CAP budget agreed

endainoz

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/cap-budget-agreed-for-the-next-7-years/

So this has happened, I know we don't have a full breakdown or anything but what are people's thoughts?

jaymla627

endainoz wrote: »

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/cap-budget-agreed-for-the-next-7-years/

So this has happened, I know we don't have a full breakdown or anything but what are people's thoughts?

The lowly farmer has been made the Eu scaraficial lamb by the looks of it, 58.4 billion was total cap spend in 2019, over 7 years that would be 408 billion so they have knocked the guts of 7.5 billion a year of the cap budget, anyone on high entitlements will be losing 35-50% of their value over the next few years, and the funding for pillar two schemces that was meant to transition all of us to organics has been decimated, all in all unless the Irish goverment stumps up some serious funding to cover the eu deficit, the drystock/tillage men will see a massive reduction in income with a reduced sfp and huge costs increases through new enviromental compliance

_Brian

jaymla627 wrote: »

The lowly farmer has been made the Eu scaraficial lamb by the looks of it, 58.4 billion was total cap spend in 2019, over 7 years that would be 408 billion so they have knocked the guts of 7.5 billion a year of the cap budget, anyone on high entitlements will be losing 35-50% of their value over the next few years, and the funding for pillar two schemces that was meant to transition all of us to organics has been decimated, all in all unless the Irish goverment stumps up some serious funding to cover the eu deficit, the drystock/tillage men will see a massive reduction in income with a reduced sfp and huge costs increases through new enviromental compliance

Can’t see a government made up with Green Party just dump on money to keep the status quo.

wrangler

jaymla627 wrote: »

The lowly farmer has been made the Eu scaraficial lamb by the looks of it, 58.4 billion was total cap spend in 2019, over 7 years that would be 408 billion so they have knocked the guts of 7.5 billion a year of the cap budget, anyone on high entitlements will be losing 35-50% of their value over the next few years, and the funding for pillar two schemces that was meant to transition all of us to organics has been decimated, all in all unless the Irish goverment stumps up some serious funding to cover the eu deficit, the drystock/tillage men will see a massive reduction in income with a reduced sfp and huge costs increases through new enviromental compliance

Great Britain won't be drawing out of the new CAP budget so the reduction in the budget mightn't be that bad. but even saying that, it's difficult to see how the payments can be €200/ha across Europe, not all countries have payments per ha as high as we have out of the CAP. Are they going to take money from countries with the higher budgets
Half of EU farmers get less than €1000 in subs, the last time I was in eastern Europe they were getting about €50/ha, is our money now going to there

_Brian

wrangler wrote: »

Great Britain won't be drawing out of the new CAP budget so the reduction in the budget mightn't be that bad. but even saying that, it's difficult to see how the payments can be €200/ha across Europe, not all countries have payments per ha as high as we have out of the CAP. Are they going to take money from countries with the higher budgets
Half of EU farmers get less than €1000 in subs, the last time I was in eastern Europe they were getting about €50/ha, is our money now going to there

Fatal mistake there.

It’s not “our money” it’s money given in return for compliance to standards etc.

Literally every cent coming from Europe can be redirected at the stroke of a pen.

jaymla627

_Brian wrote: »

Fatal mistake there.

It’s not “our money” it’s money given in return for compliance to standards etc.

Literally every cent coming from Europe can be redirected at the stroke of a pen.

When the tipping point is reached that compliance to standards costs more then the cheque in the post every oct/dec for commercial farms, you will have lads going rogue, of course youll reply that theyll get you by hook our by crook if you dont dance to their drum but i cant actually see the money been their to enforce their rules and regulations, its not even illogical that the Eu could break up in the next decade

_Brian

jaymla627 wrote: »

When the tipping point is reached that compliance to standards costs more then the cheque in the post every oct/dec for commercial farms, you will have lads going rogue, of course youll reply that theyll get you by hook our by crook if you dont dance to their drum but i cant actually see the money been their to enforce their rules and regulations, its not even illogical that the Eu could break up in the next decade

I wouldn’t argue at all.

Like it or not Europe doesn’t fear food shortages any more. When CAP was dreamt up it was an effort to ensure food security for Europe above all else.

But the administrators of Europe no longer see food security as the purpose of CAP. In time it will lend itself to greener things. I don’t see the Green Party shoring up direct payments while allowing derogation etc continue, does anyone think they will ??

The Irish government won’t have the money to give with the costs of Covid a much bigger issue, particularly with non food security worries.

I’d be happy to see 100% direct payment moved to biodiversity supporting measures. Let the viable farms survive if they feel intensive farming without supports is for them.

Interesting times ahead.

endainoz

_Brian wrote: »

I wouldn’t argue at all.

Like it or not Europe doesn’t fear food shortages any more. When CAP was dreamt up it was an effort to ensure food security for Europe above all else.

But the administrators of Europe no longer see food security as the purpose of CAP. In time it will lend itself to greener things. I don’t see the Green Party shoring up direct payments while allowing derogation etc continue, does anyone think they will ??

The Irish government won’t have the money to give with the costs of Covid a much bigger issue, particularly with non food security worries.

I’d be happy to see 100% direct payment moved to biodiversity supporting measures. Let the viable farms survive if they feel intensive farming without supports is for them.

Interesting times ahead.

Very interesting, I suppose we really should have expected a CAP cut from dealing with Brexit alone but with covid on top of that, the cut was inevitable.

Intensive guys get badly cut payments wise will have the argument that they deserve payments from all the investment they've put into their farms. The farmers pushing for nature and the environment will argue that intensive shouldn't be getting paid to pump land full of chemicals and overall degrading soil.

I can understand both arguments to be honest.

TooOldBoots

We should take back our fisheries so. I don't see any other EU state having to give up huge fishing territories in return for f-all

Bass Reeves

This time biggest payment is being front loaded. In 2022 minimum payment/HA will be 200/HA, this to increase to a minimum of 215/HA. Max BPS 100k to be brought in but labour costs may be allow for above that. There is unlikely to be upward only convergence as budget is shrinking.

Any lad that bought low value entitlements since 2016 is on a winner. Those 30-50 euro entitlements are worth 300 in two years time they were probably bought for face value or less back then.

With an EU and our average very similar at 250/HA all change will have to be internally.I expect that higher entitlements will be hit hardest as well there may be a push to save mid sized operations who could be hit hardest.

This also shows that if we are looking for higher income we need to look at the market and processor's not the EU

_Brian

endainoz wrote: »

Very interesting, I suppose we really should have expected a CAP cut from dealing with Brexit alone but with covid on top of that, the cut was inevitable.

Intensive guys get badly cut payments wise will have the argument that they deserve payments from all the investment they've put into their farms. The farmers pushing for nature and the environment will argue that intensive shouldn't be getting paid to pump land full of chemicals and overall degrading soil.

I can understand both arguments to be honest.

Look to public sentiment.
There is growing pressure from the public and lobby groups to move to greener more biodiversity friendly systems. I think on time that, along with a Green Party presence are cabinet table will see money move away from commercial systems to extensive farms where true biodiversity measures are happening. Probably not immediately but it will happen.

Next election here is likely to see a marginally stronger left vote with SF fielding more candidates. That makes a left centric government more likely on time, will that be a year, two years or five, i for one can’t see the current government making full term. An impending and inevitable change of leader will see a different stance from the greens at the cabinet table, of the three parties in power they have the least to fear from a collapse as votes continue to swing left.

You will quickly see Teagasc realign itself to a greener agenda to ensure their funding streams are kept strong.

endainoz

_Brian wrote: »

Look to public sentiment.
There is growing pressure from the public and lobby groups to move to greener more biodiversity friendly systems. I think on time that, along with a Green Party presence are cabinet table will see money move away from commercial systems to extensive farms where true biodiversity measures are happening. Probably not immediately but it will happen.

Next election here is likely to see a marginally stronger left vote with SF fielding more candidates. That makes a left centric government more likely on time, will that be a year, two years or five, i for one can’t see the current government making full term. An impending and inevitable change of leader will see a different stance from the greens at the cabinet table, of the three parties in power they have the least to fear from a collapse as votes continue to swing left.

You will quickly see Teagasc realign itself to a greener agenda to ensure their funding streams are kept strong.

I do like your optimism, but looking at public opinion, regardless of their left leaning ideals, they still have little time for farmers in general. They think we get too much money for doing nothing and that all farmers don't care about the environment. I'd love to see that opinion change over time, perhaps Pippa Hacket could be a voice of reason within the department.

I agree with you that this government won't last it's full term, I'd be surprised if it lasts half that time.

With regards to teagasc changing their agenda, it would be about time. With the obvious exception of their organic department, they would have very little interest in biodiversity. A friend of mine in North Clare was looking into partial organic conversion, and trying to get information about it before the scheme opens up again. All advisors he spoke to about it tried to talk him out of the idea, using analogies like: going organic is like having a Ferrari in the garage and driving a Micra instead. I had already lost faith in teagasc by that point but hearing that kind of hit it home for me.

pat73

What I can see happening is we will be all made live in a town or city.we will get payments for growing trees or some thing green so we are saving the world.all our food will come from south america where they will cut every tree that's standing or burn it and every illegal medicine for animals that would have put us in jail will be freely used by the south Americans on their animals.what they cant supply we will get it from Asia where ant thing goes.all these decisions made by people who never set foot on a farm

Cattlepen

Would there be a chance that entitlements as we know them could be scrapped altogether and the whole payment simplified? What do youse think?

_Brian

Cattlepen wrote: »

Would there be a chance that entitlements as we know them could be scrapped altogether and the whole payment simplified? What do youse think?

Not a hope.
Vested interests won’t let meaningful changes happen.

_Brian

pat73 wrote: »

What I can see happening is we will be all made live in a town or city.we will get payments for growing trees or some thing green so we are saving the world.all our food will come from south america where they will cut every tree that's standing or burn it and every illegal medicine for animals that would have put us in jail will be freely used by the south Americans on their animals.what they cant supply we will get it from Asia where ant thing goes.all these decisions made by people who never set foot on a farm

Essentially your not far wrong.
Eurocrats will happily buy beef from Brazil because it exports the whole responsibility of farming sensibility here.

Birdnuts

My understanding is that the "Greening" is to be scrapped(it was largely ineffective anyway) and replaced largely with Enviro schemes which are optional but failure to sign up will see a significant cut in your SFP. So basically while Pillar 2 looks like being cut, much more of Pillar 1 one money will be going into the likes of a new GLAS etc,

Earnshaw

If 20% of the new BPS payment is going to come from Opt-in Eco-schemes, will that mean it is coming from the likes of REPS?

Bass Reeves

Earnshaw wrote: »

If 20% of the new BPS payment is going to come from Opt-in Eco-schemes, will that mean it is coming from the likes of REPS?

Greening is 40% of your payments. Of they use it an opt in will intensive dairy farmers opt in or out. As well it will limit how much huge feedlots with minimal land can draw in greening schemes.

New agri environment schemes could take a lot of land out of intensive agri. As well there will have to be a payment for wetlands, overgrown area's, wider hedgerows and area's with rushers or furze

Earnshaw

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As well there will have to be a payment for wetlands, overgrown area's, wider hedgerows and area's with rushers or furze

Any idea when will details be made available on this sort of thing?

Bass Reeves

Earnshaw wrote: »

Any idea when will details be made available on this sort of thing?

It will be interesting to see if some changes are made for next year's schemes. However there will be resistance from the intensive section of farming just like with the grass fed beef proposals

endainoz

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if some changes are made for next year's schemes. However there will be resistance from the intensive section of farming just like with the grass fed beef proposals

Will the EU push against the intensive farmers though? It's hard to know, plenty of corporate interests would like to keep the status quo.