limerick city on the 28th of June 18 on the day Shannon recorded 32°C Max. My car was showing 33°C in the city and on the grounds of University of Limerick.

Your car is not a liquid-in-glass thermometer, in a suitably sited Stevenson's Screen.

You car is a heat conductive metal box (with fanciful edges) rolling on-top of a black heat absorbing surface called tarmacadam.

Now, the Stevenson's screen at Shannon... well, that's another story.

For what it's worth, I was in UL that day and it wasn't 33°c.

Danno

slade_x wrote: »

That 33.3°C is the highest officially recognised shaded air temperature in Ireland.
According to Official extreme records The highest air temperature recorded in the 20th Century is 32.5°C at Boora, Co. Offaly on 29th June 1976

The second highest shaded air reading is 32.3°C in Roscommon July 13th 2006

https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-extreme-records#

I've read that there are questions hanging over the 33.3°c at Kilkenny - despite the good research carried out into it's validity. The aforementioned UKWW link should inform any reader about it.

spurious

We had five days during the 1976 heatwave where it was 32 at least one place in the country. I don't remember the heat really. I just remember brown grass everywhere.